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Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

Mitchel Volk

By Mitchel Volk,
in New York City Metro

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS NW SOUTH CAROLINA/WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
SNOW AND COASTAL RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 3...THE
PEAK OF THE PRE HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND THEN END ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
ON THANKSGIVING MORNING.

HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS MERELY ONE OF MANY THAT TYPIFY
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. TO
GENERATE THE FORECAST...THERE SEEMED TO BE MORE SIMILARITIES
BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/THE 00Z GFS/THE 21Z SREF THAN
WITH THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND UKMET. THAT SAID...THE ECMWF/UKMET
CANNOT BE IGNORED AND PRESENTS SOME INTERESTING ALTERNATIVES.
THESE RUNS HAVE A CYCLONE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH A 1000/500 THICKNESS PATTERN THAT FIRST APPEARS TOO
HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BIG CITIES. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
LOW FOR THOSE THICKNESSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH. THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP IN
THAT RELATIVELY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK WITHIN A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS SUGGESTS A FLOW
OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW RATHER THAN A MORE EASTERLY
SURFACE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...THE KEY TO QPF TYPE WILL NOT LIE AT
THE SURFACE BUT MORE LIKELY ALOFT AND THAT SCENARIO REFLECTS THE
INTERACTION OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH THE LIFTING TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SUBTLE
CHANGES IN THAT INTERACTION COULD SPELL THE DIFFERENCES ALREADY
DISCUSSED.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT DAYS
1-3.

KOCIN

 
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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

We are still in thread the needle time of year along the coast. If it weren't for the post Sandy storm I doubt many would even consider 6 plus in coastal areas this early.

So much has to go right to get snow to accumulate outside of the usual elevated interior areas.

NYC and even li should see snow it's getting it to accumulate that's the issue. Weaker east just will not have the dynamics to get it done. West and stronger and it wraps in warm air at 850 and we rain in the high 30s city east.

Given the above I'll take any accumulation here as a bonus and thinking an inch or two of slush on cars and grass.

Also, anyone see the futurecast bill Evans is showing? What a joke, when it's that off why bother showing it!

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Who allowed the maniac (DT) to reenter the fold?

I must say, his posts brought me back.

That was a riot to read through. Then it got annoying. Typical it's the Euro and only the Euro BS. Made for a good morning chuckle.

Thinking we go GFS/Euro blend based on a bit of an East correction and we roll!

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Shades

Shades

Posted
Posted

I have to say that having read through this beyond cluttered thread that I feel it will be an exhausting winter.  The bickering was insane over night.  I have been a reader of this and Eastern for years and can't recall ever reading that much horsesh^t.  In all seriousness it may be time to find another site.  Why can't you all fight via IM or something and keep out of the thread.  I was looking forward to enjoying a cup of joe and reading about the over night runs and in all seriousness like 40% of the posts were he said/she said.  Grow up people.  Enough said, enjoy the science/art of forecasting and let those of us who want to gain insight do so.  Thanks.

Agreed. And unlike this event or any other even which includes snow, there is absolutely no reason why this forum/thread should turn into a bunch of frankfurters pasting each other with drippy mustard. That's the REAL sloppy mess which culminates. I come here to read information of substance, model analysis with sound meteorological reasoning. Instead, while trying to get to the meat of the discussion, have to contend with a soggy bun that is impossible to keep together. KEEP IT TOGETHER FOLKS. FOR METEOROLOGY'S SAKE. You can still enjoy being a weenie without it, I promise. Give credence to what you post, remember this is a public forum, we are shaping and influencing the minds of many when understanding this science. No wonder there is so much bad repertoire in social media for those who share this information irresponsibly. Don't breed that reputation here on AMWX. If you want to get noticed, or be heard, share something worth noticing or hearing. Otherwise, start a hotdog stand or something and try to sell your sodden and muculent weenies out there.

