JSantanaNYC Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Its good to see the ensembles are not west of the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro mean is just west of benchmark East. The control is west , looks like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EPS looks good. Lock it in. I expect the NAM and CMC will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 East. The control is west , looks like the OP To be fair they mean is probably on the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro cluster Looks more amped up to me from 00Z though. Could still be trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 To be fair they mean is probably on the BMEuro mean isnt bad at all. Right over BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro cluster Looks like a bunch of unrealistically weak members skewing the mean too far east. Most of the amped solutions of 992 mb and lower are tucked in. Should come west later runs when more of the members see deepening potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the euro ens mean is west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If it does come as far west as the ECM, dynamic cooling is going to be a big factor. With 850s at -2 and a warm layer above that, it's going to depend on precipitation intensity for snow vs rain. Almost starting to look like 2/26/10 with the curl west and so much warm air ahead of the storm. I am a little nervous about the west tick but whoever stays all snow this close to the storm will get a lot. I'd rather be a little further up the valley but still a good shot here. After the 12z Euro run thats the first thought that came to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like a bunch of unrealistically weak members skewing the mean too far east. Most of the amped solutions of 992 mb and lower are tucked in. Should come west later runs when more of the members see deepening potential. Islip to Montauk would be my guess for the center to cross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 After the 12z Euro run thats the first thought that came to mind... It will be difficult to not get at least a 5 inch snowfall in most of Orange County from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks like a bunch of unrealistically weak members skewing the mean too far east. Most of the amped solutions of 992 mb and lower are tucked in. Should come west later runs when more of the members see deepening potential. Looks like WPC has been going with the gfs and to some extent the Euro ensemble mean thinking the Ukie and Euro OP might be too amped up.SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTH LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE LIKE THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE, THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET ARE THE SHARPEST OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE BREADTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z NAM WAS THE WEAKEST AND BROADEST WITH THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH -- WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN A CLOSE SECOND -- SHOWING A BROADER SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS/09Z SREF MEAN, WHICH SAILS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WELL OUT TO SEA. OVERALL, FEEL THE 12Z GFS/09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THE BEST (THOUGH THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS LIKELY TOO WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE). A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE MORNING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AND WAS COORDINATED WITH THE DAY 2/3 QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DESKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the euro ens mean is west of 0z Looking at the stronger members looks like this still tugs west and could cross mid island or just east . However even the stronger members are E of AC . So I think KNYC and EWR accumulate before the mid layers jump and they turn over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 They're all show puppets reading a Teleprompter... All those morning mets like Amy freeze for example make me feel like they just pull people off the street Amy Freeze has more credentials then probably all of them combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml the lunatic fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 3 days out and we're in the 4" 40% prob is very impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM now looks more like the GFS.....decided to throw the precip back...ehhhh just a few hundred miles to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM now looks more like the GFS.....decided to throw the precip back...ehhhh just a few hundred miles to the west If I'm not mistaken, I think the NAM may have trended towards more significant precipitation in the NYC area before the upgraded GFS, which is already significantly behind its operational counterpart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam close to classic 95 snowstorm...maybe we want touch west, but still nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam close to classic 95 snowstorm...maybe we want touch west, but still nice Had the NAM not been so insanely east initially and following its usual bias this would be a good sign for the anti Euro people right now since the NAM tends to be very amped at this range and is often west of the most amped global model...but given where it was it cannot be trusted...if it holds around that area tonight maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nam close to classic 95 snowstorm...maybe we want touch west, but still nice Expect the westward shift on the NAM to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 mt holly put out a snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton: POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAINAND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINSMODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEMLIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING ANDULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODELFIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITHPHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OFDEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THECOAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT ISWITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGEENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVEENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS ISRESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUTMAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ONTRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WESTAND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WESTAND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLYNEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACKBETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOWPRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULDBRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO ANDSW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKNORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OFSEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NENJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWPOSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE INTHESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVEMENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR ADETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Had the NAM not been so insanely east initially and following its usual bias this would be a good sign for the anti Euro people right now since the NAM tends to be very amped at this range and is often west of the most amped global model...but given where it was it cannot be trusted...if it holds around that area tonight maybe. I particularly look forward every storm watch inside a few days to see the NAM give us that run where it shows 2.5-3" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I wonder what the analogs are for the upcoming winter for El Nino years that receive snow in NYC during the month of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton: POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK. OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON. WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST. okx and phi are hinting at a rain to snow scenario for the coast and i completely disagree. looks like a heavy snow thump to mix/rain IMO. all models show a heavy wall of precip with temps just barely cold enough... that's a pasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Forky, I am glad you are on board. Do you think we will see any major changes or do we have a good idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Even the 18z NAM is above freezing at the surface at the coast. Don't look at the precip totals as they include the rain for tonight. >1" in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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