delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Perhaps a met or more knowledgeable member can explain the reasoning for the minor shift east? Not much talk about the 0z euro in this thread. Just wondering. Enjoying the insight and commentary, (for the most part). DT doesn't think the 0z Euro is very different and he says it backs up his first guess.... which for NYC means mostly rain... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dt is a warminsta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dt is a warminsta I don't know about that he's forecasted big snows for i95 many times before and been right quite a bit... He just doesn't change his line of thinking with a slight change in one model even the Euro apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't know about that he's forecasted big snows for i95 many times before and been right quite a bit... He just doesn't change his line of thinking with a slight change in one model even the Euro apparently... im just trying to rationalize why this could still be a big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dude that is BULL**** .. take off the snow googles The euro is 75 miles east of its 12z. Islip vs just east of Montauk now at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dude IF the 850 temps are above zero ITS not snow. im just trying to rationalize why this could still be a big snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 THE EURO IS SNOW to RAIN for NYC and BOSTON I don't know about that he's forecasted big snows for i95 many times before and been right quite a bit... He just doesn't change his line of thinking with a slight change in one model even the Euro apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM still on the east side of things. EURO definitely jumped east from 12z. CMC and GFS look fantastic for snow. How could anyone be forecasting all rain for the big cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I am beginning to think the snow maps ecmwf over at WXBELL are not very good. Last winter alot folks got burned by looking at their snow maps . I wonder of it sis a marketing ploy.for example even though 850 temps on the 0z monday ecmwf go above 0 at NYC PVD and BOS the Euro snow maps over at wxbell has BOST getting 12 to 14" of snow and NYC PHILLY BWI DCA seeing 6" . Given how the 0C 850 isotherm goes NORTH of NYC and BOS I dont see how wxbell snow maps make any sense. yet the 0Z EURO SNOW MAP.... FROM EUROWX.com admittedly at 0.5 resolution... has MUCH LESS SNOW .... 1" for BOS NYC PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Upton just pulled the trigger for the interior.. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTOTHANKSGIVING MORNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-241700-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ANDNORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULDCHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE WELL INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAYTRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Winter storm watch for most of North jersey....game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM still on the east side of things. EURO definitely jumped east from 12z. CMC and GFS look fantastic for snow. How could anyone be forecasting all rain for the big cities? Well that Euro map posted above shows mostly rain for the cities... so I guess it didn't really shift east that much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 because you are a weenie. I Just showed actual DATA from the 0z EURO that clearly does NOT support ALL SNOW for NYC and you are saying that to you it " loosk east ' so what the model is actually showing is meaningless.really? good Luck with that . and just to be clear here in central VA the GFS POUNDS me with snow .I would LOVE the GFS to be correct. NAM still on the east side of things. EURO definitely jumped east from 12z. CMC and GFS look fantastic for snow. How could anyone be forecasting all rain for the big cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WSW watches also up for BGM & ALB. Looks like most offices are siding with the western solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 YUPPERS inland good Upton just pulled the trigger for the interior.. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTOTHANKSGIVING MORNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-241700-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ANDNORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULDCHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE WELL INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAYTRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dude IF the 850 temps are above zero ITS not snow. I know you're discounting them... but the GFS and the NAM both show the 850 line well to the south and east of the Euro... do the american models really suck that bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CORRECT now maybe I will be 1000000% wrongmaybe the 0z euro is 1000% wrongBut I am NOT making this up the 0z euro does show alot of rain for NYC PVD BOS doesnt mean I will be right but I aint a waminsta Well that Euro map posted above shows mostly rain for the cities... so I guess it didn't really shift east that much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WSW watches also up for BGM & ALB. Looks like most offices are siding with the western solutions There are no far 'western' solutions remaining..clustering around a near benchmark low location, but system looks robust enough to throw plenty of precipitation for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There are no far 'western' solutions remaining..clustering around a near benchmark low location, but system looks robust enough to throw plenty of precipitation for all... Both the UK & Euro at our latitude are without a doubt inside the benchmark. Its also not a coincidence that both also give the coast alot of precip in the form of liquid instead of frozen like the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 because you are a weenie. I Just showed actual DATA from the 0z EURO that clearly does NOT support ALL SNOW for NYC and you are saying that to you it " loosk east ' so what the model is actually showing is meaningless. really? good Luck with that . and just to be clear here in central VA the GFS POUNDS me with snow . I would LOVE the GFS to be correct. You are so lost. What are you talking about? When did i say the euro supported all snow for the big cities? It jumped east from 12z and every model has atleast a light to moderate snow event for NYC and NJ. Period. Good luck with that horrible forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DUDE you did the exact same thing to me...You out right LIED what i was / am forecasting. You said "NAM still on the east side of things. EURO definitely jumped east from 12z. CMC and GFS look fantastic for snow. How could anyone be forecasting all rain for the big cities? " yet the post I made above that said SNOW TO RAIN for NYC... so I did NOT and have not forecasted all rain. If you want to be treated with respect stop distorting thigs You are so lost. What are you talking about? When did i say the euro supported all snow for the big cities? It jumped east from 12z and every model has atleast a light to moderate snow event for NYC and NJ. Period. Good luck with that horrible forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DUDE you did the exact same thing to me...You out right LIED what i was / am forecasting. You said "NAM still on the east side of things. EURO definitely jumped east from 12z. CMC and GFS look fantastic for snow. How could anyone be forecasting all rain for the big cities? " yet the post I made above that said SNOW TO RAIN for NYC... so I did NOT and have not forecasted all rain. If you want to be treated with respect stop distorting thigs Lmao. Someone posted that you were forecasting mostly rain for NYC after the 00zs. But most of the models tonight give nyc a moderate event and even the euro came in less amplified with a further east solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Plenty of model runs to go ; I'm curious by Tue 12z suite where we stand until then I'm skeptical of all .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lmao. Someone posted that you were forecasting mostly rain for NYC after the 00zs. But most of the models tonight give nyc a moderate event and even the euro came in less amplified with a further east solution. If the euro is to be believed... that low is going to need to be a good 75-100 miles more east for a good snow in NYC and PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sheesh. Having read through all of that garbage, back to the models. The 6z GFS looks very similar to 0z and out to 60 is ever so slightly NW of it's earlier run. Splitting hairs though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At 66 it's actually a bit east now. Kind of scoots from 60-66. Looks like a nice hit even for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At 66 it's actually a bit east now. Kind of scoots from 60-66. Looks like a nice hit even for NYC. NYC would definitely stay all snow on this track. Low looks to be about 50 miles east of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NYC would definitely stay all snow on this track. Low looks to be about 50 miles east of 0z. Yeah. I was doing frame by frame comparisons and it's more the way it scoots. Looking closer, if you look at hour 60, there's a feature in the midwest that may act a bit like a kicker and kind of makes it scoot more NE than it did at 0z. I think bluewave was discussing this feature. I'll be watching on future runs. I'm reading the GFS Para came around too, but i don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Crazy to see this for Thanksgiving. Prob of 12+" from HPC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So it's a knockdown/dragout fight between the US models and the Euro/UKMET... I guess we'll see soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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