Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

[PB GFI]

The 12z Euro has a 70kt+ southerly 700mb jet and 700mb temps +3C to +5C from Newark SE during the height of the storm.

By then the damage may be done at EWR

[rgwp96]

The high resolution Euro shows exactly what I'm talking about. If not a paste-bomb west of EWR, it's very close to being one. 

 

At 84 hours in Northeast NJ (using the sw to ne trajectory from Union to Bergen counties as an example) the 925mb temperatures at -2, 850mb temperatures are -2, and 700mb temperatures have just risen from -4 to +2. So there is mid level taint occurring above cold air that is rooted nearer to the surface. 

 

That can be overcome with heavy, dynamic precipitation in some areas which is what the Euro is showing. Closer to the coast, that is not possible because the warm layer is more expansive. 

plus 2 will be a hard temp to over come. i may be looking at the dreaded 33 and cold rain in northern morris

[bluewave]

I wonder if someone hears thunder with that kind of deepening

 

Yeah, we have seen before with rapid deepeners. Could also be a very strong pulse

of winds right behind the storm in the CAA as the tail end of LLJ may mix down.

[REDMK6GLI]

This run looks terrible for us coast people that want some snow out of this. It figures, just when we think the Euro will trend east, it trends even further west. Remember folks, last year models were terrible to look at 48 hours out, so this solution could obviously change in either way. Wouldn't be shocked to see a trend east or west by the time the 18z models come in. Also, I wonder if this solution (west of the benchmark) is actually right. That might be telling to how the models work the rest of the winter. Also, as many of you mentioned, this is the first test of the new Parallel GFS. If we don't get anything out of this and models trend east the rest of the way, the parallel will look great. Otherwise, the Parallel will look terrible. But so far, at least for us coastal people, the GFS looks the best so far. For the very interior people, I'd say the Euro looks the best. Just my insight. But I think tonight's 0z models and tomorrow's models will be very telling.

not our storm on LI. the EURO is the by far the best model for Miller A's and I highly doubt it craps the bed and the GFS ends up being right with a more near BM track. its November you honestly want to be disappointed with this result? im more looking forward to the warm weather tomorrow and tuesday

[NYCSuburbs]

I haven't posted here in a while... just hoping I don't run into more ECMWF snow maps outputting >12" across all of northern NJ. These maps are essentially useless IMO in marginal cases like this one.

 

I'm surprised I haven't seen more from the NWS or other forecasts on the front end of the storm... NWS Upton and Mt. Holly's discussions from this morning basically seemed to focus the accumulating snow on the Wednesday night period. It's not the same setup as October 2011, although I also recall forecasts focused more on the back-end with that storm, and the front-end band ended up being the main snow producer. Even though the system is trending more amplified on the models, WAA and 850-700hPa frontogenesis are quite impressive, especially around hour 78 on the ECM with 925-700hPa temps below freezing ahead of the approaching 850-700hPa jet, and I'd think the main concern would be on Wednesday afternoon with a burst of heavy wet snow, perhaps down to near I-95 as well, before any potential changeover to sleet or rain occurs in NE NJ and farther east. Although if it keeps trending more amplified, which other posts here mention with the lack of downstream blocking/-NAO and isn't unreasonable IMO at least over the next 24-36 hours, mixing might become a more prolonged issue into northeast NJ.

[nzucker]

not our storm on LI. the EURO is the by far the best model for Miller A's and I highly doubt it craps the bed and the GFS ends up being right with a more near BM track. its November you honestly want to be disappointed with this result? im more looking forward to the warm weather tomorrow and tuesday

Long Island and Boston are almost out of the game. Still a good chance here in Westchester...the further west this comes, the warmer it gets, but it also sucks in more arctic air from the northern stream. And we get heavier precipitation so there's more dynamic cooling.

[Weather3120]

I was watching the CBS Local news on Saturday Night and Mrs. finish did not ever talk about a possible storm for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving. I do not understand every other outlet such as NBC, Fox, ABC all said they were watching for a potential. I think the CBS weather Center in NYC went to the dogs....I do not like Lonnie Quinn, Elliott, Ms. Finch....Please please bring back Craig Allen. I believe Lonnie Quinn does not have any degree in weather (Meteorlogy). What does CBS see in him?

I Also notice that the CBS Evening News at 6:30 from NYC does not ever have Lonnie Quinn on their broadcast as they use Eric Fisher who I like from their sister station in Boston so this tells me something.

It's a shame because the CBS Weather Center was very good when they had Real Weather People such as: Gordon Barnes, Allen Kasper, Bob Weaver, Frank Field, John Coleman, Craig Allen, and Mr. G.

[SkiAdk27]

Long Island and Boston are almost out of the game. Still a good chance here in Westchester...the further west this comes, the warmer it gets, but it also sucks in more arctic air from the northern stream. And we get heavier precipitation so there's more dynamic cooling.

