Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z Nam is good for all of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Worst case scenario for the main travel hubs. Snow moves in Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Only precip problems this run are southern coastal NJ and the east end of LI. May also be ocean facing areas that see the most possible problems, sometimes cold settles down north shore, but anything can happen at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam looks like it is going to be near or on the benchmark, Out to 54 hours. It's well southeast of the benchmark still and likely too far East considering that the concensus is closer to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At 15z on Wednesday the NAM says it's 40 degress at the surface in KNYC, temps then drop off after that to the low 30's but things are starting to wind down. The rest of the layers are below freezing so if you can get the stronger dynamics close enough to the coast, those surface temps won't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's well southeast of the benchmark still and likely too far East considering that the concensus is closer to the benchmark. That clipper on the backside seems to be kicking it out a little (and hampering its strength) to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z Nam is good for all of the area boundary layer is way too warm for all of the coastal plain of our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 boundary layer is way too warm for all of the coastal plain of our area 33-35 degrees . Worry about the track and intensity first. We have seen many times that intense rates can cool the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its cold aloft on the NAM. Lift, are the winds out of the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Heart of the storm would be from roughly 12z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Light stuff lingers into Wednesday night. 0.50"+ for most of NNJ, 0.75"+ for the immediate NW burbs, 1"+ from the Nassau County Line East. Verbatim it's a past job for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 boundary layer is way too warm for all of the coastal plain of our area I wouldn't be worrying too much about the surface temps, 925, 850 and 700mb are below freezing, so you have room for dynamic cooling if you can get the intensity up. That's why the NAM goes from 40 at KNYC to 34 in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Even the NAM being too far east at these ranges keeps the best UVVELs east so will be hard to dynamically cool enough. And a further west track like the Euro would bring in too much warming above the surface with the LLJ for it to work. It's cold aloft, 850's cool to almost -4C by 15z Wednesday in the city and it's colder than that on the north shore of Nassau County and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Although the NAM is mostly snow for me its hard to put any faith in it until the GFS or EURO shows something atleast similar to it. Onto the 12z GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Even the NAM being too far east at these ranges keeps the best UVVELs east so will be hard to dynamically cool enough. And a further west track like the Euro would bring in too much warming above the surface with the LLJ for it to work. Correct way to much focus on the 850mb line even a east track like the NAM is 90 percent rain in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Although the NAM is mostly snow for me its hard to put any faith in it until the GFS or EURO shows something atleast similar to it. Onto the 12z GFS run! You mean the Euro. GFS is nothing like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Disclaimer, for entertainment purposes only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking at the NAM early (first 36 hours) where it is semi useful, it's jacked up. Someone downstream is going to get dumped on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Totals through 60 hours, at this point it's pretty much over for us. As a reminder, this is for entertainment purposes only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hi-Res NAM has the precip shield further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, but the NAM is too far east so the lower levels are going to be warmer with a euro ensemble track keeping the 850 above freezing at the coast. Even if the NAM track verified, the precip would be less since it's always too juiced so JFK would be 36 with light to moderate snow and mostly stick on grass an pavement wet. Sometimes at 48 hours out the models over correct East, and the NAM is handling that trailing shortwave more as a kicker, which could end up being a major error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let's give credit to the met, Michel Volk who first highlighted this potential event several days out. Attaboy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I continue to strongly believe this is a non-event for the city / coast with inland zones possibly receiving a significant thump of snow. The western mid level ridge axis will likely be located near the CA coast which is quite a bit further west than ideal position, and argues for enhanced resistance along the SE US Coast. Furthermore, as I noted yesterday, the downstream pattern is poor and unsupportive of a benchmark or further east track. It's not that we haven't ever snowed on the coast in this regime during the winter, but the preset pattern for late November is one which makes it extremely difficult to thread the needle for significant snowfall. I've yet to read reasoning concerning a physical mechanism that would prevent a westward trend and a coastal hugger type solution. Neither the downstream nor the upstream pattern would prevent said occurrence. At this juncture, I wouldn't fall into the trap of the snowy NAM given the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We want separation btwn the waves. We want the lead wave to be more amped, otherwise this baby is coming way to close to the coast. If the first s/w js more amped, the UVs will be better, mid-levels will over come surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I continue to strongly believe this is a non-event for the city / coast with inland zones possibly receiving a significant thump of snow. The western mid level ridge axis will likely be located near the CA coast which is quite a bit further west than ideal position, and argues for enhanced resistance along the SE US Coast. Furthermore, as I noted yesterday, the downstream pattern is poor and unsupportive of a benchmark or further east track. It's not that we haven't ever snowed on the coast in this regime during the winter, but the preset pattern for late November is one which makes it extremely difficult to thread the needle for significant snowfall. I've yet to read reasoning concerning a physical mechanism that would prevent a westward trend and a coastal hugger type solution. Neither the downstream nor the upstream pattern would prevent said occurrence. At this juncture, I wouldn't fall into the trap of the snowy NAM given the lead time. Agreed this is a W of NYC event. I dont think this storm will end up E of BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM similar to NAM with SLP placement at 48...off of NC coast...looks like a nice hit if extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is slower with the lead shortwave through 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM similar to NAM with SLP placement at 48...off of NC coast...looks like a nice hit if extrapolated The RGEM at 48 hours is equal to the NAM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 More interaction from the trailing wave, more amped up, early on but looks like it will come West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hour 42, tucked right into the SC Coast, it's a lot more amped up than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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