SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The surface is at least +4C at that frame. No way it's snow. The models cannot account for evaporative cooling in these marginal events, its roughly 35/28 when the precip commences on the GFS soundings at FRG/JFK/ISP and winds are NE..from then on no layer other than the surface is above freezing, thats a snow event if it unfolded exaclty as the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dude, thats what has fallen prior to 72. Pull up the gfs, nam euro and cmc and tell me how much precip falls after 72. No model has more than 0.2. Stop arguing about this you are clearly not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its falling snow as per 850 temps but surface temps look to be in the mid 30's. QPF over .75". I can only wishcast for accumulating snow on grassy areas and car tops during the overnight period.. NYC will get down to 32/32 if they get into heavy snow bands with the 850mb temps shown on the 0z GFS. Models often show snow at 33-35F when in reality the whole column will go isothermal at 0C with the dynamics from the developing low and the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The models cannot account for evaporative cooling in these marginal events, its roughly 35/28 when the precip commences on the GFS soundings at FRG/JFK/ISP and winds are NE..from then on no layer other than the surface is above freezing, thats a snow event if it unfolded exaclty as the GFS shows. That's the GFS, we're discussing the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Shut off at 72? Very wrong. This is not a 6 hour totals panel. That's previous 12 hours precip. It's over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT MAP ummm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT MAP ummm.. So the euro essentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 dude, thats what has fallen prior to 72. Pull up the gfs, nam euro and cmc and tell me how much precip falls after 72. No model has more than 0.2. Stop arguing about this you are clearly not correct. Let's look at hour 60 then shall we? Still too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 LOL at that being an exact replica of the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT loves to troll the weenies lol. His map doesn't look too far off base though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Shut off at 72? Very wrong. This is not a 6 hour totals panel. Precip panels always show the previous 6 or 12 hours. In this case, it's the previous 12. Juicy on the UKMET. Well over 1" QPF for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's previous 12 hours precip. It's over by then. If you all want to believe it's snow, then fine by me. This isn't going to hold anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 LOL at that being an exact replica of the 12z euro. He will make a 2nd call after the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT is basically HUGGING the EURO, what will be interesting to see if the EURO shifts slightly east tonight, what he will then do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT MAP ummm.. Wrong thread. Consider DT's maps based on the prior Euro run. That's usually how it works with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let's look at hour 60 then shall we? Still too warm for snow. and you're still showing me surface temps to make your point. 850's below zero at that time. SHow me a NON surface layer, including 925 above 0 to prove to me thats not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Precip panels always show the previous 6 or 12 hours. In this case, it's the previous 12. Juicy on the UKMET. Well over 1" QPF for most of the area. Yeah, I realize that, my argument is about temps. I don't see any panels where the surface is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So the euro essentially Not exactly, he's somewhat between the 2 but mostly Euro...the Euro would not indicate 1-4 inches in NYC, its all rain....I don't agree with anyone starting as rain really or even going back to snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So the euro essentially He loves his Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 yanks fan, see earthlight's post on the other forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If you all want to believe it's snow, then fine by me. This isn't going to hold anyway. The 0z Ukie is in between the 12z Euro and 0z GFS. It's definitely a little tight to the coast for comfort, but it's still a good dump for much of the area. It's unlike the GFS, however, in that Long Island is probably mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 and you're still showing me surface temps to make your point. 850's below zero at that time. SHow me a NON surface layer, including 925 above 0 to prove to me thats not snow. Those free maps only show 850 and 2M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let's look at hour 60 then shall we? Still too warm for snow. Now post the 850's at hour 60 lol and try ignoring 1.5 inches of liquid that will cause the model to miss evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not exactly, he's somewhat between the 2 but mostly Euro...the Euro would not indicate 1-4 inches in NYC, its all rain....I don't agree with anyone starting as rain really or even going back to snow at the end. What do you think will happen from a met pov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, I realize that, my argument is about temps. I don't see any panels where the surface is cold enough for snow. You can't see hour 66. But we can see the meteograms and it's snow. And a lot of it for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll end all argument, buddy at UK Met office tells me the UKMET is 5.3 inches of snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You can't see hour 66. But we can see the meteograms and it's snow. And a lot of it for NYC. Well, if that's the case then my area must have done really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Those free maps only show 850 and 2M. Take a break. Your posts regarding the Ukie in the last half hour have been really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll end all argument, buddy at UK Met office tells me the UKMET is 5.3 inches of snow for NYC With temps on the warmer side ratios like 7-8:1 probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll end all argument, buddy at UK Met office tells me the UKMET is 5.3 inches of snow for NYC 5.3" on what almost 2" liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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