Zucker i don't see much snow in Westchester the trend isn't good still days out but you may want to be north of Albany for this one which fits November climo

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I was watching the CBS Local news on Saturday Night and Mrs. finish did not ever talk about a possible storm for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving. I do not understand every other outlet such as NBC, Fox, ABC all said they were watching for a potential. I think the CBS weather Center in NYC went to the dogs....I do not like Lonnie Quinn, Elliott, Ms. Finch....Please please bring back Craig Allen. I believe Lonnie Quinn does not have any degree in weather (Meteorlogy). What does CBS see in him?

I Also notice that the CBS Evening News at 6:30 from NYC does not ever have Lonnie Quinn on their broadcast as they use Eric Fisher who I like from their sister station in Boston so this tells me something.

It's a shame because the CBS Weather Center was very good when they had Real Weather People such as: Gordon Barnes, Allen Kasper, Bob Weaver, Frank Field, John Coleman, Craig Allen, and Mr. G.

They're all show puppets reading a Teleprompter... All those morning mets like Amy freeze for example make me feel like they just pull people off the street

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Zucker i don't see much snow in Westchester the trend isn't good still days out but you may want to be north of Albany for this one which fits November climo

North of Albany?!?!? Lol what model are you referring to? ... Euro output has everyone North of Manhattan and rockland county almost a foot on the last run... besides with the deepening low tracking over LI, dynamic cooling could keep nyc area in play as well... (As per euro)

[Doorman]

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif

 

OPC 96hr surface cast   

 

 

buggy

[nzucker]

North of Albany?!?!? Lol what model are you referring to? ... Euro output has everyone North of Manhattan and rockland county almost a foot on the last run... besides with the deepening low tracking over LI, dynamic cooling could keep nyc area in play as well... (As per euro)

If it does come as far west as the ECM, dynamic cooling is going to be a big factor. With 850s at -2 and a warm layer above that, it's going to depend on precipitation intensity for snow vs rain. Almost starting to look like 2/26/10 with the curl west and so much warm air ahead of the storm.  

 

I am a little nervous about the west tick but whoever stays all snow this close to the storm will get a lot. I'd rather be a little further up the valley but still a good shot here.

[SkiAdk27]

North of Albany?!?!? Lol what model are you referring to? ... Euro output has everyone North of Manhattan and rockland county almost a foot on the last run... besides with the deepening low tracking over LI, dynamic cooling could keep nyc area in play as well... (As per euro)

12z euro

[JBG]

Toasty water can fuel noreasters

Sure can. 1997's Noreaster on Thanksgiving destroyed Macy Parade floats. Did nothing for snow even in Albany.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

12z euro

I'll say again... 12z euro is a major storm for the entire Hudson valley, North Western Jersey and points North and west...heaviest precip falls between lower Hudson valley to Albany, then northeastward into New England...

[Weathergun]

The Euro 700mb warm surge is comes in between 78hr and 81hrs for NE NJ and NYC. We likely go over some kind of wintry mix that doesn't accumulate much. We want this storm further east, so the core of the southerly mid-level jet stays offshore.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Anything on euro ensembles?

[WE GOT HIM]

SREFs mean looks like a prefect track. Just E of the benchmark with the adjustment to the west.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

If it does come as far west as the ECM, dynamic cooling is going to be a big factor. With 850s at -2 and a warm layer above that, it's going to depend on precipitation intensity for snow vs rain. Almost starting to look like 2/26/10 with the curl west and so much warm air ahead of the storm.

I am a little nervous about the west tick but whoever stays all snow this close to the storm will get a lot. I'd rather be a little further up the valley but still a good shot here.

I def agree that westchester is still on the borderline, but to say that North of Albany is where the snow will be has no model consensus to back that statement.. Lol.. I'm about 80 miles north of nyc after recently moving so I'm not too worried but hopefully you guys can get a tick back east or hope that dynamic cooling really keepes the turnover limited

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

SREFs mean looks like a prefect track.

I agree, I'm really surprised with the lack of blocking and early season dynamics that several models seem to be on the right track, curious as to how the GFS continues to trend

[nzucker]

I def agree that westchester is still on the borderline, but to say that North of Albany is where the snow will be has no model consensus to back that statement.. Lol.. I'm about 80 miles north of nyc after recently moving so I'm not too worried but hopefully you guys can get a tick back east or hope that dynamic cooling really keepes the turnover limited

I remember how close the 2/26 Snowicane got to changing over in Dobbs Ferry. The 850 line literally split Westchester County in half. I saw some very heavy echoes approaching on radar (this was before dual-pol) and assumed it was rain or sleet. It turned out to be the heaviest snowfall I'd ever seen, but the aggregates were clearly forming from a warm layer in the lower atmosphere. People on the other side of the County got 12" while I had 26"...that storm was at a more favorable part of the year, however. 

