IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 And 2"+ for NYC and LI.I didn't post about the city because I don't think it's accurate. Should be more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Snowmap shows 6-12 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Very impressive phase with the southern stream this run. The lack of blocking lets the very amped up solution ride closer to the coast instead of out near the BM. It would be nice to get a little less tucked in for the coastal crew in later runs. We would probably need a slower phase for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The warm surge gets to JFK so Long Island is warm, but from KNYC west this one run is a paste job and that includes MC from the GSP west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 the euro could be too amplified... i think there will be a good front end dump even if there's mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yes. NW folks bias at play in this thread. that's a heavy wall of precip at 18z wednesday. wish i could see 700mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The warm surge gets to JFK so Long Island is warm, but from KNYC west this one run is a paste job and that includes MC from the GSP west . Only dynamic cooling would help us on LI. Who knows the EURO may be too warm, too early to tell but its a great run nonetheless paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 At 114 700mb is below freezing in the city. 700mb tracks right over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Has a very Snowicane look to it . Rain to JFK and everyone W of there got blitzed . 1 OP run so I would not be worried right on the coast . This system is deepening on every run to the tune of 15 to 18 MB in 12 hours . So I would not be shocked if there was some significant banding to the west of the best forcing accompanied with Thunder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 111 city is above freezing at 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 (Euro + SE Bias GFS / 2) and we all win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 111 city is above freezing at 700mb Precip is very light by hour 114 and less then .25" falls after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Has a very Snowicane look to it . Rain to JFK and everyone W of there got blitzed . 1 OP run so I would not be worried right on the coast . This system is deepening on every run to the tune of 15 to 18 MB in 12 hours . So I would not be shocked if there was some significant banding to the west of the best forcing accompanied with Thunder . Would like to see the ensemble mean closer to 70W than 72W. Those 2 degrees make the whole difference here for coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Precip is very light by hour 114 and less then .25" falls after. Right at 108 under the heaviest precip KNYC minus 2 at 700 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That's some fairly warm water for the coast to overcome; like everything else, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 108 is the only iffy panel for the city. This is rain or a mix for LI verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Precip is very light by hour 114 and less then .25" falls after.it looks like minor dryslot snizzle after a wall of heavy snow in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Would like to see the ensemble mean closer to 70W than 72W. Those 2 degrees make the whole difference here for coastal sections. At 108 your 850`s are Minus 2 with .6- .7 already fallen . At 114 there`s a warm surge but 50 miles in 4 days is a hair . Agree a click right and most are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What a great run outside of Long Island. Arguably outside of the South Shore because it's borderline north of the LIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 (Euro + SE Bias GFS / 2) and we all win! It's a nice compromise right now and the Euro has been known to over amplify systems but any snow event this early is always going to be a close call for coastal sections. I'd feel really good though being in the interior right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What a great run outside of Long Island. Arguably outside of the South Shore because it's borderline north of the LIE. Yea currently on the EURO i would be getting 33 and rain with a little front end thump and NYC west gets pasted with 6"+. Its still 5 days out so im hoping for an easterly jog so i just dont get slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What a great run outside of Long Island. Arguably outside of the South Shore because it's borderline north of the LIE. It's a great run for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 At 108 your 850`s are Minus 2 with .6- .7 already fallen . At 114 there`s a warm surge but 50 miles in 4 days is a hair . Agree a click right and most are safe. Yeah, that 210KT jet entrance region could help crank out some impressive precip totals along with the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's a great run for everyone10" of paste is a lot greater than 2" of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 10" of paste is a lot greater than 2" of slop Who is saying that this run is the final outcome?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 10" of paste is a lot greater than 2" of slop Are you spiking the football 4 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah, that 210KT jet entrance region could help crank out some impressive precip totals along with the phase. gfsNE_250_spd_096.gif The whole column is cool and pretty uniform . There is going to be a warm punch of air because this thing is bombing and the 850`s Minus 3 and Minus 5 into the LHV BL is 32- 34 almost everywhere from Nassau County west . I would not worry about RS line . The models are seeing the orientation better today so I like every storm here the details are a few days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 hi im a new member just wanted to ask this question i know its still a long ways out but as the EURO stands right now would huntington in western suffolk on the north shore be seeing any snow? Just wanna have an idea for travel purposes thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro takes the center over Providence . Not ideal for KNYC east , you want to see that a shade East of Nantucket . Small details and a day 4 super amp job . Some big time lows Friday AM over the snow cover . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Best case scenario has the storm move rapidly from Hatteras to the Cape; I'm talking a forward speed in excess of 35 kts...thus limiting the potential for warm ocean air to work its way into the circulation...a slow mover would almost certainly see a changeover well into the interior...there was a November storm a few years back off the New England coast...began as snow over much of upstate NY...but it sat out over the waters east of the Cape for such an extended period that the circulation became contaminated with warm maritime air; eventually rain worked in as far west as the lower elevations of western NY state; including Buffalo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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