IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:45 PM, Juliancolton said: I'm really not sure why folks are so quick to toss the RGEM (other than that its solution is suboptimal). Nobody tossed the RGEM, other than to say it's out of range. I'm tossing the GGEM because the dry slot West of the surface low makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Let's not confuse the RGEM which only runs to 48 hours with the GGEM which runs from 0-240 hours as a completely seperate entity. Think of the RGEM like the NAM and the GGEM as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean looks really amped up through 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:46 PM, mikeysed said: anxiously awaiting the Euro.. I would love it to move a bit east but not sure it will. I think the Euro will depict what we will likely see and if it holds or moves more west - I see the NAM and GFS moving west with each new model run. The EURO is deadly accurate with Miller A storms. It rarely has a big error within this range (75 miles or more). If this storm ends up at the BM or east IMO it would be a fail for the EURO. Reason why for coastal folks this storm is pretty much all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Mean track on the GEFS looks West of the OP, it ends up right over the benchmark but it makes a closer pass to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:47 PM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: I love rgem withing 48 hours... Does very well with banding too Kind of surprised seeing OKX's snow map showing 10-14 for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: Mean track on the GEFS looks West of the OP, it ends up right over the benchmark but it makes a closer pass to ACY. Seems the kicker clipper is shunting the Low (which looks initially west) east by the time to our latitude on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:48 PM, IsentropicLift said: Nobody tossed the RGEM, other than to say it's out of range. I'm tossing the GGEM because the dry slot West of the surface low makes no sense. I think your labeling that region as a "dry slot" is misleading and way oversimplified, but there you have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: Mean track on the GEFS looks West of the OP, it ends up right over the benchmark but it makes a closer pass to ACY. I don't see that. Looks similiar but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:53 PM, Juliancolton said: I think your labeling that region as a "dry slot" is misleading and way oversimplified, but there you have it... It's 1004mb SE of the benchmark, weak sauce regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:13 PM, Snow88 said: This storm will be stronger but the track is quite similiar. look at the upper/mid levels with the current storm. The 2012 storm was more conducive for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-397-0-35109300-1416847574.gifFetching info... Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:57 PM, IsentropicLift said: It's 1004mb SE of the benchmark, weak sauce regardless. I think it actually shifted a big SE lol On 11/24/2014 at 4:58 PM, Saturn510 said: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-397-0-35109300-1416847574.gifFetching info... Ukie Disgusting. More west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukie is a 994 well inside BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:59 PM, Snow88 said: I think it actually shifted a big SE lol Disgusting. More west. I though it had a nice look to it. Near perfect track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:53 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Kind of surprised seeing OKX's snow map showing 10-14 for our area.Got a link for that?Nevermid, found it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Crazy uncle looks like a toaster bath based off the position of the low. Looks west of mostly all guidance, but it is a reminder that this thing can definitely tuck in (some Euro Ensembles have been showing that as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:56 PM, Snow88 said: I don't see that. Looks similiar but colder. It's easier to see on the spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 5:01 PM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: Ukie is a 994 well inside BM. I dont think the UKIE has changed much over the past couple days. Has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Uk pretty moist as well. If im reading it right between 20-30 mm for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 4:58 PM, Saturn510 said: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-397-0-35109300-1416847574.gifFetching info... Ukie If that isn't inside the benchmark i don't know what is.. lol Very good sign for those in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guys it's November you need to be on the i84 or north to see any real snow with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 5:01 PM, Animal said: I though it had a nice look to it. Near perfect track GEFS does On 11/24/2014 at 5:04 PM, jjvesnow said: I dont think the UKIE has changed much over the past couple days. Has it? Shifted west from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 850mb low tracks right over the NJ coast on the UKMET, that would be a problem for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 5:05 PM, SkiAdk27 said: Guys it's November you need to be on the i84 or north to see any real snow with this And sandy will hit new england, and im gonna get 1-3" from the snowicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 5:05 PM, SkiAdk27 said: Guys it's November you need to be on the i84 or north to see any real snow with this NYC saw snow in October 3 years ago and snow in early November 2 years ago. It can snow in a favorable setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its been closer to euro solution this storm. Going back to last year it seemed to be on the south east side of guidance if i remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Gorgeous. Let's hope the European takes its cue from the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the Euro shifts west today I would say the writing is on the wall for the city and coast. We're riding a tight rope here and we need a BM track with good dynamics. Anything less and its rain or nonaccumulating snow. It's starting to look like a classic N and W storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 5:08 PM, Juliancolton said: Gorgeous. Let's hope the European takes its cue from the UK. Well for me that's a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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