Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 93 hrs looks sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Big shift west on the GFS. Nothing like the Euro but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I for one am elated to hear that we have the NAM extrapolated past hour-84 on our side. Too bad it doesn't go way past that.....we could make reliable forecasts a month in advance. BUT.....the GFS does leave the door open for potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 With the OP SE bias , Love this look 4 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Too bad it doesn't go way past that.....we could make reliable forecasts a month in advance. BUT.....the GFS does leave the door open for potential Think he meant that as a joke since that model is a real clunker outside of nowcasting pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 SE. Where we want it. Think Para will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Think he meant that as a joke since that model is a real clunker outside of nowcasting pretty much Indeed. I just continued that joke past hour 84;)New GFS run looks much improved and as others have said, is where we'd want it at this point. +1 point if we're hoping for snow. Many more points needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 PGFS doesn't but it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just some minor changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Temps are marginal but could be just enough if the storm is further west and it really bombs out like that. Very thread the needle event but now in the 4 Day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know it's a term used often ..but agreed a very thread the needle type event ; but by tomm oz suite should be more clarity but either way nice to have something to track early in the season ( keeping expectations very low )... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Also awful timing if this holds true as many would be traveling around this time right before Thanksgiving. Long ways to go though but very interesting I must admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 "Very thread the needle"? How does that even make sense. We know this isnt the best setup on the atlantic side for sure. However if we get proper cooperation from the pacific it can and has covered up alot of the atlantic's shortcomings. Not the first or last time something is made from a crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Sounds like a beauty for the interior.. What are the surface temps for the coast & for areas > 50 miles from the coast? I'm dyin to know what you folks are classifying as "interior" for this threat? I95 east or west? Thx so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm dyin to know what you folks are classifying as "interior" for this threat? I95 east or west? Thx so much N/W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I like how that looks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro looks good, hour 99 low near Carolina Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 102 near OBX, precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 105 looks great, stronger than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like a heavy mixed bag or wet snow at 108. Another great win for interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Tracks right over the CAPE, well over an inch liquid. The surface is a bit warm but that's susceptibile to error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Stronger and closer to the coast compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Big time interior paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 i think the city would get 6+ before any mixing if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weenie maps show 6-12" for the interior and 2-4" north of 80 in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 i think the city would get 6+ before any mixing if the euro is right Yes. NW folks bias at play in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weenie maps show 6-12" for the interior and 2-4" north of 80 in NJ. And 2"+ for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weenie maps show 6-12" for the interior and 2-4" north of 80 in NJ. And 2"+ for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 i think the city would get 6+ before any mixing if the euro is rightAgreed, 925 and 850 are below freezing for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It`s a widespread wet snow for almost all at 108 KNYC 850`s are Minus 3 - BL 34 max NWNJ ,Minus 4-5 BL 33- 34 Very uniform from KNYC west Its a paste job almost everywhere . Very little thermal differences 17 MB DROP IN 12 HOURS Winds are NE through 108 N at 114 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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