bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It would be a very significant event for even the nearby interior areas to see a large accumulation only two years after the November 2012 snow. That one was a classic BM track which would be needed this time for the coast to share in the wealth. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm11072012.html http://weather.unisys.com/archive/eta_init/1211/12110712.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If KNYC or EWR are in ur forecast I will respectfully disagree. I think there's at least 3 inches there and a hope for 6. If you mean the following then I am 100 perc with you. I think the NJ shore to the N/S boarder are done but I think once to the Hudson those 850s are minus 2 and 33 at the BL 3 plus happen there I see the warm punch at hour 108 so there's def a change . I don't need blocking at KNYC with that deep center from OBX TO CC to hang on to some snow . Yes the show is N of 80 and W of 287 but I think the city w of JFK accumulates and then the gradient is steep. I'll disagree for now, as I think it will be difficult to achieve more than T-1" in Central Park with this set-up, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Paste bomb on the GFS for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gfs is a crushing snowfall for nw areas and a decent event for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'll disagree for now, as I think it will be difficult to achieve more than T-1" in Central Park with this set-up, but we'll see. I will admit one more tug west on the Euro and I get run over . And on cue the GFS goes nuts at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure what all the 'crushing" snowfall talk is about.. it's a 3-5 n/w of 95 on the GFS... with an inch or two by the coast.. no doubt MAJOR impacts given the timing but not have to go to SNE and NE before this is a 6+ type event per the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=093 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The PGFS looks east again, it's either going to score an epic coop or look like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the gfs looks to have the exact same track as 06z though slightly stronger and maybe a hair colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure what all the 'crushing" snowfall talk is about.. it's a 3-5 n/w of 95 on the GFS... with an inch or two by the coast.. no doubt MAJOR impacts given the timing but not have to go to SNE and NE before this is a 6+ type event per the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=093 Yes, based off the snow maps but it's 33 and snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure what all the 'crushing" snowfall talk is about.. it's a 3-5 n/w of 95 on the GFS... with an inch or two by the coast.. no doubt MAJOR impacts given the timing but not have to go to SNE and NE before this is a 6+ type event per the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=093 The gfs is a heavy wet 6-10" snowfall near and nw of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 i'm more optimistic about nyc snowfall than a bunch of weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure what all the 'crushing" snowfall talk is about.. it's a 3-5 n/w of 95 on the GFS... with an inch or two by the coast.. no doubt MAJOR impacts given the timing but not have to go to SNE and NE before this is a 6+ type event per the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=093 IMO "crushing" snowfall is 12"+, 6" is signifigant but no means crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z GFS about as good as we can get....significant snowstorm on tap for entire CWA (save maybe LI) per this GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z GFS about as good as we can get....significant snowstorm on tap for entire CWA (save maybe LI) per this GFS run... yeh 700 minus 1 850s minus 2 BL 33 1.5 inches of liquid . Love it - only issue for me is SE bias . If we had this 24 hours out- winter storm warnings would be up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the gfs looks to have the exact same track as 06z though slightly stronger and maybe a hair colderIt is around this time that people start using psychological methods and calling for no snow when in reality they think it's very possible that they do get snow but don't want to set themselves up for disappointment. A few inches or even more seems very possible for NYC and nearby suburbs, NOT just the interior ! (Though I guess I just jinxed myself) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yeh 700 minus 1 850s minus 2 BL 33 1.5 inches of liquid . Love it - only issue for me is SE bias . If we had this 24 hours out- winter storm warnings would be up . The key will be if the Euro continues with the MTP 72W track for a few more runs or jogs a little more east toward the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the euro still has a heavy front end thump before any mixing for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The key will be if the Euro continues with the MTP 72W track for a few more runs or jogs a little more east toward the BM. Curious to see the number of members at 12z that take it east of Providence . