IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The ridge axis out West is more amplified, the trough is sharper, subtle changes, but noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM is one of the eastern outliers i wouldnt put much stock into it right now IMO and Euro is the west outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's also more agressive with the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 and Euro is the west outlier Actually the UKMET is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 and Euro is the west outlier Having the models with the best verification scores as "western outliers" usually means that they're closer to the solution than an outlier.....though I'm hoping not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Trend on the GFS today was to have more interaction with the trailing vort and that continues with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Less seperation down south leading to more of a phased solution, surface low right on the GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro looks like the GFS to me through 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1008mb right over the southern Outerbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Per NE Met EURO a little SE of 0z position at hour 42/45 (close to GFS position) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hr 54 1004mb just to the east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hr 57 75-100 miles east of Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is taking a benchmark track. 850's are much colder for the coast on this run. This run isn't wrapped up. GFS FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow, confirmed a good amount E of prior runs...to the GFS track and temps (maybe a touch cooler even)...NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 60, double barreled lows, one about 75 miles east of ACY and the other just south of the benchmark, expansive precip over the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro is taking a benchmark track. 850's are much colder for the coast on this run. This run isn't wrapped up. GFS FTW? Let the run/pbp finish please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Very bad analysis in here...clearly east of 00z position and colder aloft so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let the run/pbp finish please He's right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Very bad analysis in here...clearly east of 00z position and colder aloft so far Lord Earthlight Cometh to the thread to give his words of wisdom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 63 near the benchmark, precip winding down. Problem for the coast is once again surface temps. Everything else looks to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sometimes I wonder what you people are looking at...the euro now takes a sub 1000mb low southeast of Long Island where yesterday it had a 992mb low into Islip Not sure how that qualifies as anything other than weaker and farther southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Very bad analysis in here...clearly east of 00z position and colder aloft so far Who said it wasn't East of 00z? Not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks wetter then the GFS. Hr 54 is very intense rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I NEVER put my eggs in a basket with backend snows, hasnt worked out very often since Xmas 02', the mother of backlash snows for me Your location is pretty awful for backend snows. They are far more commonplace to the N&W of NYC just based on storm structur climo/geography, etc. Furthermore, there is a distinction here. I'm not sure if the definitions are cut and dry, but i think of one category as describing what happens when the surface low passes to your west (or overhead), you go to rain then dryslot, and then snow comes back in on the back side. I agree, that phenomenon is rare, especially for your locale. But, another case is when a storm passes to your south and east but the winds don't back to the north until it passes your longitude. This can mean sleet or rain on the front end over to heavy snow on the back side of the low. That is actually fairly commonplace, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That run is pretty much a win for everyone. The less wrapped up solution benefited inland areas even with a further East track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How does the precip shield look vs GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well Dr. No managed to alleviate some of the worries from the Ukmet. I can't imagine too many more major shifts in the track going forward it's getting close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Borderline areas are going to like this run. I am not saying Jersey shore/LI... but areas immeditely by the NYC suburbs that are a little n/w will like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1"+ QPF for mostly all in this forum. Not a bad run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's a best case scenario Euro run with the current pattern we're in. Let's see what the Euro snow maps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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