Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday


Mitchel Volk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Why because it shows less snow for your area? What is your meteorological reasoning?

Uhhh no? Because it's the first model run to show the cut off in a string of runs from the GFS that have been inconsistent lol... If u read my previous posts which apparently you haven't, I've mentioned I assumed a eastern track, but as for a sharp NW cut off I doubt... Now would like to explain you're " meteorological " view as to why you think it may verify?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep. Should be a really interesting storm to track.

 

The BL starts out near 40 east of city and never drops enough since the best VV's remain out over the ocean.

Maybe a few hours of mid 30's snow for a little on the grass with this track toward the end of the storm.

But even for that we would need a Euro shift east since the 850's stayed above freezing right

through the storm on 0Z. Even a Euro GFS compromise wouldn't do much for LI.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is a bit west and def warmer. The precip shield would be a killer for NW areas. Difference between 5 and 10 inches!

Actually, looking at it again though, the precip shield hasn't changed as much as we might think anyway :

Compare 6z :

5016fe4313e5575a745111e7ce8e47c8.jpg

To 12z :

post-1210-14168447069.jpg

Silly analyzing it all anyway at this point, but just thought I'd mention

post-1210-141684469415.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the 06z GFS valid 18z Wednesday, you can see the lead shortwave is over NC and the trailing shortwave is over the bootheel of Missouri.

 

gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Taking a look at the 12z GFS also valid 18z Wednesday you can see the differences. You now have a piece over the DC area, one piece over SC and the trailing energy is further back over central MO. Those are some major changes regarding time and placement of important features.

 

gfs_namer_054_500_vort_ht.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, looking at it again though, the precip shield hasn't changed as much as we might think anyway :

Compare 6z :

5016fe4313e5575a745111e7ce8e47c8.jpg

To 12z :

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416844706.717733.jpg

Silly analyzing it all anyway at this point, but just thought I'd mention

Yeah. Hard to see on Phone but good visual.

The early track made it look like there would be more expansive field of heavier precip N and W, but it scooted east again like 6z and wound up near the same point at our latitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The BL starts out near 40 east of city and never drops enough since the best VV's remain out over the ocean.

Maybe a few hours of mid 30's snow for a little on the grass with this track toward the end of the storm.

But even for that we would need a Euro shift east since the 850's stayed above freezing right

through the storm on 0Z. Even a Euro GFS compromise wouldn't do much for LI.

 Agree. City west might be in better shape then Islip east. Still too close for comfort.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at KNYC at hour 54 850`s are minus 2 at hour 60 850`s are minus 4. BL is 34 . It`s going to snow in NYC wed and EWR which was my orig thougths . 

 

If the park walks away with 3 inches out of this I don`t see how anyone could be shocked . Snowfall rates will cool the column and the surface will drop fast enough to keep it snow for a while  . NYC winds are NNE  .With a crap BL you are prob looking at 5 to 1 ratios . 

 

I don`t see an all rain or just slush event in NYC and the Bronx .

 

The Euro UKMET and GFS are on board  . Think once  east of JFK  its a painful miss .  Once to central Nassau there`s likely to be a E wind  for a while .

 

Think the Hudson could be a real dividing line. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at KNYC at hour 54 850`s are minus 2 at hour 60 850`s are minus 4. BL is 33 - to 34 . It`s going to snow in NYC wed .

 

If the park walks away with 3 inches out of this I don`t see how anyone could be shocked . Snowfall rates will cool the column and the surface will drop fast enough to keep it snow for a while  . NYC winds are NNE  .With a crap BL you are prob looking at 5 to 1 ratios . 

 

I don`t see an all rain or just slush event in NYC and the Bronx .

 

The Euro UKMET and GFS are on board  . Think once  east of JFK  its a painful miss .  Once to central Nassau there`s likely to be a E wind  for a while .

I'm still not 100% convinced we get accumulations in the city or nearby burbs but we'll see. N&W are fine and east is rain but I think its a tough forecast for NE/Central NJ & NYC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GkRVa4W.jpg

My thinking exactly. Going with elevation I might go over an inch places like the north shore hills, palisades and Staten Island.

Unfortunately for us coastal folks it's allot of mid to high 30s rain. Even when snow is falling and it will fall it's still in the mid 30s and not sticking.

I was down in DC for a storm just like this at this time of year a few years ago. In the city itself nada. Just north west and a couple hundred feet up and there was a nice snow storm.

I think we are just a month to early here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the reasons why the GFS is trending dryer N & W is because as the model begins catching on to a more organized, stronger system, the precip fields are becoming more and more wrapped up. The best deformation banding on the GFS just clips the twin forks on the way to Cape Cod. You're going to need a track inside of the benchmark to ensure that you get into better dynamics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj.

 

 

Yup, this is a very dangerous forecast scenario near the coast, the boundary layer is borderline but the wind direction is good, any sort of heavy precipitation rates and its going to be snow...I'm glad I'll be off and not forecasting this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This all reminds me of the early Nov 2012 storm where it was forecast to be mostly rain or a rain/snow mix despite a perfect track. Instead several inches of snow fell including over a foot in parts of south central nj.

I was just thinking about that storm. No one mentioned snow with that storm for NYC. I ended up with a few inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...