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Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

Mitchel Volk

By Mitchel Volk,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:26 PM, PB GFI said:

And don`t make me post the Euro control snow map . It will cause a riot ( in a good way )  it was even better than yesterdays 12z run  . I do however fear that this could tug a hair west .( just what these storms like to do ) . That said the Euro ensemble cluster is at the BM . Lets hope that looks like that at 3pm with it`s ensemble package .

I will be interested to look at the individual members as sometimes the mean is just smoothed out .

 

We always seem to be playing with fire from the Hudson on east , but that`s the norm for the region on the coastal plain .

Wxbell's snowmap is a weenie's dream :weenie:

 

  On 11/23/2014 at 1:45 PM, rgwp96 said:

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

It looks like Upton is forecasting that also with a change to snow at the end. Track is still yet to be determined .

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:47 PM, IsentropicLift said:

I've seen this movie before. Euro looks locked and loaded, other guidance struggling to catch up.

Euro is the king when it comes to Miller A's. The GFS dominated last winter because all the storms were from the northern stream.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:48 PM, Snow88 said:

Euro is the king when it comes to Miller A's. The GFS dominated last winter because all the storms were from the northern stream.

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:49 PM, IsentropicLift said:

We're ground zero for this one Buddy. NW NJ to LHV local JP.

Don't declare victory until the storm is near. Yes it looks good for you but the track could be either west of the benchmark, on the benchmark or east of the benchmark. That will make a big difference in our area.

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:45 PM, rgwp96 said:

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

Was the most interesting thing I found this AM. However, I don't think the models are showing that. I think a healthy portion of NJ and E PA get healthy snows based on both the Euro and GFS. Perhaps they are hedging, but I did find their muted cold/snow working a bit surprising to be honest.
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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:51 PM, REDMK6GLI said:

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

I think we all do

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:51 PM, REDMK6GLI said:

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

You are in a bad spot for this one bud IMO. I might be too .

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:51 PM, Pamela said:

I generally only like to views films I've seen and enjoyed previously...thus I won't squander 90 minutes or so on something that is not really worth my time...though that can present a problem when it comes to seeing new things.

This movie isn't for you.
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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:53 PM, hazwoper said:

Huh?! How did you get that from their AFD????

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:54 PM, rgwp96 said:

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

Oh I see now

Thanks

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:54 PM, rgwp96 said:

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

 

 

I see 33 at 96 at KNYC on the 0Z Euro with 850`s at Minus 2 . That`s well above freezing ?

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:57 PM, PB GFI said:
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:54 PM, rgwp96 said:

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

I see 33 at 96 at KNYC on the 0Z Euro with 850`s at Minus 2 . That`s well above freezing ?

That's what's puzzling . I don't have surface soundings for the euro . And for some reason I can't get plymouth sounding page to show anything but blank pages for the other models

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:52 PM, PB GFI said:

You are in a bad spot for this one bud IMO. I might be too .

Thats the way i see it! Some good tidbits to take from this though, we're having coastals already this season, producing a notable storm w/o blocking AND biggest for me, the pattern going into winter looks even better for more cold and snow opportunities with the blocking and weak el nino. Hard to be sour looking at what we may get come end of december and into january and february paul

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 1:59 PM, rgwp96 said:

That's what's puzzling . I don't have surface soundings for the euro . And for some reason I can't get plymouth sounding page to show anything but blank pages for the other models

At 102 its 35 and Minus 1 at 850 ( And I would not hang my hat on the surface rising on a NE wind ) with a center from OBX to CC deepening 15 mb in 12 hours . Again its marginal but not " WELL ABOVE FREEZING "  To be fair the warm punch is at 700 MB . Not the surface . So my disagreement may be in the language and not the end result . \

Especially from the city E.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted
  On 11/23/2014 at 12:47 PM, bluewave said:

Coastal sections want this closer to 70W than 72W like the Euro has.

 

DT freebie

 

attachicon.gif10805553_779198732127387_1525288237034020097_n.jpg

 

This snowfall map looks more accurate for the 0z Euro. 700mb temps were +2C and +3C for NYC and coast by 0z Thursday. There would more mixing or poor snow growth.

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