IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 18z GFS is a lot more aggressive now with the trailing shortwave, even more so than the 12 ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 okx and phi are hinting at a rain to snow scenario for the coast and i completely disagree. looks like a heavy snow thump to mix/rain IMO. all models show a heavy wall of precip with temps just barely cold enough... that's a pasting I disagree with the front end snow idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 18z GFS is a lot more aggressive now with the trailing shortwave, even more so than the 12 ECMWF. Seems so. Still early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 okx and phi are hinting at a rain to snow scenario for the coast and i completely disagree. looks like a heavy snow thump to mix/rain IMO. all models show a heavy wall of precip with temps just barely cold enough... that's a pasting I think u snow there's going to be plenty of lift as this deepens outside OBX and minus 2 at 850 and 33 get it done. .That's where knyc and EWR accumulate . Then as that center gets to AC there should enough of an easterly component so the coast flips but as that center gets east of the area those 850s crash do I can see a quick flip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Trailing shortwave is over Nebraska, it was over SD same hour on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I disagree with the front end snow idea.why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think u snow there's going to be plenty of lift as this deepens outside OBX and minus 2 at 850 and 33 get it done. .That's where knyc and EWR accumulate . Then as that center gets to AC there should enough of an easterly component so the coast flips but as that center gets east of the area those 850s crash do I can see a quick flip back Yep, paste to rain to snow... With only slushy accums front end then a few inches on the back. Of course, lots of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Even the 18z NAM is above freezing at the surface at the coast. Don't look at the precip totals as they include the rain for tonight. >1" in spots. True, but I think I could squeeze some snow out of this sounding.....But its the NAM, so.....Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The trailing shortwave is so much more amped, this should come West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Full fledged cave to Euro, big low near SC coast hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 why? Airmass is very borderline at the start, 540 thicknesses generally north/West of the metro. BL is a problem for the coast. If a few inches are to fall in nyc s and even I think it's on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's actually got more interaction with the trailing vort than the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Full fledged cave to Euro, big low near SC coast hour 66. Not quite The 925mb low is closed off the coast of OBX on the GFS....perfect mid level center track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hour 72 big low just SE of OBX, H5 low is closed off over the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Airmass is very borderline at the start, 540 thicknesses generally north/West of the metro. BL is a problem for the coast. If a few inches are to fall in nyc s and even I think it's on the back side. never put any faith in back end snows in a storm, been burned 90% of the time with that prediction in several storms. im expecting maybe mix to start where I am (SW Suffolk county) to rain and staying as that. last time ive seen atleast respectable backend snows was Xmas 02' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not quite The 925mb low is closed off the coast of OBX on the GFS....perfect mid level center track. The mid-level centers are East of the Euro, but the track of the parent low is going to be West of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yea. Like Euro. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not quite The 925mb low is closed off the coast of OBX on the GFS....perfect mid level center track. It's still east of the Euro. 996mb low near 40/70 BM at 81hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The heavier precip shifted 75 miles NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Still East of the Euro, so better for NE NJ, NYC, etc. This is a GREAT solution for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Still East of the Euro, so better for NE NJ, NYC, etc. This is a GREAT solution for the majority. taken a step towards the EURO though which unless it has an historical fail will nail this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's over an inch liquid for mostly everyone, warning criteria snowfall west of the GSP. One layer is above freezing, not sure what it is as I've looked at 850mb 700mb and 925mb and they all look okay. The 700mb low closes off right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS 2m winds more NE. Warmest 40F+ over Eastern LI. 925mb 0C line is reaches the Eastern LI and CNJ. Everyone else looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's over an inch liquid for mostly everyone, warning criteria snowfall west of the GSP. One layer is above freezing, not sure what it is as I've looked at 850mb 700mb and 925mb and they all look okay. The 700mb low closes off right overhead. ALso, I know you mentioned only 1 layer above freezing, but this looks to be a very amped storm... the harder the precip falls the better it is for it to change or stay snow vs lighter accum and it switches to snizzle or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 taken a step towards the EURO though which unless it has an historical fail will nail this storm Yeah, even if the OP Euro shifts back to near MTP instead of ISP it's a big rainstorm for most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z PGFS is till a coastal scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z PGFS is till a coastal scraper. You have any link that is working since TT has been down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You have any link that is working since TT has been down? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, even if the OP Euro shifts back to near MTP instead of ISP it's a big rainstorm for most of LI. Some snow. Still 3 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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