EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is a 10-12 hour event for DC.....but setup looks pristine...as Wes said...the upper levels support a wetter solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is a 10-12 hour event for DC.....but setup looks pristine...as Wes said...the upper levels support a wetter solution It'll get there. GFS slow fold as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It'll get there. GFS slow fold as usual. it got there pretty quickly...we're in good shape for an event...for the GFS to fully phase and go negative is a big step given its progressive bias..Euro will be a pasting probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 it got there pretty quickly...we're in good shape for an event...for the GFS to fully phase and go negative is a big step given its progressive bias..Euro will be a pasting probably I can only imagine. Finally my favorite time of the year. Lack of sleep from model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I can only imagine. Finally my favorite time of the year. Lack of sleep from model watching. the euro is so locked in it is has nowhere to go but trend worse...hopefully it just holds even if it is drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the euro is so locked in it is has nowhere to go but trend worse...hopefully it just holds even if it is drier Me too. Guess my travel plans maybe canceled. Not driving Wednesday in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Bizarro GFS (xbox) is probably OTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is wetter. Did anyone else think it's also notably faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm one more EURO run away from all chips in. Seriously though--how close are we to locking this up? So goes travel plans with this Thanksgiving treat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It'll get there. GFS slow fold as usual. The GFS did pretty well last year. The Euro has promised quite a few snowstorms the past couple of years that it didn't come close on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 UK is west of GFS and 6 hours slower. Nice to have another major model on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Interesting that we're within 100 hours and the Euro has shown two hits in a row. How often does it completely sh** the bed within 100 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 UK is west of GFS and 6 hours slower. Nice to have another major model on board. The UK still exist? Where does one view this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 UK is west of GFS and 6 hours slower. Nice to have another major model on board. Plus the UKMET is actually a legitimate model now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS did pretty well last year. The Euro has promised quite a few snowstorms the past couple of years that it didn't come close on. on a couple of events...it did well on the 12/8 event I believe...and it caught on late but was more consistent toward the end on the 1/21 event...otherwise the euro bludgeoned it most of the time...I think it is getting upgrades soon...it is a valuable model as part of a suite, but it is not a good model for coastal winter storms at all....and unfortunately, that is how we judge it...not by verification scores...anyway, curious if the canadian catches on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The UK still exist? Where does one view this model? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 on a couple of events...it did well on the 12/8 event I believe...and it caught on late but was more consistent toward the end on the 1/21 event...otherwise the euro bludgeoned it most of the time...I think it is getting upgrades soon...it is a valuable model as part of a suite, but it is not a good model for coastal winter storms at all....and unfortunately, that is how we judge it...not by verification scores...anyway, curious if the canadian catches on XBOX not even close. If the euro is more right than it, I am scared of it taking over for current GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GFS did pretty well last year. The Euro has promised quite a few snowstorms the past couple of years that it didn't come close on. Gfs is good with NS in the mid range. Euro can be amp happy with those. Euro is really good with miller A's. It can also be amp happy with those but gets the track right first and sticks to it. I'm with matt. The gfs looked great and the euro will likely be a similar version of 12z. It's a legit threat. We can dissect surface and qpf now for the most part. We'll need rates near the cities. No way around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It is wetter. Did anyone else think it's also notably faster? It came in earlier...everything was pushed up by like 5-6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seems like euro dominated southern stream systems while the gfs did better with northern stream dominated systems last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Para GFS consistency concerns me, but considering models are almost unanimously wet without it is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Para GFS consistency concerns me, but considering models are almost unanimously wet without it is a good sign. New model years are prone to recalls. I'm not worried at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 XBOX not even close. If the euro is more right than it, I am scared of it taking over for current GFS. Is that the plan?...Para will become the main operational GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is that the plan?...Para will become the main operational GFS? From what i understand on Dec 17th it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-46gfs.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 From what i understand on Dec 17th it will. I bet they'd consider pushing the date back if the op catching on to the Euro solution before the para verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The UK being west is a good thing to hear. Didn't someone post at 12z that it was east of the gfs at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 From what i understand on Dec 17th it will. ahh..I read that..didn't realize the parallel was it....I think it has been pushed back to 1/7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Canadian is wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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