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Chaser25973

Chaser25973

Posted
Posted

Personally, I wish the NYC Metro area saw at least a foot of snow or more. Just looking at the water temps, I just don't see how areas in Southern SI, Nassau and Suffolk are going to get a lot of snow out of this. Maybe a few slushy inches, but I think there's going to be more of a wintery mix. Just going by my gut. I also think the city is going to have a problem... I hope I'm wrong, but just my gut feeling is that it's too early in the season to depend on a huge snowmaker for anybody but the interior, N&W of I-95. I'd be shocked if CPK got more than 6" out of it and that's just being generous. I think the temps are going to be too warm.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

Personally, I wish the NYC Metro area saw at least a foot of snow or more. Just looking at the water temps, I just don't see how areas in Southern SI, Nassau and Suffolk are going to get a lot of snow out of this. Maybe a few slushy inches, but I think there's going to be more of a wintery mix. Just going by my gut. I also think the city is going to have a problem... I hope I'm wrong, but just my gut feeling is that it's too early in the season to depend on a huge snowmaker for anybody but the interior, N&W of I-95. I'd be shocked if CPK got more than 6" out of it and that's just being generous. I think the temps are going to be too warm.

Only way Nassua county east can get snow from this is if the EURO/GFS are a benchmark track. Just east MTK point will still flood the coastal areas with warm air and inevitably rain. Right now we get nothing and inland areas get a nice pre-winter paste bomb. who knows maybe since the trend was east overnight we may get a BM track, only time will tell, IMO this isnt our storm at all

We'll have plenty more chances hopefully later in december for more snowstorms along the coast. Who knows maybe some blocking?

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The Euro finally agrees with the ensemble so track idea just east of MTP has more support now.

But that is still too warm Long Island. Too bad this is going too fast to close off like the

early November 2012 storm.

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-web248-20141124100013-20315-0370.gif

Good post. My opinion was the park and EWR would get 3

let's see if we can cool that column just west of JFK

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NYStorm

NYStorm

Posted
Posted

Who allowed the maniac (DT) to reenter the fold?

I must say, his posts brought me back.

Meanwhile, there have been several posts here which have basically agreed with him, and no one has given them any SH*T for it. DT is still a met and usually offers some valid considerations. What is with people here that they just cannot let people post, ignore it if they don't like it or post a bonafide/factual/objective position that disagrees and why ... or just post their own assessment?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The Euro has to slide east another 50-75 miles for anyone east of the city to have a chance at more than some slop on the ground that gets washed away. Hopefully we see it continue the bump east it started last night-we really need for it to be closer to the benchmark. The ocean is still way too warm for an ENE wind to work out. 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

Yeah, that 850 mb low is still a too close to the coast on the 0z Euro so 850's on LI goes east off the warm ocean

while areas west of NYC have a cold NE flow.

 

attachicon.gifTT_UU_VV_072_0850.gif

The winds have to be mostly offshore for the coast especially Long Island to see any measurable snowfall.I have seen this many times in November and early December..an easterly component kills..if it was say 3 weeks later yea there's a shot..We should all be aware of that and not get our hopes up to high especially on the Island and maybe the city

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile, there have been several posts here which have basically agreed with him, and no one has given them any SH*T for it. DT is still a met and usually offers some valid considerations. What is with people here that they just cannot let people post, ignore it if they don't like it or post a bonafide/factual/objective position that disagrees and why ... or just post their own assessment?

It's going to be a long winter here if this is the way people are going to behave with all the bickering and arguing. I don't like to call for people to be suspended but I guess that's what it takes with some people.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile, there have been several posts here which have basically agreed with him, and no one has given them any SH*T for it. DT is still a met and usually offers some valid considerations. What is with people here that they just cannot let people post, ignore it if they don't like it or post a bonafide/factual/objective position that disagrees and why ... or just post their own assessment?

DT is a good forecaster and a value to any board..it great to have all points of view..i think is forecast is very reasonable, personally

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

It's going to be a long winter here if this is the way people are going to behave with all the bickering and arguing. I don't like to call for people to be suspended but I guess that's what it takes with some people.

DT is just flat out unprofessional and is condescending in his tone. How he acted the last couple pages is not acting as some who is a professional meterologist. that said this bickering isnt helping anyone and i think a few people are on the ban hammer hit list already

Chris i agree, unless it goes to the BM or east we on LI are cooked, last night trends were good but we need a continuation of the today to hopefully get coastal areas back in the game, as slim as the chances are :popcorn:

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

DT is just flat out unprofessional and is condescending in his tone. How he acted the last couple pages is not acting as some who is a professional meterologist. that said this bickering isnt helping anyone and i think a few people are on the ban hammer hit list already

Chris i agree, unless it goes to the BM or east we on LI are cooked, last night trends were good but we need a continuation of the today to hopefully get coastal areas back in the game, as slim as the chances are :popcorn:

If DT was forecasting a blizzard for the coast we would all love him..and many here know that's true

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