MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 9z SREF plumes show 2-4 inches for the NYC areahttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141123&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.34084293870973&mLON=-75.10023616981357&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Weenie model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Ryan Maue`s algo. Uses soundings at a10 to 1 ratio . When you get into marginal BL and 850`s you have to take them lightly . exactly plus some areas especially at the beginning of any snow falling and closer to the coast will have less then 10:1 ratio - further west you are the higher the ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This movie isn't for you. Nonsense post. Storm track can shift 250+ miles at this range. Making any definitive statements at this range is ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's good to hear...I have a flight out of Broome County Airport in Binghamton (elevation 1690) and am relieved to hear the precipitation will be in the liquid form... Oops! Meant "not as certain". Revised my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nonsense post. Storm track can shift 250+ miles at this range. Making any definitive statements at this range is ludicrous. Seriously. Did we learn nothing from last winter? 72 hours out, no consensus, lots can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This movie isn't for you. Lets all root for a further east track That screws others. Why not just concede this one and hope for better luck next time? Most people (if they are honest and forthright), including myself, could care less about how much snow falls in someone else's backyard. What's important is how much falls in one's own backyard. jesus christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seriously, take the interior vs. coastal stuff to banter, if you really feel it's worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's childish and makes this forum unreadable. Analyze the system and the models. This isn't pre-kindergarten. wouldn't you consider acknowledging those childish and biased posts with more banter and childish posts kind of hypocritical tho? I think both crews are selfish as they should be, everyone wants a setup that gives them the most snow, no matter how much you "claim" to want everyone to see snow, in defense of the "North and west" crew, it usually tends to be the case when the R/S line is somewhere between the city and rockland, we tend to get impacted with better bands, and when the R/S line is too far south we often see several hours of Virga and more band breaking due to the mountains. I think everyone needs to stop taking posts so serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 At 102 its 35 and Minus 1 at 850 ( And I would not hang my hat on the surface rising on a NE wind ) with a center from OBX to CC deepening 15 mb in 12 hours . Again its marginal but not " WELL ABOVE FREEZING " To be fair the warm punch is at 700 MB . Not the surface . So my disagreement may be in the language and not the end result . \ Especially from the city E. thanks, certainly is odd . on there facebook page they did say they are going to put out a potential snow accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton favors a near BM track.......for now UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THEPACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN ANORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE ECENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SOTHE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THEFOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUTNOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70WBENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Amazing, nam still not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Isn't it true nam not in decent range until at least tomm oz suite ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastLISouthShore Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton favors a near BM track.......for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastLISouthShore Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Upton favors a near BM track.......for now Eastern where you located I'm out in Moriches think we will get any white stuff from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Isn't it true nam not in decent range until at least tomm oz suite ? NAM doesnt have an accurate range, just a range that isnt as crappy . Its down there with the NAVGEM,CRAS etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Amazing, nam still not buying it. How is this amazing? Using the NAM at 84hrs is equivalent to using the GFS 200 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Eastern where you located I'm out in Moriches think we will get any white stuff from this? I think I am out this round, but I will be keeping my fingers crossed for the rest of you, plus this will be fun to watch develope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 How is this amazing? Using the NAM at 84hrs is equivalent to using the GFS 200 hrs out. You can't just look at the nam at 84, you have to look at how it is handling the evolution of the system, look at how it has the key players interacting, this is all occurring loooong before 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You can't just look at the nam at 84, you have to look at how it is handling the evolution of the system, look at how it has the key players interacting, this is all occurring loooong before 84hrs It's to b ignored trust us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 You can't just look at the nam at 84, you have to look at how it is handling the evolution of the system, look at how it has the key players interacting, this is all occurring loooong before 84hrs lol.. The problem is you are looking at the model 4 days out. Ignore it till Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The preset pattern looks like a favorable set-up for interior Northeast snow and mostly / all rain for the coastal corridor. If we examine the previous two late November snow events for our area, namely late November of 1995 and late November of 1989, we see that the 500mb pattern reveals fairly stout negative NAO's in both cases, with some semblance of Greenland blocking. Even more importantly, said north Atlantic blocking allows for the development of a 50/50 or pseudo 50/50 in SE Canada, sufficient to maintain the cold air source over the Northeast. That particular 500mb orientation is not present in the upcoming case. We have a broad trough with no block in SE Canada and very positive heights over Greenland. The historic pattern dictates an all or mostly rain event for the coast, and snow inland. At this point my best guess would include a changeover to potentially trace to 1" amounts for the coast, but I would lean toward the predominate precip type being rain at this juncture. Late November of 1989. Notice the strong mid level ridging over Greenland. Late November of 1995. Ridging was evident over Greenland, a negative NAO, though the major factor being a pseudo blocking vortex in SE Canada. The progged pattern as per the ECMWF is quite dissimilar to the above conducive cases for coastal significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 lol.. The problem is you are looking at the model 4 days out. Ignore it till Tuesday. Lol you guys are too much. I an not look at the nam for its solution. I am just looking at it with regards to how it is handling the phasing of the vortmax on the back side of the trough. Is this a likely solution? doesn't matter. I want to see the progression here. It was just a comment on model handling, that is all, now back to your regularly scheduled program...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The preset pattern looks like a favorable set-up for interior Northeast snow and mostly / all rain for the coastal corridor. If we examine the previous two late November snow events for our area, namely late November of 1995 and late November of 1989, we see that the 500mb pattern reveals fairly stout negative NAO's in both cases, with some semblance of Greenland blocking. Even more importantly, said north Atlantic blocking allows for the development of a 50/50 or pseudo 50/50 in SE Canada, sufficient to maintain the cold air source over the Northeast. That particular 500mb orientation is not present in the upcoming case. We have a broad trough with no block in SE Canada and very positive heights over Greenland. The historic pattern dictates an all or mostly rain event for the coast, and snow inland. At this point my best guess would include a changeover to potentially trace to 1" amounts for the coast, but I would lean toward the predominate precip type being rain at this juncture. Late November of 1989. Notice the strong mid level ridging over Greenland. Late November of 1995. Ridging was evident over Greenland, a negative NAO, though the major factor being a pseudo blocking vortex in SE Canada. The progged pattern as per the ECMWF is quite dissimilar to the above conducive cases for coastal significant snowfall. If KNYC or EWR are in ur forecast I will respectfully disagree. I think there's at least 3 inches there and a hope for 6. If you mean the following then I am 100 perc with you. I think the NJ shore to the N/S boarder are done but I think once to the Hudson those 850s are minus 2 and 33 at the BL 3 plus happen there I see the warm punch at hour 108 so there's def a change . I don't need blocking at KNYC with that deep center from OBX TO CC to hang on to some snow . Yes the show is N of 80 and W of 287 but I think the city w of JFK accumulates and then the gradient is steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The coast still has a chance but I just don't know, the Euro has LGA about 36/28 when the precip commences, if we can keep a NE surface wind in place there is a chance, the current track reminds me a bit of 1/22/87 in that it looks like the coast may be very wet when you look at the track alone but drill in deeper and it looks better for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The coast still has a chance but I just don't know, the Euro has LGA about 36/28 when the precip commences, if we can keep a NE surface wind in place there is a chance, the current track reminds me a bit of 1/22/87 in that it looks like the coast may be very wet when you look at the track alone but drill in deeper and it looks better for snow. LGA at 90 I see 34 and 850 s Minus 3 .03 700 Minus 3 NE LGA at 96 I see 34 and 850 s Minus 2 .05 700 plus 2 NNE Close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS LOADED with moisture. Looking good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I know where i am im expecting ZERO accumulations. Being on the south shore in SW suffolk these coastal huggers i torch. I have zero issues though since snow to rain sucks anyway This winter with the way it looks in the long range looks promising so its hard to be dissapointed living on the coast in november and missing a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not sure what all the banter and arguing is about (especially from those that are knowledgeable discounting the potential for others to receive snow). There still seems to be a chance for areas even around NYC to get significant snow. While it is much more likely as you head into NW NJ and the interior, no option is off the table at this point. Clearly the model guidance has not converged yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 More west and stronger on the GFS. More cold air was pulled into the storm. Coast has problems but changes to snow. Really close for the coast on this run. Inland areas get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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