IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 1"+ liquid contour runs well into E PA and the city is closer to 1.5"+ liquid. Those with some elevation will be greatly benefited with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z KNYC 850s hr 66 - 2 hr 72 - 2 BL hr 66 34 hr 72 34 Center 992 12z KNYC 850`s hr 54 - 3* hr 60 - 4* BL 34 for both . Center 998 . Its a tad E of 0z . its precip shield at 12z is actually stronger and further west than at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Per NE NYC is about 1.2" QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Borderline areas are going to like this run. I am not saying Jersey shore/LI... but areas immeditely by the NYC suburbs that are a little n/w will like this run. Yeppers. I'm riding this one out at the in-laws just east of Westwood, NJ and am pretty stoked. I think a warning level snowfall is more likely than not at this point for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ohhhh so now everyone like the euro lol jk I'm glad to see it get exciting within 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Please don't ask for the snow maps, they are a joke and I won't post them. 6:1 is a safe bet on the coast and 10:1 well inland so use those numbers to figure out the possible accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Are they all pink.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can't wait to see what DT says about this EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeppers. I'm riding this one out at the in-laws just east of Westwood, NJ and am pretty stoked. I think a warning level snowfall is more likely than not at this point for them. Enjoy! I get the honors of traveling Wednesday late morning from Morristown NJ to Poughkeepsie to the inlaws... i dont know how I will make it there to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A couple inches would be more than enough and it'll be a good omen for the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Any snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Please don't ask for the snow maps, they are a joke and I won't post them. 6:1 is a safe bet on the coast and 10:1 well inland so use those numbers to figure out the possible accumulations. Would 8:1 be fair for TTN or closer to 6:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 this run is mostly/all snow for nyc IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Would 8:1 be fair for TTN or closer to 6:1? 7.8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Would 8:1 be fair for TTN or closer to 6:1? 6:1, 850's only get to about -1C before precip starts to taper, maybe -2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Is the shortwave coming across the nation acting as a kicker to move this a tad east each run? Also weaker by a few mb? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A couple inches would be more than enough and it'll be a good omen for the rest of winter. It really doesn't mean anything beyond this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 this run is mostly/all snow for nyc IMO Completely agree, it doesn't get much better than that for the grand majority. Everyone happy from Sullivan County to Long Island except for parts of Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Would 8:1 be fair for TTN or closer to 6:1? 8:1 would be a good call for you. That's the number I'm going with and I live in Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To get 8:1 ratios you're going to want 850's to be colder. They hover around -0C to -2C on the coastal plain for most of the storm. Does someone have that table handy which shows what 850mb temps are best for dendrite growth? I believe -4C to -8C is optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It really doesn't mean anything beyond this weekStatistically no but it'll calm weenie fears especially during the upcoming mild stretch starting this weekend. Things could get rough in here when we get highs in the 60s multiple times in the first half of December.This is all assuming things go according to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These BLs and 850`s are very uniform from LGA West Its Minus 4 in the LHV and 32 and Minus 3 and 34 at 54 in and around the city . At 60 its Minus 4 in the LHV Minus 3 at KNYC the BL is 31 in the LHV and 33 in and around the city . There is no real warm punch of air west of the NS boarder and even there at hour 60 850`s collapse all the way to the NS boarder with temps in the mid 30`s At 1.2 inches of liquid at 5 to 1 - KNYC could pull off a warning type event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wxbell has 9 inches for central park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A couple inches would be more than enough and it'll be a good omen for the rest of winter. Yup that's how 95-96 started out, with 3.5" 0n 11/29 and the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's hard for me to remember a more impactvile event than what this is progged to be. You have accumulating snows at KPHL, KEWR, KJFK & KBOS during the heart of the busiest travel day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To get 8:1 ratios you're going to want 850's to be colder. They hover around -0C to -2C on the coastal plain for most of the storm. Does someone have that table handy which shows what 850mb temps are best for dendrite growth? I believe -4C to -8C is optimal Models have been cooling the upper levels with this storm the past couple of runs. Barring a last minute jog westward, I don't think we're done cooling off either. I've seen many times the global models struggle with upper air temps. It'll be mighty interesting once we get into the short term models range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To get 8:1 ratios you're going to want 850's to be colder. They hover around -0C to -2C on the coastal plain for most of the storm. Does someone have that table handy which shows what 850mb temps are best for dendrite growth? I believe -4C to -8C is optimal. These are pretty cool actually : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wxbell has 9 inches for central park. 1.2" water at 6:1 is 7.2". That might even be generous. Those maps are based off of 10:1 and don't account for melting while the surface is still in the mid to upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It really doesn't mean anything beyond this week I dunno, the fact that this storm is occurring in the middle of the week might mean the weekend rule is on the fritz this season, which would naturally imply lower snowfall overall. Combine that with the fact that it's still November and you have some bad juju for the remainder of the season (until President's Day, which has its own good luck and can easily reverse an erstwhile curse). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.