nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Totally, but usually it's an isothermal situation in the lower layers that sometimes doesn't bode well for the urban centers. The high thicknesses are just because the BL is warm from the antecedent airmass...Soundings tell us the column is cold enough for snow, especially on the 18z GFS with the H85 and H7 low passing to the east. Even on the 12z ECM, 850s in Westchester are like -4C at 81 hours...the warming occurs between 84 and 87 hours as the mid-levels climb the coast and approach too close. Thicknesses are an outdated means of measuring temperatures and determining precip type. Much better to look at a sounding and see where the warm layer actually is...You can snow with 542dam thicknesses and rain with 538 thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The high thicknesses are just because the BL is warm from the antecedent airmass...Soundings tell us the column is cold enough for snow, especially on the 18z GFS with the H85 and H7 low passing to the east. Even on the 12z ECM, 850s in Westchester are like -4C at 81 hours...the warming occurs between 84 and 87 hours as the mid-levels climb the coast and approach too close. Thicknesses are an outdated means of measuring temperatures and determining precip type. Much better to look at a sounding and see where the warm layer actually is...You can snow with 542dam thicknesses and rain with 538 thicknesses. Hence why I asked about the sounding. Thanks for the info, I'm out on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 this is November so my expectations are tempted for this a lot. however, would the changeover last long enough with decent rates to actually accumulate? I don't like putting backend snows on a pedestal as they don't materialize often like this years February snow storm where models were showing a good backend snow after a flip to rain. ended up being snow-rain and that was that in the end East of JFK is gona b hard man . My argument has been the park and Newark . It reminds of 2010. Once over the Hudson it's snowing. You are gona b on an east wind earlier and then so close to the center by the time the 850's cool Suffolk the best lifting has passed you. I don't think there's a lot of hope for you with this. Unlike 2010 where there was blocking and the backside came through and you guys picked up a foot at the end . This time this is ripping NNE and once you flip the flip back may just be some wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 still have December, January and February for my snow chances. good luck to all inland, EURO looks be king of the Miller A's still. incredible that with a +NAO we can still get a power house Miller A. barring a substantial shift east on EURO, LI is out of this BUT NYC still has a chance for more than half of precip to be snow with this storm Wow really? Li is out three days before the event? I might have believed you before the post sandy storm. We aren't out. Do you want to be near the coast during a November storm? Normally hell no. Any flow at all of the water and we are done. But I think we see at least some snow here.I do not want a December 05 repeat with cpk ripping snow while it rained and rained here that would blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Without meaning to imply disrespect, I'm a bit surprised that anybody considers the 540 thickness line to exactly coincide with the rain/snow threshold. For all my reading and casual research, I've always known that rule to be very flexible and unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wow really? Li is out three days before the event? I might have believed you before the post sandy storm. We aren't out. Do you want to be near the coast during a November storm? Normally hell no. Any flow at all of the water and we are done. But I think we see at least some snow here. I do not want a December 05 repeat with cpk ripping snow while it rained and rained here that would blow EURO is just downright lethal with Miller A's and all other globals moving towards it. if it shifts east so much where we on LI stay all snow it would be a fail on the EURO. don't think that's the case though its NYC on west with this storm. rain for us with maybe a bit of snow in the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's not if the urban center is Manhattan True. But 99% of this forum lives outside there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 East of JFK is gona b hard man . My argument has been the park and Newark . It reminds of 2010. Once over the Hudson it's snowing. You are gona b on an east wind earlier and then so close to the center by the time the 850's cool Suffolk the best lifting has passed you. I don't think there's a lot of hope for you with this. Unlike 2010 where there was blocking and the backside came through and you guys picked up a foot at the end . This time this is ripping NNE and once you flip the flip back may just be some wet snow It's going to be really hard east of JFK. The storm is probably going to track somewhere between eastern LI and just off Montauk, which is simply no good for Long Island. Winds are much more unfavorable for the boundary layer there as well...NYC's winds are almost due north down the Hudson Valley on GFS soundings (cold air drainage), but Long Island's winds are NE or even ENE so they have a lot of maritime influence. That's one reason why high thicknesses are showing up. I didn't mean any disrespect to danstorm about his assessment of thicknesses. We agree that this is going to be tough in downtown Manhattan, Brooklyn, Long Island. I think higher thicknesses are less important in the suburbs that are further from the coast and more likely to get a "paste bomb." Thicknesses have consistently been show by modeling to be right near 540dam in this storm, and that's not ideal for urban areas right on the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Without meaning to imply disrespect, I'm a bit surprised that anybody considers the 540 thickness line to exactly coincide with the rain/snow threshold. For all my reading and casual research, I've always known that rule to be very flexible and unreliable. It doesn't always coincide but it's still not a bad guideline in the absence of any other info. When I see the 540 thickness way over Nw NJ at the height of the storm and I can't see soundings, my first thought isn't all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well, at least you've got the weak late November sun on your side...which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I read here or maybe elsewhere but after tomm rain ; and that system passes won't it make it easier for models to analyze things ? So hoping by tomm night oz suite things get more clear is this thinking on the right track ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I read here or maybe elsewhere but after tomm rain ; and that system passes won't it make it easier for models to analyze things ? So hoping by tomm night oz suite things get more clear is this thinking on the right track ??Well one thing is always a certainty : the closer we get to a storm, the better the models will be able to analyze it. With weather systems continually moving across the country, models will never do better yesterday than they will do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 that argument has been proven wrong if it snows hard enough and long enough. this is a powerful storm but even if their is changeover at the end I doubt there will be any accumulating snows with it. keep in mind backend snows more often than not don't perform unless the 500mb LP closes off east of LI as seen Xmas 02' IIRC Tmagan may not be the most likely to forecast accumulating snow in a borderline rain / snow situation...but he is very well acquainted with both the climatology & general climate history of the Greater NY area...I always factor his collective take on these sort of things into my consciousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You have any link that is working since TT has been down? I saw posted on twitter awhile back by Ryan Maue that the GFS upgrade is free to access as of now. It seems to work for me as I'm not a WB subscriber. http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_region.