WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The 18z ens give only a little hope. In better news the 18z Euro looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Figures... the one time I have people traveling to come here for Thanksgiving it would snow. I'm hoping this fails, but it probably won't. As I said all along, we're way overdue for accumulating snow in Nov. (at least at BWI). :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We had 1 miller A last year. And the gfs didn't figure it out until it was on top of us. Euro and ens were pretty steady overall from d4 on in. And here we are... Euro is really good at miller A's. From tomorrow night on I don't expect many big jumps. Next couple op runs could mess with us. Of course I want the gfs/gefs to look the same but it's an easy choice to pick between the 2 in this specific setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We had 1 miller A last year. And the gfs didn't figure it out until it was on top of us. Euro and ens were pretty steady overall from d4 on in. And here we are... Euro is really good at miller A's. From tomorrow night on I don't expect many big jumps. Next couple op runs could mess with us. Of course I want the gfs/gefs to look the same but it's an easy choice to pick between the 2 in this specific setup I remember that one clearly. The GFS had the track right, but lacked any QPF whatsoever until the snow was actually falling. Quite irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I love seeing 100+ users reading a disco thread. Winter has come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We had 1 miller A last year. And the gfs didn't figure it out until it was on top of us. Euro and ens were pretty steady overall from d4 on in. And here we are... Euro is really good at miller A's. From tomorrow night on I don't expect many big jumps. Next couple op runs could mess with us. Of course I want the gfs/gefs to look the same but it's an easy choice to pick between the 2 in this specific setup Was just mentioning this to someone earlier. I'm with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 OK, so if this fails, we put it on Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No 50/50 low would definitely argue against a widespread 10+". However there is a strong ridge centered NE of Bermuda. This may mean an H5 low can close off in the southeast and flatten back into an open wave over New England like 1/25/2000. However, I strongly doubt it given the lack of negative height Anomalies off the southeast coast this time. Best hope is for a 4-8" overrunning event, and I'll consider 3" an over performer given the iffy surface temps and the possible OTS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No 50/50 low would definitely argue against a widespread 10+". However there is a strong ridge centered NE of Bermuda. This may mean an H5 low can close off in the southeast and flatten back into an open wave over New England like 1/25/2000. However, I strongly doubt it given the lack of negative height Anomalies off the southeast coast this time. Best hope is for a 4-8" overrunning event, and I'll consider 3" an over performer given the iffy surface temps and the possible OTS track. man I'm glad that monkey is off my back with you mentioning that storm because I was thinking the same thing but feared reprisals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 man I'm glad that monkey is off my back with you mentioning that storm because I was thinking the same thing but feared reprisalsSo funny I used that storm earlier today with a friend when looking at the euro. Said that one run reminded me a little of that storm. Never would have put it in here though for fear if the angry towns folk with pitch forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 man I'm glad that monkey is off my back with you mentioning that storm because I was thinking the same thing but feared reprisals I figured I might as well discount it before someone else mentions it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Heavy snow at 33 degrees in late November would pile up. The sun is totally wimpy after about 4:00 PM. Is 33 degrees in late November somehow different than in February? I would think it is even more conducive to snow in November... The sun angle on Wednesday is the same as on January 16th. The reason it doesn't usually snow in November is because our average highs are in the 50s and 60s (It is 54 in DC on Wednesday), and wavelengths are longer and the atmosphere is not as dynamic. Given climo, buying into a dynamic phased solution with a low to our northwest is kind of hard....if it does snow and snow hard, places that are 33-34 will do fine, especially after dark. We used to get some November snow here and there. Maybe we are due. We definitely have an advantage over 3/6/13 in terms of sun angle, boundary layer, and even overall cold air...there is some receding HP to our north/northeast and a weak CAD signature.....it might still be in the upper 30s in the morning...could be rain initially for the coastal plain and then change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'll be honest. I checked the 21z SREF 500 vort for 87 hours. Let the 2014-2015 winter officially begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I figured I might as well discount it before someone else mentions it. there's a link to the radar loop for that storm at this link: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ some similarities when comparing Euro precip at Wunderground and that loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 there's a link to the radar loop for that storm at this link: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ some similarities when comparing Euro precip at Wunderground and that loop as much as we overuse it, it isn't the worst analog....other than it being January of course, biggest difference was 1/25/00 had an east based -NAO block...we will have a +NAO on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 there's a link to the radar loop for that storm at this link: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ some similarities when comparing Euro precip at Wunderground and that loop Yeah the southern stream just doesn't close off over the Georgia coast this time. If we do get a closed low it will have to be much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 as much as we overuse it, it isn't the worst analog....other than it being January of course, biggest difference was 1/25/00 had an east based -NAO block...we will have a +NAO on Wednesday I am gathering its been a while since we have had a +NAO snowstorm around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am gathering its been a while since we have had a +NAO snowstorm around here Didn't we have a bunch of them last winter? I remember 3/1/09 being a +NAO storm, too...brought a great early-morning band with the ULL overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm just starting to recall how much I hate the void between the 18Z GFS and the 00z runs..perilous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am gathering its been a while since we have had a +NAO snowstorm around here we had a +NAO last winter from like mid January to April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just gunna mention it since I know everyone has looked at it and won't comment....yes, the NAM went from being "on track" for a favorable inland solution at 18Z to jumping ship and keeping things off shore on the 0Z run no further discussion needed on the NAM at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just gunna mention it since I know everyone has looked at it and won't comment....yes, the NAM went from being "on track" for a favorable inland solution at 18Z to jumping ship and keeping things off shore on the 0Z run no further discussion needed on the NAM at this time That's probably a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just gunna mention it since I know everyone has looked at it and won't comment....yes, the NAM went from being "on track" for a favorable inland solution at 18Z to jumping ship and keeping things off shore on the 0Z run no further discussion needed on the NAM at this time ever fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 fyp I lost it when I seen the edit. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 fyp lol that'll be tough to do over a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I looked at the NAM, saw it went to an OTS solution, and felt relieved that it was the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No 50/50 low would definitely argue against a widespread 10+". However there is a strong ridge centered NE of Bermuda. This may mean an H5 low can close off in the southeast and flatten back into an open wave over New England like 1/25/2000. However, I strongly doubt it given the lack of negative height Anomalies off the southeast coast this time. Best hope is for a 4-8" overrunning event, and I'll consider 3" an over performer given the iffy surface temps and the possible OTS track. Let's just hope there aren't any thunderstorms robbing the moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks like it is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS looks good...that lakes low seems to have disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 about 0.45" for DCA so slightly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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