Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro ripped .7 up and down 95 from 12-18z. I'm not sold on an I95 non-event like so many. Yes, it could easily happen. But there's more than a slim chance. You can't predict qpf maxes and rates with 20 mile accuracy until its happening. I think we all have experienced rain to snow storms with heavy rates, throw down 4-6 inches without blinking an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro ripped .7 up and down 95 from 12-18z. I'm not sold on an I95 non-event like so many. Yes, it could easily happen. But there's more than a slim chance. You can't predict qpf maxes and rates with 20 mile accuracy until its happening. I know it's the NAM, but I'm glad to see some kind of return to a wetter and heavier precip solution. Things were looking a bit more dubious earlier, or so it seemed. Let's hope the globals keep that going. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Charleston WV went from basically nothing to 3/4" of precip...that's a big move Grain of Salt.......honestly just hoping for enough to go sledding with my nieces and nephews in NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HI RES looks to be ripping snow near 95 at 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 HI RES looks to be ripping snow near 95 at 15Z Could you please post an image? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Could you please post an image? Thank you. On weather bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4k NAM brings in precip to DC at 9z. It looks like it changes over shortly after 15z. By then, about 0.7" has fallen. Its very warm at the surface though (mid 40s to start falling to 37 by 15z). Sim radar/precip type suggest switch back over to rain by 21z for almost the whole area, likely because the precip rates let up. Looks like 1"+ for DC, but maybe Bob or Eastern can chime in - it looks warm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hi Res not as good as regular NAM. Ends faster and sharp cut off. central pa even north of HGR gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Euro ripped .7 up and down 95 from 12-18z. I'm not sold on an I95 non-event like so many. Yes, it could easily happen. But there's more than a slim chance. You can't predict qpf maxes and rates with 20 mile accuracy until its happening. glad i'm not the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DCA switches over around 14z I think... 15z is already a snow sounding The surface nver gets below 35 until after 18Z so the sounding looks like snow but.....The algorithm on the stormvista site keeps dca right on the rain snow line at 18Z for what that is worth. If I lived in MRB or even JYO I'd be excited but not so much in DC. Maybe the northwest side of the city can get a couple of inches but I bet DCA doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM has the Eastern panhandle of WV at 40 degrees at 09Z Wed. By 10Z, the freezing level has dropped to 950mb; by 11Z it's down to 975mb, and at 12Z the surface is 32.5 degrees. First model I have seen with that kind of rapid cooling here. Wish it were right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is uber-wet. But I'm still riding a blend of 99% Euro/1% Euro ensembles.^DT2 NAM time is the worst time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 00z Hi-Res NAM WeenieBell snow maps actually look reasonable. It shows about 1" of snow at DCA, 1" at BWI, and 4" at IAD. Generally 1" for I-95, then NW and NE of Baltimore 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ^DT2 NAM time is the worst time. I usually get real annoyed when DT follows the Euro like a donkey with a carrot, but it's hard to argue with its consistency on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The nam has proven time and time again that it can't figure out developing miller A's until they actually develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The nam has proven time and time again that it can't figure out developing miller A's until they actually develop. Crazy differences in it and the HiRes. Hopefully it does foretell of a wetter trend of the other big models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z RGEM looks fine through 36 - 1006mb L down by Wilmington NC 39 - 1005mb L east of Norfolk by 100 miles or so 42 - directly east of Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is there a reason why suddenly it seems a bunch of models are dumping on Philly to Boston and we are getting screwed? I figured we would all have the same temps/precip like most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is there a reason why suddenly it seems a bunch of models are dumping on Philly to Boston and we are getting screwed? I figured we would all have the same temps/precip like most storms. they have the same surface temp issues that we do (those cities along and east of I95 that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Going to have to wait a few mins to be sure if its snow... but RGEM has rakage at 12z to 18z for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z RGEM looks fine through 36 - 1006mb L down by Wilmington NC 39 - 1005mb L east of Norfolk by 100 miles or so 42 - directly east of Ocean City actually, surprised that RGEM looks colder than 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z RGEM looks fine through 36 - 1006mb L down by Wilmington NC 39 - 1005mb L east of Norfolk by 100 miles or so 42 - directly east of Ocean City Their precip-type maps are usually pretty accurate from what I recall. Curious what they show when they're out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 33mm total precip for DCA per meteogram... looks like 17mm snow? That would be about 0.7" snow at DCA verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Their precip-type maps are usually pretty accurate from what I recall. Curious what they show when they're out. http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Let me be the first to say the RGEM went the NAM's way in terms of getting snow here earlier, and the RGEM is actually one of the coldest models on its latest run that we've seen. In weenie terms, its a crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 33mm total precip for DCA per meteogram... looks like 17mm snow? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM has about .65 in the form of snow it looks like for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DCA .67" QPF snow per 00z RGEM meteogram (17mm used to calculate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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