 

Looking at the ECM on Wunderground, 850s are still below 0C comfortably at 81 hours. At 84 hours, the 850 0C isotherm splits the City...getting very dangerous for Westchester at that point, but we're probably still snow if it's heavy enough. Then it quickly flashes over to rain/mix before ending as snow. A bit like the Feb big storm last year...snow-->rain-->snow.

 

Judging temperature profiles on the Euro is difficult though with the lack of soundings. Impossible to see the entire column and assess the potential for dynamic cooling. Also impossible to judge exactly where the 0C line is when the isotherms are so tightly packed near the developing Nor'easter...

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I remember how close the 2/26 Snowicane got to changing over in Dobbs Ferry. The 850 line literally split Westchester County in half. I saw some very heavy echoes approaching on radar (this was before dual-pol) and assumed it was rain or sleet. It turned out to be the heaviest snowfall I'd ever seen, but the aggregates were clearly forming from a warm layer in the lower atmosphere. People on the other side of the County got 12" while I had 26"...that storm was at a more favorable part of the year, however.

Looking at the ECM on Wunderground, 850s are still below 0C comfortably at 81 hours. At 84 hours, the 850 0C isotherm splits the City...getting very dangerous for Westchester at that point, but we're probably still snow if it's heavy enough. Then it quickly flashes over to rain/mix before ending as snow. A bit like the Feb big storm last year...snow-->rain-->snow.

Judging temperature profiles on the Euro is difficult though with the lack of soundings. Impossible to see the entire column and assess the potential for dynamic cooling. Also impossible to judge exactly where the 0C line is when the isotherms are so tightly packed near the developing Nor'easter...

Great post! Should be a very excited couple days of mode runs

[Heisy]

EURO ens mean is def more juiced than 00z. 

[NYCSuburbs]

The Euro 700mb warm surge is comes in between 78hr and 81hrs for NE NJ and NYC. We likely go over some kind of wintry mix that doesn't accumulate much. We want this storm further east, so the core of the southerly mid-level jet stays offshore.

Too far east might not be as good for significant snowfall either if the jet is weaker with less precipitation... there's probably some sort of a "sweet spot" closer to the 12z GFS and 0z ECM where we still get strong 700hPa frontogenesis resulting in front-end heavy snow but not far west enough as to allow the strong jet and 700hPa warmth to flood in. The northern shortwave is still over the northeast Pacific and considering that the models still aren't consistent with its handling as the 0z vs. 12z ECM indicated, I suppose it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities for a farther east and slightly weaker low, although I'm skeptical any such trend would be significant enough for a mostly snow event in NYC with the lack of any downstream -NAO/blocking.

[Weathergun]

I remember how close the 2/26 Snowicane got to changing over in Dobbs Ferry. The 850 line literally split Westchester County in half. I saw some very heavy echoes approaching on radar (this was before dual-pol) and assumed it was rain or sleet. It turned out to be the heaviest snowfall I'd ever seen, but the aggregates were clearly forming from a warm layer in the lower atmosphere. People on the other side of the County got 12" while I had 26"...that storm was at a more favorable part of the year, however. 

 

Looking at the ECM on Wunderground, 850s are still below 0C comfortably at 81 hours. At 84 hours, the 850 0C isotherm splits the City...getting very dangerous for Westchester at that point, but we're probably still snow if it's heavy enough. Then it quickly flashes over to rain/mix before ending as snow. A bit like the Feb big storm last year...snow-->rain-->snow.

 

Judging temperature profiles on the Euro is difficult though with the lack of soundings. Impossible to see the entire column and assess the potential for dynamic cooling. Also impossible to judge exactly where the 0C line is when the isotherms are so tightly packed near the developing Nor'easter...

 

Keep in mind there could be even warmer wedge between 700mb and 850mb too.

[nzucker]

Keep in mind there could be even warmer wedge between 700mb and 850mb too.

That's why soundings are critical when it's this close.

 

It doesn't matter as much on this run because 850s are comfortably below 0C at 81 hours...that's definitely snow for NYC and environs. 84 hours the 850 isotherm has advanced so it splits the City (this is when you want a sounding for KNYC and KHPN)...suburbs are probably OK with dynamic cooling and north winds, but it's getting dangerous. Everyone goes to rain at 87 as the 850 line is near High Point just southeast of the Catskills. Flashes back to snow at 90 hours before the storm ends. 

[MJO812]

Euro mean is just west of benchmark

[PB GFI]

At  78  Euro ensembles  are outside OBX  The  Control  is inside

[SnoSki14]

Again everyone's assuming things will play out exactly like the Euro op says over 3 days out. You have to use the other models and the ensembles too and form a consensus around that. A lot can still change. It seems like the question becomes how Far East the baroclinic boundary sets up as it crosses on Tuesday because the low will essentially ride along or nearby it.

[PB GFI]

The ensembles and cluster at the BM . The mean is east