Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

[wthrmn654]

Water temperatures are running below average currently long island sound,ocean waters from Montauk to NYC...but way offshore there fairly warm still...I won't be shocked if idon't even hit 60 tomorrow... Last time forecast for alittle warm spell didn't hit the mid 50s..so many factors leading up to the turkey storm

[earthlight]

Yeah, even if the OP Euro shifts back to near MTP instead of ISP it's a big rainstorm for most of LI.

 

Makes a huge difference for the city and points west 

[bluewave]

Some snow. Still 3 days to go.

 

0z had the 1" line near the Nassau/Queens border so would be better for NYC.

[Zelocita Weather]

Wow...gfs classic monster...

[wthrmn654]

Not to mention,I'm already down to 45℉ and yet I'm on the east end lol

[REDMK6GLI]

still have December, January and February for my snow chances. good luck to all inland, EURO looks be king of the Miller A's still. incredible that with a +NAO we can still get a power house Miller A.

 

barring a substantial shift east on EURO, LI is out of this BUT NYC still has a chance for more than half of precip to be snow with this storm

[wthrmn654]

Yeah, that would be the area to watch unless the OP euro pulls a rare amped miller A bust and heads for the BM in later runs.

It's happened before where it goes west west then suddenly out top sea she goes each run later lol

[TWCCraig]

barring a substantial shift east on EURO, LI is out of this BUT NYC still has a chance for more than half of precip to be snow with this storm

 

No one can make definitive statements this far out. LI is still in it. I think the Euro is too far west. Think we see a blend of GFS/Euro, and in that case LI can see wet paste and mix and maybe go to rain when 850mb low gets close. All models have everyone finishing as snow regardless.

[PB GFI]

I would not expect this to come much further west. The Euro ensembles cluster are almost all outside OBX. The city roasts when u see the max inside. So that's a plus

These do come west then at some point they stop . I don't see running over AC no model sees that. The point that's going to matter is once east of AC is it due N though Islip or NE over CC.

I like that we are outside obx. Outside AC . The last piece will decide KNYC and EWR fate. And to the NS boarder as well.

[IsentropicLift]

I would not expect this to come much further west. The Euro ensembles cluster are almost all outside OBX. The city roasts when u see the max inside. So that's a plus

These do come west then at some point they stop . I don't see running over AC no model sees that. The point that's going to matter is once east of AC is it due N though Islip or NE over CC.

I like that we are outside obx. Outside AC . The last piece will decide KNYC and EWR fate. And to the NS boarder as well.

Have you actually looked at the cluster? It's about 50/50 with many tucked in members.

[bluewave]

I would not expect this to come much further west. The Euro ensembles cluster are almost all outside OBX. The city roasts when u see the max inside. So that's a plus

These do come west then at some point they stop . I don't see running over AC no model sees that. The point that's going to matter is once east of AC is it due N though Islip or NE over CC.

I like that we are outside obx. Outside AC . The last piece will decide KNYC and EWR fate. And to the NS boarder as well.

 

West side of box looks like ISP and east side Block Island unless we see some dramatic shifts next few days.

[earthlight]

I'll take this 850mb/925mb low track any day

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f78.gif

[UKStormFan]

Damn, this looks like it has the potential to make more snow headlines across the pond! That would be 2 events before November out. 

 

So envious of this climate.

[WintersGrasp]

I'll take this 850mb/925mb low track any day

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f78.gif

Beautiful. I'd take that and risk mixing or changing to rain, over an out to sea solution with no chance ANY time

[Zelocita Weather]

I'll take this 850mb/925mb low track any day

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f78.gif

Yup...near textbook...if euro even nudges east were in busines

[danstorm]

I'll take this 850mb/925mb low track any day

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f78.gif

I'm out on my phone so can't see soundings but that looks like a pretty marginal profile. I know it sounds simple, but the 540 thickness line really does separate accumulating snow from the rest... And I know warm layers can be overcome, I just don't like basing a forecast on that. Thankfully, I don't forecast for a living!

[earthlight]

I'm out on my phone so can't see soundings but that looks like a pretty marginal profile. I know it sounds simple, but the 540 thickness line really does separate accumulating snow from the rest... And I know warm layers can be overcome, I just don't like basing a forecast on that. Thankfully, I don't forecast for a living!