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 IMO suffolk/nassua border east, unless this suddenly takes a BM track the Predominant precip will be rain, maybe some snow in the beginning. Coastal hugger will bring more of an E not NE fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I realize people are pyshcing themselves out in order to prevent heart break but the trend is clearly for a snowier scenario based on both GFS / Euro. Certainly dont expect a foot but our chances at 3 inches have increased markedly in the past 24 hours & lets wait & see what Euro has to say in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Curious to see the number of members at 12z that take it east of Providence . We'll be approaching the time in a few days to watch where the convection and Gulf low formation occurs. The further east, the better off we'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 IMO suffolk/nassua border east, unless this suddenly takes a BM track the Predominant precip will be rain, maybe some snow in the beginning. Coastal hugger will bring more of an E not NE fetch. It looked like the 12z Global had the surface low move from about Hatteras to at least 100 miles SE of Montauk...so why would the wind shift into the east? Generally that track, be it with a rain storm or snow storm, will still produce a NE wind for the bulk of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 What is nice about this storm is that regardless of whether NYC stays all or mostly snow, (which I admit is unlikely) whatever falls will stay around for a couple days at least. The storm is followed by a very cold airmass for thanksgiving. Better than the storms that dump snow, turn to rain, then melt right away. I'd take a powerful storm that gives us 2-4" of snow ending cold, over 6-12" that ends as rain and is down to 3-4" that night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just looked at soundings near NYC and this is an all snow event for them, nothing from 850-925 ever really gets close and its 37/27 at the time the snow arrives with a 030-040 wind which ultimately backs...ignore snow maps, this run as it is would be all snow, I did not look at Islip but I'm not sure they'd be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just looked at soundings near NYC and this is an all snow event for them, nothing from 850-925 ever really gets close and its 37/27 at the time the snow arrives with a 030-040 wind which ultimately backs...ignore snow maps, this run as it is would be all snow, I did not look at Islip but I'm not sure they'd be much different. 84 hour sounding for the 12z GFS at Central Park: Definitely a snow signature there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It looked like the 12z Global had the surface low move from about Hatteras to at least 100 miles SE of Montauk...so why would the wind shift into the east? Generally that track, be it with a rain storm or snow storm, will still produce a NE wind for the bulk of the event. Even that December, 2000 storm...which brought huge snows to northern New Jersey...still brought the 10 inch isopleth as far east as central Long Island...despite the actual center of low pressure moving over the Westhampton Beach area en route to eastern New England. Granted there was a good deal more cold air to work with...but the principle is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the low takes a favorable track and dynamics are strong enough, it should snow right down to the coast. The early November 2012 storm had some of its heaviest totals not far from the shore, and that was 2-3 weeks earlier than this will be, in a very marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If the low takes a favorable track and dynamics are strong enough, it should snow right down to the coast. The early November 2012 storm had somie of its heaviest totals not far from the shore, and that was 2-3 weeks earlier than this will be, in a very marginal airmass.Agreed... The storm is trending stronger and will have good dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...FCST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN OVER THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST WED INTOTHU BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS TOWARD SOMEDEGREE OF MEANINGFUL PCPN. DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK THERE SHOULDBE A BAND OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS CLOSERTO THE COAST AND SNOW/BELOW FREEZING SFC TEMPS FARTHER INLAND.EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE GRTLKS REGION IN ASSOC WITH THESYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND LAKEEFFECT ACTIVITY DURING PERIODS OF COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. AS WITHSOME ASPECTS OF THE FCST OVER THE EAST... CONFIDENCE IS NOTESPECIALLY HIGH WITH WRN DETAILS EITHER. HOWEVER FOR THE 5-DAYPERIOD AS A WHOLE THERE ARE DECENT SIGNALS TOWARD ENHANCED PCPNPOTENTIAL OVER FAVORED TERRAIN FROM THE CNTRL-NRN WEST COAST INTOTHE NRN ROCKIES. FOR TEMPS... CNTRL-SRN PARTS OF THE WEST MAY SEESOME PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES FOR HIGHS WED-FRI BEFORE HGT FALLSALOFT BRING A MODERATING TREND. FARTHER EWD THE NRN TIER SHOULDBE MOST CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF SIMILARLYNEGATIVE ANOMALIES FROM THE NRN TIER INTO UPR GRTLKS. THE ERNSTATES SHOULD ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITYIN ANOMALIES.RAUSCH WPC extended disco http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd enhanced for clarity surface prog http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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