Sn0waddict Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well for me that's a disaster. It is for 95% of this subfourm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I've always found the Ukie and Euro to be a heck of a combo with storms like this. Reminds me of he storm in Feb earlier this year. They remained rather steadfast and the GFS came back West within 48 hrs. Long way to go and obv what I want, but plenty of options in the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well for me that's a disaster. Can't you take one for the team*? *all six of us who live where that solution rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And sandy will hit new england, and im gonna get 1-3" from the snowicane Noreaster is back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 850mb low tracks right over the NJ coast on the UKMET, that would be a problem for the coast. Most November storms are 'elevation' storms for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can't you take one for the team*? *all six of us who live where that solution rocks You are too much. Should someone change the title of this thread to Wednesday into Wednesday night? I think most of us know the timing, but for those who are traveling and just checking in from time to time, it might be helpful to be a little more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Gorgeous. Let's hope the European takes its cue from the UK. A thing of beauty.. UK has been steady throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The strongest baroclinic forcing is on the boundary between the cold SST to the northwest and the warm mild SST to the southeast. That boundary is currently oriented from OBX to just inside the benchmark. I know that's not what most people in this region want to hear, but that's the simplified scientific explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The only possible advantage of the UK for the coast would be if this thing suddenly begins to go vertically stacked and slow a bit here in the next 24-36 hours...in that case a track that close could result in a hit of snow behind the low as the cold air wraps in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I guess everyone's giving up and it will just be a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I guess everyone's giving up and it will just be a cold rain? Snowgoose said it perfectly unless it goes vertically stacked and closes off coastal areas are rain and N&W of NYC see the seasons first substantial snowfall. 12Z EURO today if its still tucked in im writing this one off as no accumulation for me SW suffolk barring a last second miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I guess everyone's giving up and it will just be a cold rain? I'm not giving up...I'm expecting 6 inches plus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Snowgoose said it perfectly unless it goes vertically stacked and closes off coastal areas are rain and N&W of NYC see the seasons first substantial snowfall. 12Z EURO today if its still tucked in im writing this one off as no accumulation for me SW suffolk barring a last second miracle The coast has a chance with the GFS track, winds are N-NNE the entire event and although the model shows 40 degree temps dewpoints are 28-30, that could very well end up as snow, thats about the same temps it showed in the October 2011 and November 2012 events at the surface and this would likely have more dynamic precip rates...but if the Euro or UK verify with the 850 low overhead we would need to get the snow behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I guess everyone's giving up and it will just be a cold rain? It's November and you have no blocking to speak of. My best advice for coastal folks today is to set your expectations low and hope for the best. We're experiencing some windshield washing today, completely normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's November and you have no blocking to speak of. My best advice for coastal folks today is to set your expectations low and hope for the best. We're experiencing some windshield washing today, completely normal. No true cold air either. it's always a thread the needle when you have to rely on dynamic cooling and a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So I guess everyone's giving up and it will just be a cold rain? Not giving up.. Expecting warning criteria snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The coast has a chance with the GFS track, winds are N-NNE the entire event and although the model shows 40 degree temps dewpoints are 28-30, that could very well end up as snow, thats about the same temps it showed in the October 2011 and November 2012 events at the surface and this would likely have more dynamic precip rates...but if the Euro or UK verify with the 850 low overhead we would need to get the snow behind the system. I NEVER put my eggs in a basket with backend snows, hasnt worked out very often since Xmas 02', the mother of backlash snows for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And sandy will hit new england, and im gonna get 1-3" from the snowicane Lol Noreaster is always wrong. You should have seen him bust all of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 When does the EURO come out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think those who are looking at the upper level pattern and expecting this to come well west of the BM are missing the storm that is moving into the Pac NW and is unable to amplify the downstream upper level ridge due to an upper level high to its north. This acts to force the entire long wave patttern quickly from West to East, which is why our storm is being shunted east, in a long wave trough/ridge and short wave setup that would normally result in a track much further west and perhaps even well inland. The flow over the western CONUS is actually quite progressive, and this is helping to keep the developing storm closer to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 When does the EURO come out again? 20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z UKMET shows ~5MM of snow for KNYC on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not giving up...I'm expecting 6 inches plus... I am expecting 8-12 inches. Waiting for the king ally baba euro to run soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Updated OPC 500mb our mets..... can we have a bit of insight on this??? leaning west is my call http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro in about 5 minutes, hopefully we can keep non related posts to a minimum while the PBP is occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's November and you have no blocking to speak of. My best advice for coastal folks today is to set your expectations low and hope for the best. We're experiencing some windshield washing today, completely normal. That is the best advice for any storm :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro is already more amplified through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM Ensemble Mean GGEM is one of the eastern outliers i wouldnt put much stock into it right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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