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Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday


Mitchel Volk

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:32 PM, IsentropicLift said:

It's hard for me to remember a more impactvile event than what this is progged to be. You have accumulating snows at KPHL, KEWR, KJFK & KBOS during the heart of the busiest travel day of the year.

I have family flying from KBOS to KJFK Wednesday 5:30 pm. I assume it will be delayed

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:32 PM, IsentropicLift said:

It's hard for me to remember a more impactvile event than what this is progged to be. You have accumulating snows at KPHL, KEWR, KJFK & KBOS during the heart of the busiest travel day of the year.

Thankfully along I-95 surface/ground temperatures will be way too warm for any accumulations on major roadways, bigger concern is north & west of course. 

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:35 PM, Juliancolton said:

I dunno, the fact that this storm is occurring in the middle of the week might mean the weekend rule is on the fritz this season, which would naturally imply lower snowfall overall. Combine that with the fact that it's still November and you have some bad juju for the remainder of the season (until President's Day, which has its own good luck and can easily reverse an erstwhile curse).

:whistle:

We should toss all of the models past this week. I haven't seen any of them show snow for December 5th
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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:29 PM, Snow88 said:

Wxbell has 9 inches for central park.

I thought we went over this last year? Wxbell snow maps are over inflated and do not take into account ratios into their algorithms. I'd cut wxbell snow amounts by 2/3. 3"  for central park. 

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:26 PM, IsentropicLift said:

To get 8:1 ratios you're going to want 850's to be colder. They hover around -0C to -2C on the coastal plain for most of the storm.

 

Does someone have that table handy which shows what 850mb temps are best for dendrite growth? I believe -4C to -8C is optimal.

 

Dendrites are most favored to grow in temperatures near -15C with supersaturation with respect to ice. So a nearly isothermal layer around -15C with decent vertical motion would be ideal for that type of crystal growth. However, you can have a small layer with favorable conditions for dendrites but have the greatest lifting (and thus best depositional crystal growth) at warmer or colder temperatures.

 

For instance, today's 12z GFS had the best lift at 21z for LGA between 650 and 700 mb, where temperatures are forecast to be around -5C. That would favor more needles/columns and maybe small plates, both of which don't aggregate as well and have greater area densities and thus will result in lower ratios. A few dendrites or plate crystals growing aloft may collect the needles and columns but will still result in higher density aggregates compared with if they were composed primarily of dendrites.

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:55 PM, IsentropicLift said:

Rough breakdown

 

10-14" higher elevations > 40 miles NW of NYC

8-12" for areas near 287 in NJ and NY

6-8" for the immediate western burbs

6-8" northern Nassau County

3-6" in the city

2-4" south of 78 in NJ

4-6, 2-4, 1-3 rest of LI. More the further north and west you are.

Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm...

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:57 PM, rwffceas vdas said:

Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm...

It's a bit colder on the north shore than in the city.

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:55 PM, IsentropicLift said:

Rough breakdown

10-14" higher elevations > 40 miles NW of NYC

8-12" for areas near 287 in NJ and NY

6-8" for the immediate western burbs

6-8" northern Nassau County

3-6" in the city

2-4" south of 78 in NJ

4-6, 2-4, 1-3 rest of LI. More the further north and west you are.

How about for TTN?

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:57 PM, rwffceas vdas said:

Im basically in northern nassau about 5 minutes into suffolk, i just find it interesting how u have more for us then the city after all the talk about how this is going to be a city west storm...

I think it is because we get more overall precip

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  On 11/24/2014 at 6:58 PM, IsentropicLift said:

It's a bit colder on the north shore than in the city.

so basically i guess what im asking is this whole time when some of the models were showing that there would be accumulating snowfall from the city west has it always included northern nassau as well or just this run?

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  On 11/24/2014 at 7:01 PM, rwffceas vdas said:

so basically i guess what im asking is this whole time when some of the models were showing that there would be accumulating snowfall from the city west has it always included northern nassau as well or just this run?

It's dependent on the track of the mid-level cyclones. The UKMET for example tracks the 850mb low up the NJ coast and over the city, so the city East torches.

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