CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Heavy snow at 33 degrees in late November would pile up. The sun is totally wimpy after about 4:00 PM. Is 33 degrees in late November somehow different than in February? I would think it is even more conducive to snow in November... Agree. If the column is cold and its just the boundary layer, and we get good rates, the sun angle is not an issue. Nor is a day or 2 in the 60s as far as the ground being too warm. Way overblown. See Denver. where its in the 50s and 60s for weeks sometimes prior to a snowstorm. The issue would be not getting good rates and or the surface temps stubbornly hanging around 35-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's always a fun time up here. Glad you can join us. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agree. If the column is cold and its just the boundary layer, and we get good rates, the sun angle is not an issue. Nor is a day or 2 in the 60s as far as the ground being too warm. Way overblown. See Denver. where its in the 50s and 60s for weeks sometimes prior to a snowstorm. The issue would be not getting good rates and or the surface temps stubbornly hanging around 35-36. Very good point. I've seen Denver have highs in the mid 70's one day prior to a big snow event. If they can do it, we can do it (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Not this again...WE will be fine. It always works out for US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The March storms trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Temps will also be kinda warm the day before. What kind of an effect will that have? It certainly isn't ideal. We are heading into this storm immidiately following a torch. We do live in the Subtropics after all, so it is never easy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If I can get 20" in march I can get a foot 4 days before December. Rockville is a snow town now. 11 out of 10 Rockville weenies agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Temps will also be kinda warm the day before. What kind of an effect will that have? NONE. If the entire column is cold and it snows hard it will stick, even if surface temps are slightly above freezing. As Phineas said,the sun angle in late Nov is wimpy, and the if the the snow falls at a rate faster than it can melt, it will accumulate. I would just worry about temps hanging in the mid 30s with crappy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I have zero doubts that when the 7" of snow in 6 hours that the euro shows verifies that snowplows will be required to clear the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 NONE. If the entire column s cold and it snows hard it will stick, even if temps are slightly above freezing. As Phineas said,the sun angle in late Nov is wimpy, and the if the the snow falls at a rate faster than it can melt, it will accumulate. I would just worry about temps hanging in the mid 30s with crappy rates. Is "NONE" really the right answer? I think if you ask anyone in here they would prefer it to be 10 degrees the day before a snowstorm instead of 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Is "NONE" really the right answer? I think if you ask anyone in here they would prefer it to be 10 degrees the day before a snowstorm instead of 50. Yes, it is the right answer. It might make a difference for the streets, but it will make no difference for the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Warmth the day before certainly matters....... .....for about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Is "NONE" really the right answer? I think if you ask anyone in here they would prefer it to be 10 degrees the day before a snowstorm instead of 50. The 2 or 3 mild days prior warming the ground surface wont be what makes or breaks this event. Of course the lack of a cold air mass is a concern. But those are 2 different issues. The lack of cold in the lowest levels during the event is always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What time does the 18z Euro come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Most of the time when we get screwed in cases like this we have a nasty warm nose or it is only light precip for most of the storm. I guess I could get heavy downpours at 33 degrees with the entire rest of the column safely below freezing after sundown in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Most of the time when we get screwed in cases like this we have a nasty warm nose or it is only light precip for most of the storm. I guess I could get heavy downpours at 33 degrees with the entire rest of the column safely below freezing after sundown in late November. Yeah and we could land an unmanned spacecraft on a comet...err Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What time does the 18z Euro come in? 3 or 4 more drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I want snow. Pretty please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 What time does the 18z Euro come in? You mean the 18z GFS esembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There 2 big hits on the GFS ensembles, 1-2 scrapers, and then the rest a bit too far East. P007 pleaase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You mean the 18z GFS esembles? They look a little worse than 12z, at least individually, to me at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 So it's going to be cold/dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 So it's going to be cold/dry? No. Warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 They look a little worse than 12z, at least individually, to me at the surface. Its the 18z GFS.. wonky. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Its the 18z GFS.. wonky. Toss Well, the Op is a bit better. Edit...actually, the 18z 500mb GEFS mean looks quite a bit better than the 12z mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Soon we will be watching the 84hr NAM h5/SLP chart prob by 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Soon we will be watching the 84hr NAM h5/SLP chart prob by 06z run Wheres Ji? Whats the JMA look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 my guess is most DOTs will start brining the roads tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wheres Ji? Whats the JMA look like? Isn't he out canceling winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 my guess is most DOTs will start brining the roads tomorrow After the Euro I dashed out for bread and tp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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