WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Actually, the NWS snow map for our parts looks really good. Though I think the 10-14/6-8/8-10 areas will probably just be one combined 6-10 area (as the areas that stay mostly snow should accumulate just as easily as the next and it's possible that those NW but not extremely far NW will get the heaviest rates). Towards NYC/NE NJ, I think 1-3 is a good call (probably closer to the 1 for NYC).....quickly ramping up to 3-6 as you gain a bit of elevation (400-600ft). Overall, I like the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not even close to this storm at all This storm will be stronger but the track is quite similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 By the time thurs comes most of you will be too low on your november calls per the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z RGEM just for entertainment value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nov: 3.4" Dec: 12.7" Jan: 22.5" Feb: 15.6" Mar: 6.6" Apr: 0.0" May: 0.0" Total 60.8" I'm going with a top 5 winter of all time in terms of snowfall at KNYC. I feel however that a majority of the snow will fall in 3-4 KU events. By the time thurs comes most of you will be too low on your november calls per the other thread. My call on November might end up being close to spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I haven't checked it, but did the RGEM a come further west? It seems so from the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM looks nice for the area. Benchmark hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I haven't checked it, but did the RGEM a come further west? It seems so from the image Too far out of range to compare, but it looks more amped up than 06z down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 While the SREF Plumes show 7" at LAG, the COBB Method shows no snow accumalation at all for the GFS or the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM looks nice for the area. Benchmark hit. I would toss the GGEM, it has all of the heavier precip confined near the low track, even misses Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My call on November might end up being close to spot on. Hah yeah you might actually nail it. I went 5.5" for this month. I highly doubt they'll actually accumulate that much at the reporting station...but 2-3 or so is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 While the SREF Plumes show 7" at LAG, the COBB Method shows no snow accumalation at all for the GFS or the NAM. The SREF plumes are awful, hence why nobody has answered your question yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would toss the GGEM, it has all of the heavier precip confined near the low track, even misses Cape Cod. It has been consistent on a benchmark or just east of it track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At this point the only consistent model has been the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For kicks and giggles....I present the 12Z CRAS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z RGEM just for entertainment value I think RGEM out-performed all the models last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GGEM ends up as a few hours of moderate snow N&W of the city, but you can here how the focus shfts more towards the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For kicks and giggles....I present the 12Z CRAS: That's exactly where the CRAS usually ends up with coastal systems, always well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It has been consistent on a benchmark or just east of it track. The GGEM isn't good for you. It has hours of light to moderate to precip with the best dynamics too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We would all be in trouble if the cras was a bm track. So its nice to see it in its own benchmark or nortj central pa lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That dry slot East of NJ doesn't make any sense. That dry slot should have been to the south and east of the surface low. That's why to me it's an easy decision to toss. It almost has the look of an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The ensemble cluster does give a chance for shift W . There are a lot of amped up members to the W of the mean . Most are E of OBX but once to AC the difference in the GFS and this would make a difference for the NW guys . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think RGEM out-performed all the models last winter. The RGEM is a great model inside of 24 hours. The 24-48 hour period suffers from the same issues as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That dry slot East of NJ doesn't make any sense. That dry slot should have been to the south and east of the surface low. That's why to me it's an easy decision to toss. It almost has the look of an inverted trough. Why not? Seems like subsidence from the strong forcing offshore. The precip over the interior is likely borne of upper-air ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm really not sure why folks are so quick to toss the RGEM (other than that its solution is suboptimal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This storm will be a great test for the models and which one performed the best overall. Could be esential for future storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 anxiously awaiting the Euro.. I would love it to move a bit east but not sure it will. I think the Euro will depict what we will likely see and if it holds or moves more west - I see the NAM and GFS moving west with each new model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think RGEM out-performed all the models last winter.I love rgem withing 48 hours... Does very well with banding too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The ensemble cluster does give a chance for shift W . There are a lot of amped up members to the W of the mean . Most are E of OBX but once to AC the difference in the GFS and this would make a difference for the NW guys . Looks like only 8/51 members are East of the OP. The ensemble mean ends up only about 75-100 miles East of ACY which is about 50-75 miles West of the 12z GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 As snowgoose always says , the rgem ia pretty good with precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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