NYY_2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's hard for me to remember a more impactvile event than what this is progged to be. You have accumulating snows at KPHL, KEWR, KJFK & KBOS during the heart of the busiest travel day of the year. I have family flying from KBOS to KJFK Wednesday 5:30 pm. I assume it will be delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's hard for me to remember a more impactvile event than what this is progged to be. You have accumulating snows at KPHL, KEWR, KJFK & KBOS during the heart of the busiest travel day of the year. Thankfully along I-95 surface/ground temperatures will be way too warm for any accumulations on major roadways, bigger concern is north & west of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I dunno, the fact that this storm is occurring in the middle of the week might mean the weekend rule is on the fritz this season, which would naturally imply lower snowfall overall. Combine that with the fact that it's still November and you have some bad juju for the remainder of the season (until President's Day, which has its own good luck and can easily reverse an erstwhile curse). We should toss all of the models past this week. I haven't seen any of them show snow for December 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wxbell has 9 inches for central park. What about Nassau and Suffolk counties? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That might be enough to expand the watches one more tier of counties south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I have family flying from KBOS to KJFK Wednesday 5:30 pm. I assume it will be delayed They will be better off driving. Usually when this happens the airlines will cancel flights and get planes to airports where they can be used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wxbell has 9 inches for central park. I thought we went over this last year? Wxbell snow maps are over inflated and do not take into account ratios into their algorithms. I'd cut wxbell snow amounts by 2/3. 3" for central park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What about Nassau and Suffolk counties? Thank you We don't post WxBell Euro snow total maps because they aren't accurate. Give me your location on Long Island and I can give you a more accurate estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We don't post WxBell Euro snow total maps because they aren't accurate. Give me your location on Long Island and I can give you a more accurate estimate. I see. Roslyn Heights, northern Nassau. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Call me wrong, but wasn't the Para GFS from like 4-5 days ago the first to show a nor-easter then it completely lost it? And the EURO began to show it that night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 what are the implications for s shore of nassau, say towards the N/S border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So the Euro moved toward the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To get 8:1 ratios you're going to want 850's to be colder. They hover around -0C to -2C on the coastal plain for most of the storm. Does someone have that table handy which shows what 850mb temps are best for dendrite growth? I believe -4C to -8C is optimal. Dendrites are most favored to grow in temperatures near -15C with supersaturation with respect to ice. So a nearly isothermal layer around -15C with decent vertical motion would be ideal for that type of crystal growth. However, you can have a small layer with favorable conditions for dendrites but have the greatest lifting (and thus best depositional crystal growth) at warmer or colder temperatures. For instance, today's 12z GFS had the best lift at 21z for LGA between 650 and 700 mb, where temperatures are forecast to be around -5C. That would favor more needles/columns and maybe small plates, both of which don't aggregate as well and have greater area densities and thus will result in lower ratios. A few dendrites or plate crystals growing aloft may collect the needles and columns but will still result in higher density aggregates compared with if they were composed primarily of dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I see. Roslyn Heights, northern Nassau. Thank you 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm pretty surprised the Euro didn't continue to push a bit further west or at least stay on track. It shows around 4-6" for NE NJ here I'm guessing ? (Realistic amounts.....not the clown maps there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm pretty surprised the Euro didn't continue to push a bit further west or at least stay on track. It shows around 4-6" for NE NJ here I'm guessing ? (Realistic amounts.....not the clown maps there) verbatim more that that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm pretty surprised the Euro didn't continue to push a bit further west or at least stay on track. It shows around 4-6" for NE NJ here I'm guessing ? (Realistic amounts.....not the clown maps there) 4-8" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So the Euro moved toward the GFS solution yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Rough breakdown 10-14" higher elevations > 40 miles NW of NYC 8-12" for areas near 287 in NJ and NY 6-8" for the immediate western burbs 6-8" northern Nassau County 3-6" in the city 2-4" south of 78 in NJ 4-6, 2-4, 1-3 rest of LI. More the further north and west you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Long time lurker through the years. Haven't posted yet. I'm just north of Route 80-287 junction in Morris County. What's likely in that area? Thank you. ==EDIT=== Sorry..just missd your breakdown. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Rough breakdown 10-14" higher elevations > 40 miles NW of NYC 8-12" for areas near 287 in NJ and NY 6-8" for the immediate western burbs 6-8" northern Nassau County 3-6" in the city 2-4" south of 78 in NJ 4-6, 2-4, 1-3 rest of LI. More the further north and west you are. Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Long time lurker through the years. Haven't posted yet. I'm just north of Route 80-287 junction in Morris County. What's likely in that area? Thank you. ==EDIT=== Sorry..just missd your breakdown. Thanks! 7-11 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm... It's a bit colder on the north shore than in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Rough breakdown 10-14" higher elevations > 40 miles NW of NYC 8-12" for areas near 287 in NJ and NY 6-8" for the immediate western burbs 6-8" northern Nassau County 3-6" in the city 2-4" south of 78 in NJ 4-6, 2-4, 1-3 rest of LI. More the further north and west you are. How about for TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm... I think it is because we get more overall precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's a bit colder on the north shore than in the city. so basically i guess what im asking is this whole time when some of the models were showing that there would be accumulating snowfall from the city west has it always included northern nassau as well or just this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How about for TTN? 4-6, 6-8" Please try and limit the IMBY questions. It's not really important at this juncture anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 so basically i guess what im asking is this whole time when some of the models were showing that there would be accumulating snowfall from the city west has it always included northern nassau as well or just this run? It's dependent on the track of the mid-level cyclones. The UKMET for example tracks the 850mb low up the NJ coast and over the city, so the city East torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow, if the Euro verifies Thanksgiving travel will be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Isaw dt response ,said not changing anything and that basically nothing changed, including the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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