Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The RGEM at 48 hours is equal to the NAM at 84 hours. I dunno. I wouldn't bank on the RGEM, but it's not terrible, and Will in the SNE forum just said it's one of the only mesoscale models worth looking at in the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 45 just south of Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The big differences this run are the interaction with the trailing energy, unlike the NAM. Hour 48 just south of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Prob going to be warmer, SLP looks a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 if this setup had a closed low the system would run inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4 mb stronger at 48 at 12z than 54 hr at 0z closer to OBX than at 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 51 kissing OBX or just a tick east. Closed off at H5 over Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Less QPF for sure for most western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Less QPF for sure for most western areas.Yeah. Agree. Looks off based on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Comes off just E of OBX at 54 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The track is not much different at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Benchmark track on the GFS. Euro FTW. uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro FTW.The gfs track is not much different from prior runs.Expect euro to tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Benchmark track on the GFS. uh? I'm on mobile but looks West of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 nice first call by the nws looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BM . 850s look ok for KNYC- cant see the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems rather dry on the NW side this run. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 60 it's just southeast of the benchmark. The closed H5 low over the plains opened back up so instead of tugging the low closer to the coast, it was allowed to escape further east. That track would be East of the best baroclinic forcing and based on changes at H5 regarding the trailing energy and more amped up trend, I feel confident in saying this run will end up verifying too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm on mobile but looks West of 6z.Definitely looks warmer to me as well and a bit west (on mobile as well though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BM . 850s look ok for KNYC- cant see the surface It's close for the coast. Eastern LI is a lot warmer than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BM . 850s look ok for KNYC- cant see the surface NYC right on the line with mostly rain east. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs060hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 About the same...maybe a tick stronger and north/west...still verbatim good for all save parts of LI. Near benchmark track...although the precip on NW extreme decreased some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Definitely looks warmer to me as well and a bit west (on mobile as well though)It is a bit west and def warmer. The precip shield would be a killer for NW areas. Difference between 5 and 10 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This seems like one of those classic transition GFS runs where it starts to cave towards a more amped up solution but then something happens to throw things out of whack at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems rather dry on the NW side this run. mehon valentine's day the gfs showed snizzle where it was snowing 3+" per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NYC right on the line with mostly rain east. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs060hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Yep. Should be a really interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The progressiveness of the pattern is what might save a lot of us. As soon as the trough really gets organized it is being pushed east. I'd like to see the Euro shift east though before saying the city and coast get more than white rain or slop that changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This seems like one of those classic transition GFS runs where it starts to cave towards a more amped up solution but then something happens to throw things out of whack at the last minute. Or maybe it's not. GEFS were all on the benchmark at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.