Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Then I don't think it was the stormvista one as it kept the accumulating snow west of the city. SV gives DC ~3", but all falls in a 3 hour period when temps cooperate....We know the drill...west would do well, and we would do ok, and see some pics of decks and dogs...still, a 2" grass and deck storm for us would be pretty neat in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 All true, The euro would give us snow albeit probably at 34 degrees for most of the storm. At this time range none of it matters much though I wish our elevation was 1000 ft. ha yes...probably stick and melt during lulls...I'd like to measure something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 On February 3rd (5th?) last season, it was only 34F and rates weren't impressive and I still managed to get half an inch on the grass. I know it's a completely different scenario, but snow can accumulate at 34F (35F is probably pushing it). Throw in some 1-2"/hr rates and we're in business lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll be at my sister's house outside of Reisterstown Wed and Thurs at about 750 feet, so if a Euro-ish solution verifies I will be outside sledding with the kids. If the storm is weaker or tracks further east, I will just stay inside and drink more and play video games. Oh and watch football and get fat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Been in South Carolina since Thursday, so it would suck to miss a decent snow, but that would make it two years in a row missing a storm. That said, I really don't think I have anything to worry about. Far more likely to be a cold rain ending in slop than a significant accumulating snowfall. No, I don't think rain ending as slop as more likely. I think the storm being OTS is the more likely scenario. I think a predominant rain storm is a low likelihood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll be at my sister's house outside of Reisterstown Wed and Thurs at about 750 feet, so if a Euro-ish solution verifies I will be outside sledding with the kids. If the storm is weaker or tracks further east, I will just stay inside and drink more and play video games. Oh and watch football and get fat. yeah Reisterstown does pretty well in the snow dept they are often snow when I turn over or shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 yeah Reisterstown does pretty well in the snow dept they are often snow when I turn over or shortly after. I lived in Carroll county for 10 years so I know how it rolls there wrt snow lol. Nice being up on that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Mount Holly a bit bullish- going rain/snow Wed then snow likely for Wed night here...although I wont be here so I dont really care. Still think it will be more of a rain event for all of the coastal plain based on the pattern (lack of true cold air mass) and the current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Happy hour time! Got a Sam Winter Lager in the fridge with my name on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 not with such marginal temps. thump or bust. U must be new to the area.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GFS is about 0.40" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Happy hour time! Got a Sam Winter Lager in the fridge with my name on it. Ive got a couple Southern Tier Beers(Pumking and Warlock) but trying to save those for Turkey day. So red wine it is tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's a little sliver of 6+" in E MD on stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Happy hour delivers on the Atari. Pretty similar to 12z version. Precip and low a touch farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Overall slightly stronger in SLP and a smudge warmer compared to 12z GFS, I don't see a noticeable shift in position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There's a little sliver of 6+" in E MD on stormvista Probably right over my house. Watch the GFS verify when I dont want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The parallel gfs still leaves us high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Xbox is a touch further east if anything. Interesting test for Xbox GFS this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Overall slightly stronger in SLP and a smudge warmer compared to 12z GFS, I don't see a noticeable shift in position. Looks very similar to 12z to me. maybe a tad colder 850s? Surface looks about the same but I haven't done a detailed comparison. Still warm at the start, and approaching freezing towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GFS is about 0.40" for DCA If it's 500h vort track is right, I'd think that might be low. Of course the parallel is still a miss so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll jump in and say, as a resident of the extreme southern fringe of the "Mid-Atlantic" (southeastern corner of Virginia), I honestly don't care if anything sticks. Even seeing flakes fly in November is a plus, since it almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Mount Holly seems fairly bullish on this storm..... AFD- ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OURFORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOMEA SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOWAND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONEOF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULDBEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I still think we need to get the track right before we start analyzing thermal profiles, especially this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Mount Holly seems fairly bullish on this storm..... AFD- ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. Heavy snow at 33 degrees in late November would pile up. The sun is totally wimpy after about 4:00 PM. Is 33 degrees in late November somehow different than in February? I would think it is even more conducive to snow in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 These are interesting solutions...hope it's a fun week of tracking whatever potential this thing has. Knowing the obstacles in front of us....can some of the region overcome?? Didn't say we on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Heavy snow at 33 degrees in late November would pile up. The sun is totally wimpy after about 4:00 PM. Is 33 degrees in late November somehow different than in February? I would think it is even more conducive to snow in November... Temps will also be kinda warm the day before. What kind of an effect will that have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I just enjoyed a little over 2" from the storm last week. Snow fell between 33-34 starting late afternoon. It can stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll be at my sister's house outside of Reisterstown Wed and Thurs at about 750 feet, so if a Euro-ish solution verifies I will be outside sledding with the kids. If the storm is weaker or tracks further east, I will just stay inside and drink more and play video games. Oh and watch football and get fat. It's always a fun time up here. Glad you can join us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Temps will also be kinda warm the day before. What kind of an effect will that have? Not this again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'll be at my sister's house outside of Reisterstown Wed and Thurs at about 750 feet, so if a Euro-ish solution verifies I will be outside sledding with the kids. If the storm is weaker or tracks further east, I will just stay inside and drink more and play video games. Oh and watch football and get fat. It's always a fun time up here. Glad you can join us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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