WE GOT HIM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mean on the SREF Plume is 8.59 for LGA FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anyone doing PBP for the NAM or is it still too early for that sack of potatoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I mean I wasn't making any type of formal declaration that it was purely an elevation driven snow event; I saw the 19 inches up at West Milford...which, I guess is above the 1000' a.s.l. topographic contour...and just described it as I did. Ironically, I'm the spotter who reported the 19" snowfall in West Milford in the October 2011 event. An extraordinarily difficult snowfall to measure as temps were marginal and it was such a wet snowfall. There was great variety not only within the township (a rather large town of 80 square miles with much change in elevation) but even within my own property. The 19" number was an average of sorts and, looking back, perhaps under the conditions encountered, I should have reported the maximum measurement of 25" I measured on the flat. However, there were other measurements as low as 14". Not knowing I was the person who reported the official measurement and which the national media happened to pick up on (although there was a higher official measurement in NJ of 19.1" by a spotter in adjoining Highland Lakes), reactions from people in town were very telling -- some saying that we had far less than 19" and others complaining that they had far more. In reality, both were right. I remember telling the Weather Channel crew who were covering the storm live from our town that they'd be better off moving to a higher elevation spot. However, due to some technical reasons they needed to stay where they were, which happened to be at one of the lowest elevations of the entire township. Consequently, I doubt they received more than a foot or so in the spot they were reporting from. Elevation was huge in that storm; probably a 500 year event, considering the calendar and the amount of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anyone doing PBP for the NAM or is it still too early for that sack of potatoes? I can do it, I have WxBell. If you want to, someone else can do GFS EURO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No need to do NAM PBP, you can just state afterwards if it shows anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mean on the SREF Plume is 8.59 for LGA FWIW Shows several inches for JFK also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No need to do NAM PBP, you can just state afterwards if it shows anything significant. thats what I am doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Shows several inches for JFK also. They are not reliable at this point. Shows similar for EWR (slightly less actually than LGA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Anyone doing PBP for the NAM or is it still too early for that sack of potatoes? too early to even consider the NAM seriously as the storm is still over 60 hours away from starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There is nothing better at the moment... Do a PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Na na na na, hey hey, goodbye Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, goodbye Loved to hear that sung up at the Forum whenever the Habs took out anyone...*especially* the Bruins. Seriously the Canadians? Eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM definitely coming west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam actually might be a hair east. not a good run, definitely east with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM is barely a coastal scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's something that is exaggerated time and time again. Heavy snow will quickly overcome warm ground temperatures. We've seen it several times where temps were in the 60s just a day or two before an event. Once it sticks, it becomes the foundation for the rest of the snow to stick to. Without heavy precip though, that is correct, it will have a very tough time. Otherwise, we've seen it stick in mid April following a day in the 60s to almost 70The Easter Snowstorm of 1970 was a case in point. In 60's day before, 6-8" accumulation at least in Scarsdale. I think KNYC only got 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam actually might be a hair east.Kindly give it a rest, it's tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Kindly give it a rest, it's tossed. What? Give it a rest, I said one thing about the run. About THIS storm, please don't talk like that when it shouldn't be/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z Nam is a colder solution for the area but the low ended up way east of the benchmark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam , not in range and Nam not reliable so let's see what ..gfs and euro shows later .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 not a good solution, throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wxbell snowmap has eastern LI getting the highest accumulations out of the area LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think it would be funny to see the NAM lead the start of the east trend. We are worried about a west trend, what about an east trend causing a coastal scraper lol. Until the 00z GFS/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think it would be funny to see the NAM lead the start of the east trend. We are worried about a west trend, what about an east trend causing a coastal scraper lol. Until the 00z GFS/Euro It's a different solution. The southern stream outruns everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's a different solution. The southern stream outruns everything. Exactly one of the many solutions we will see tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why discuss the Nam , might as well bring in the JMA ; I remb that model picked up on a monster storm few years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Exactly one of the many solutions we will see tonight. I would not hang my hat in the NAM leading the way. It looks nothing like the GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Exactly one of the many solutions we will see tonight. If you are gonna use the NAM @ 84 hrs might as well take a 300hr GFS solution and lock it in. Hopefully one day you will learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam is okay under 48 hrs but preferably under 36. Even then it can often have serious problems with how much liquid it spews out. The gfs/Euro combo is tough to beat but I am hoping for some slight eastward adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If you are gonna use the NAM @ 84 hrs might as well take a 300hr GFS solution and lock it in. Hopefully one day you will learn Who says I'm using the NAM, I'm just posting what a model shows since there is downtime until the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Stop the bickering, it's already getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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