I don't agree that the 540 line is a yes/no for accumulating snow at all. I've had many high thickness snow events and almost all of them have featured storm tracks similar to this one.

[PB GFI]

Have you actually looked at the cluster? It's about 50/50 with many tucked in members.

You really are a rube . Look at the ensemble mean cluster outside AC .

Post them. You tell me that's 50 50 off AC. Or when I get home I will post them . The cluster off AC is about 90 perc p

outside AC. Do u just make stuff up. Do you think we don't see where the clusters are.

[tmagan]

Even if it did change to snow in the urban areas, there wouldn't be any accumulation given the ground temperatures.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Even if it did change to snow in the urban areas, there wouldn't be any accumulation given the ground temperatures.

are you serious with this please stop...

[REDMK6GLI]

Yup...near textbook...if euro even nudges east were in busines

if it nudges east so the LP can pass over block island LI would be back in business and still NYC/LHV & NJ. a MTK point track would be warm for 90% of the storm for LI

[danstorm]

I don't agree that the 540 line is a yes/no for accumulating snow at all. I've had many high thickness snow events and almost all of them have featured storm tracks similar to this one.

Totally, but usually it's an isothermal situation in the lower layers that sometimes doesn't bode well for the urban centers.

[WintersGrasp]

Even if it did change to snow in the urban areas, there wouldn't be any accumulation given the ground temperatures.

That's something that is exaggerated time and time again. Heavy snow will quickly overcome warm ground temperatures. We've seen it several times where temps were in the 60s just a day or two before an event. Once it sticks, it becomes the foundation for the rest of the snow to stick to. Without heavy precip though, that is correct, it will have a very tough time. Otherwise, we've seen it stick in mid April following a day in the 60s to almost 70

[IsentropicLift]

If you take a compromise of the Euro and GFS that's pretty good for most of us. Climo is just west of the benchmark.

[REDMK6GLI]

Even if it did change to snow in the urban areas, there wouldn't be any accumulation given the ground temperatures.

that argument has been proven wrong if it snows hard enough and long enough. this is a powerful storm but even if their is changeover at the end I doubt there will be any accumulating snows with it. keep in mind backend snows more often than not don't perform unless the 500mb LP closes off east of LI as seen Xmas 02' IIRC

[PB GFI]

The ensemble cluster is outside OBX. Outside AC but the stronger members are inside the BM

So the last part of the mean is where KNYC and EWR get paid.

I find it hard not to accumulate at those 2 places w those Rates before a flip to rain. Then once east you could flip Bask to snow. You can overcome 33 34 at the surface on a NE wind and minus 2 at 850.

[TeleConnectSnow]

Tracking is more exciting than the actual storm.

[danstorm]

That's something that is exaggerated time and time again. Heavy snow will quickly overcome warm ground temperatures. We've seen it several times where temps were in the 60s just a day or two before an event. Once it sticks, it becomes the foundation for the rest of the snow to stick to. Without heavy precip though, that is correct, it will have a very tough time. Otherwise, we've seen it stick in mid April following a day in the 60s to almost 70

It's not if the urban center is Manhattan

[REDMK6GLI]

If you take a compromise of the Euro and GFS that's pretty good for most of us. Climo is just west of the benchmark.

if you get dumped on with a lot snow good for you man. ill pull for you even if im 33 and rain (that in itself is downright painful and just makes for a disgusting day). I would rather dryslot

[REDMK6GLI]

The ensemble cluster is outside OBX. Outside AC but the stronger members are inside the BM

So the last part of the mean is where KNYC and EWR get paid.

I find it hard not to accumulate at those 2 places w those Rates before a flip to rain. Then once east you could flip Bask to snow. You can overcome 33 34 at the surface on a NE wind and minus 2 at 850.

this is November so my expectations are tempted for this a lot. however, would the changeover last long enough with decent rates to actually accumulate? I don't like putting backend snows on a pedestal as they don't materialize often like this years February snow storm where models were showing a good backend snow after a flip to rain. ended up being snow-rain and that was that in the end