Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's dependent on the track of the mid-level cyclones. The UKMET for example tracks the 850mb low up the NJ coast and over the city, so the city East torches. oh ok thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I had a feeling the Euro was going to shift east after seeing all of the gefs and ggem ensembles near the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Lakes low is acting like a kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How does that mean nothing, the piece of energy is the key to the whole setup, the stronger that is, the more east/weaker solution, which is what we want to get snow, and not mostly rain. and clearly as weve gotten closer since last nights runs the models have figured out its gunna be stronger...it would make zero sense for them to figure that out this close to then only lose that idea again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colette11 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 oh ok thank you you might want to take it easy on the sarcastic replies on this board. these people are extremely knowledgeable and the board doesnt tolerate newbies that bring sarcasm and insulting someones intelligence. just an FYI for you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Your location is pretty awful for backend snows. They are far more commonplace to the N&W of NYC just based on storm structur climo/geography, etc. Furthermore, there is a distinction here. I'm not sure if the definitions are cut and dry, but i think of one category as describing what happens when the surface low passes to your west (or overhead), you go to rain then dryslot, and then snow comes back in on the back side. I agree, that phenomenon is rare, especially for your locale. But, another case is when a storm passes to your south and east but the winds don't back to the north until it passes your longitude. This can mean sleet or rain on the front end over to heavy snow on the back side of the low. That is actually fairly commonplace, IMO. That's what we had here during feb 13 and we finished with 14". I don't think that's the case here. With the euro now in the good camp for the coast as far as track and flow it's going to come down to rates. If we get some 30 plus DBZ type stuff after sunset Wednesday with a nice north flow it's going to accumulate even at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF held its course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Admittedly with t day coming I'vebeen out of the loop here but my one big question is where is the surface cold air source and how long does it take to get here? certainly watch the dews and wet bulbs in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colette11 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 sarcastic becaused i thanked him for explaning something i didnt understand...really...maybe u get ur intelligence level up to see i wasnt being sarcastic Wow.. welcome to this board.. have a feeling you wont be here long.. i actually misquoted you.. my reply was towards your repsonse to Teleconnect snow instead.. enjoy your day.. smh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ncep down for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ncep down for anyone else? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREFs got wetter and maybe a touch colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 ncep down for anyone else? SREFs held its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like a fair number of SREF members are tucked into the NJ coast with a few eastern outliers skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like a fair number of SREF members are tucked into the NJ coast with a few eastern outliers skewing the mean. Yeah, deffinetly a lean to the west. Almost like the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The track fits with the rest of the guidance, ie east of the ukie. It is west leaning though so take that for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, deffinetly a lean to the west. Almost like the UKIE. I had not even looked at hour 57. Looks like most members are inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That might be enough to expand the watches one more tier of counties south and east. I would say definitely for Hudson County (Weehawken, Hoboekn, JC, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mt holly .... THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIALCHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT. WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALLRATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMALAXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDEROF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES ORPOSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF ISGREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES ANDOBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACETEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THERISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLYWHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCHAMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TOWARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That might be enough to expand the watches one more tier of counties south and east. For now, looks like Upton updated the verbiage in its HWO. Extent of watch area looks like it remained the same. "DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...RAIN...AND WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ080&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ080&local_place1=Wyandanch NY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=40.74431&lon=-73.36458#.VHOK-Z0o6tU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 TO: ALL EASTERN REGION WFOS AND RFCSFROM: ERH WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... WE ARE SCHEDULING A COLLABORATION CALL TODAY WITH WPC AND OUR OFFICES TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY IN OUR FORECASTS. THE CALL WILL BE AT NOON EASTERN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW VIA NIMNAT MESSAGE LATER THIS MORNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ERH&product=ADM&format=CI&version=3&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 18z NAM is coming in more amped so far, still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ensemble mean tracks from OBX to the benchmark. Pretty classic track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.2 inches of liquid back into NNJ KNYC is safe with that look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro ensemble mean tracks from OBX to the benchmark. Pretty classic track.Looks like allot of Long Island people are going to ask for their towels back.It's still going to be a sloppy storm outside of areas under 800'. What I think will be the big surprise is where ever the best banding and highest rates setup could eek out the hugest totals despite if it's on the coast.just going with the trend the last few years some place like colts neck in the Monmouth snow mountains could be a surprise winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.2 inches of liquid back into NNJ KNYC is safe with that look . Got rid of a lot of those far western members...strong agreement and cluster near B/M track now with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.2 inches of liquid back into NNJ KNYC is safe with that look . that's a classic look indeed. I'd be getting excited if I lived 20 miles n&w of the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Got rid of a lot of those far western members...strong agreement and cluster near B/M track now with the EURO +1... I am in Long Hill Twp (southern tip of Morris County)... with yesterday Euro we were borderline of 2 inches or 6+ probably mixing issues. With the move the Euro went, we look solid as suburbs outside of NYC.. I think we definitely based on Euro track now score 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like I am going to be doing some cheerleading for you guys on this one. Just too early in the season to count on big snows this far out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 that's a classic look indeed. I'd be getting excited if I lived 20 miles n&w of the big cities. West of JFK and the GSP may fit warning criteria . At only 5 to 1 Minus 2 at 850`s 33- 34 BL with 32 DP on a NE wind may support warning snow Maybe as far east as the Wantagh on Long Island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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