MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Don't worry about temps right now. Look to see if the pattern supports a storm. If the models consistently show a storm, worry about track/intensity/temps/precipitation types inside 72 hours. I know that. I'm just stating what the model shows. Take everything with a grain of salt this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All blocking does is cause bigger storms. Who's to say this storm doesn't fly by, but the LP still drops a few inches ❄️ Quote Edit Delete That's quite a simplistic way of looking at blocking vs lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 That's quite a simplistic way of looking at blocking vs lack of blocking.all I'm saying is there's a chance of precipitation. Now if the precipitation hits the ground, it looks like it will be cold enough to snow (unlike weather channel and the rest show us raining for Wednesdays storm). I think if there's precipitation around it will be snow. The question is how east offshore is this system? Do we even get any QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I love how some people are all in and then all out on the next model run 5-6 days away Lol. Seriously. Anyway, long ways to go. Euro ensembles were a bit more promising earlier, I'm interested too see what they have tonight. I look at the models when I wake up. That's the first thing that I do lol. I would stay up for the Euro but I am tooo tired. Now if a snowstorm was approaching, I would pull an all nighter. Did that a couple of times last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 all I'm saying is there's a chance of precipitation. Now if the precipitation hits the ground, it looks like it will be cold enough to snow (unlike weather channel and the rest show us raining for Wednesdays storm). I think if there's precipitation around it will be snow. The question is how east offshore is this system? Do we even get any QPF. It depends on the intensity of the storm and the track. If we just get light precip, it will be in the form of rain. Remember ,it's still November so we need heavier rates to cool the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It depends on the intensity of the storm and the track. If we just get light precip, it will be in the form of rain. Remember ,it's still November so we need heavier rates to cool the boundary layer.yea like dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling but mostly the dynamic cooling because that impacts the other. The stronger the storm the more dynamic cooling you will have. Last year with virtual no blocking, we still managed mad snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Good speculation and this is a weather board but too far into the future to have any confidence in making a forecast. For the record the current progs have the low pressure systems moving outside of the 40/70 benchmark and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 yea like dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling but mostly the dynamic cooling because that impacts the other. The stronger the storm the more dynamic cooling you will have. Last year with virtual no blocking, we still managed mad snow.Last year we had transient blocking with good timing. It was a -epo driven winter which helped keep us cold throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Last year we had transient blocking with good timing. It was a -epo driven winter which helped keep us cold throughout.i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 all I'm saying is there's a chance of precipitation. Now if the precipitation hits the ground, it looks like it will be cold enough to snow (unlike weather channel and the rest show us raining for Wednesdays storm). I think if there's precipitation around it will be snow. The question is how east offshore is this system? Do we even get any QPF? It's not necessarily cold enough for snow on the coast for the first wave. The 12z ECM shows 540 dam thicknesses slicing through the coast for the Wednesday event. There's a reason for this: the antecedent airmass is very warm, and the cold frontal passage causes compressional warming on W winds for the coastal plain. The models showing warm surface temps are justified. And it's late November, the average high is 50F in NYC. Precipitation type is a real concern should the first system be the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro doesn't look half bad, the last piece is lagging behind up in the Northern Plains. Broad low off the SC Coast hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 114, just East of OBX, light precip into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 120, sub 1000mb about 75 miles East of Ocean City MD. Heavy rain for the coast. Very heavy rain just offshore, could be snow well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 123 low 990's SW of the benchmark. Temps crashing, paste NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 126 sub 992mb right over Cape Cod. precip starting to shut off. Textbook interior paste job. Mostly rain for the immediate coast. Storm uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hour 126 sub 992mb right over Cape Cod. precip starting to shut off. Textbook interior paste job. Mostly rain for the immediate coast. Storm uncancel.that sounds great we need a phase. But we definitely need the coastal to be the main low to produce it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's well over an inch liquid. More East. 925mb and 850mb look to be below freezing. Biggest problem is the surface, but that could easily be wrong. It's not an epic bomb, but it's a really nice hit for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thread the needle, and it hauls up the coast. Ocean City to the Twin Forks in about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thread the needle, and it hauls up the coast. Ocean City to the Twin Forks in about 4 hours. Twin forks? Ugh don't like that run. Congrats Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z ECM @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thread the needle, and it hauls up the coast. Ocean City to the Twin Forks in about 4 hours. Sounds like a beauty for the interior.. What are the surface temps for the coast & for areas > 50 miles from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 00z ECM @ 120 f120.gif looks great. As long as 850's are below freezing we should be good for snow with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 EURO 0z snowfall map... that looks great one of the 3 panels of 3 hour each that show accumulating snow for our region. It looks great. I'd say this would be a 3-6 inch or more for NYC metro Second image is also euro hour 132 shows significant snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Timing separate vorts and QPF are hard for the model to solve 5 days out. But watch the ridge axis for orientation and then it's just timing. It's a similar setup to the post SB storm . Where the cold front swung through after 2 days of mid 50s . The atmosphere cooled and a deepening center cooled the BL . I think the models are in good agreement as to how far through the front sags and stalls . It comes down to can the back side piece get caught in time as the southern piece lifts out. it's a good pattern for late Nov. Just a timing issue that all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I have been reading this thread , totally agree with post that says if there is potential let's talk about potential ..I have seen so many times models flip cannot hug any model at this time ; even if climo not on our side and other factors against us still interesting to track and watch the patterns ..I have a feeling our golden time to watch to will be after December 10-15 anything before that pure luck (that's just my opinion ).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro control run has near a foot of snow from Philly to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just for fun, but I like the NAM's look @ 84 hours, the baroclinic zone is set up a bit too far east, but the vort down south looks good and I like the energy coming in W of the Lakes. Hopefully we see improvement in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I for one am elated to hear that we have the NAM extrapolated past hour-84 on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 me smokin wampum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GFS big changes towards EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.