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's going to be really hard east of JFK. The storm is probably going to track somewhere between eastern LI and just off Montauk, which is simply no good for Long Island. Winds are much more unfavorable for the boundary layer there as well...NYC's winds are almost due north down the Hudson Valley on GFS soundings (cold air drainage), but Long Island's winds are NE or even ENE so they have a lot of maritime influence. That's one reason why high thicknesses are showing up. I didn't mean any disrespect to danstorm about his assessment of thicknesses. We agree that this is going to be tough in downtown Manhattan, Brooklyn, Long Island. I think higher thicknesses are less important in the suburbs that are further from the coast and more likely to get a "paste bomb." Thicknesses have consistently been show by modeling to be right near 540dam in this storm, and that's not ideal for urban areas right on the ocean. Can't disagree. Watch the center from OBX to AC that's the best chance for the city to accumulate.Once to AC poof . If we can get the center 100 miles off AC then track ENE we get saved That s not modeled . Pinning down the R/S line here is gona be a good exercise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I saw posted on twitter awhile back by Ryan Maue that the GFS upgrade is free to access as of now. It seems to work for me as I'm not a WB subscriber. http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_region.php Ah very true ! It does work.....not too mobile-friendly but it works. Thanks for the tip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Can't disagree. Watch the center from OBX to AC that's the best chance for the city to accumulate. Once to AC poof . If we can get the center 100 miles off AC then track ENE we get saved That s not modeled . Pinning down the R/S line here is gona be a good exercise Even with a cold arctic anticyclone perched over Quebec...a northeast bound surface feature almost has to be east of your (NYC area) longitude by the time it reaches 39 N / Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I saw posted on twitter awhile back by Ryan Maue that the GFS upgrade is free to access as of now. It seems to work for me as I'm not a WB subscriber. http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_region.php Thanks. That's bad news for an upgrade that has a worse eastern bias than the old model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS looks even a little snowier than the 12z version over Jersey...though the transition to rain zone stayed more or less in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Thanks. That's bad news for an upgrade that has a worse eastern bias than the old model. Note to self ignore PGFS miller A solutions in the mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS looks even a little snowier than the 12z version over Jersey...though the transition to rain zone stayed more or less in the same spot.Wow I'm surprised to see that. Though we know that won't happen with a track like that (no way high point NJ doesn't see more than Newark, NJ), I wouldn't think that it would paint such a snowy picture so close to the NJ coast. Bigtime cutoff though once you get into Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z Nam, of course reflects the colder, more eastward focused solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Note to self ignore PGFS miller A solutions in the mid range I wonder if this has something to do with the delay in the implementation to January now. It didn't look so bad a few weeks ago with some of our other storms. That's even further east than the OP at 18z. The best hope now for NYC to pick up something would be a slight jog east back to MTP 0Z Euro and not the ISP track on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I live in the north west burbs, but some good news for you coastal folks is the trough... If you notice the trough on the euro is negative and Further north, the GFS and ensembles while still technically a negative trough are much further east and much less deep in their dip forcing the more eastern track, this could really be the difference here between who sees snow, rain, and mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Since the Portland Storm back in 1898...Central Park has seen only one November snowstorm of at least 5 inches in the ensuing 115 years (1938)...maybe they're overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Since the Portland Storm back in 1898...Central Park has seen only one November snowstorm of at least 5 inches in the ensuing 115 years (1938)...maybe they're overdue. Although technically not November Oct 2011 was even earlier, I believe it was a record snow event for October for most of nyc and Jersey with 5.3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder if this has something to do with the delay in the implementation to January now. It didn't look so bad a few weeks ago with some of our other storms. That's even further east than the OP at 18z. The best hope now for NYC to pick up something would be a slight jog east back to MTP 0Z Euro and not the ISP track on the 12z Euro. You would only get that if it's weaker then it could fade east. But with that comes weaker dynamics and BL issues. Think we stuck man weaker and warm strong and warmer A bomb to CC would do it. But that means I gotta go to war with the GFS and that makes me feel dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Although technically not November Oct 2011 was even earlier, I believe it was a record snow event for October for most of nyc and Jersey with 5.3? 'Bout 2.9 inches in the Park with the October 2011 event...obviously *much* more over elevated sections of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 'Bout 2.9 inches in the Park with the October 2011 event...obviously *much* more over elevated sections of the interior. I stand corrected, must have been northwestern Jersey with 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 As others have said the wind direction out here for us coast people will be important. Hopefully we can get the Euro to nudge east 75 miles or so because if it's a deepening storm heading east of us, the wind direction will be northerly or NNE (deepening lows pull air towards them), and the 850/925mb lows will be east of us. If it's an outcome like the Euro with crazy amplification and the flow slowing down, the low will hug the coast for too long and warm air will overwhelm for places east of I-287 eventually. Eventually the progressive nature of the trough and kicker will nudge the storm east, the question is where this happens. Right now I'd hedge my bets on it mainly being wet where I am and for most near the coast, with maybe a few hour period either at the front or end of the storm where there can be an inch or two of slop. But dynamics can overcome a marginal airmass this time of the year-it snowed at my house on Halloween 2011 and there was over a half foot in much of Nassau County on Nov 7, 2012. I don't think it takes a huge shift to make it snowier from the city and east. I'd say the I-287 corridor is the best bet for 6"+ right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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