WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IIRC, 3/6/13 had skew-t's that were basically isothermal at 0C from about 875 down the surface with the surface a bit warmer. Skew-t's for this look colder (by 1-2C) throughout that layer. Anyone save those from 3/6/13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Since 3/6/13 is being thrown around...what is the RGM (think that's the letters) showing....it absolutely nailed the 3/6 forecast. It was animated on the weather channel the night before. It may be a really short range model, IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can't say I am overly excited about this storm at this point but I will appreciate whatever falls. Heck I liked 3/6/13 and that was mostly snow TV during the daylight hours. Big difference is that 3/6/2013 had very high (though perhaps unrealistic in hindsight) expectations. So it was a huge let-down, plus all the gov't and other closures looked really bad to be honest, from an optical standpoint. And that was the last legitimate shot we had in a winter that was crappy (make that the 2nd or 3rd in a row that sucked), so it was a pretty bitter pill to swallow. This event, it's the beginning of the season, still late November, and I don't think there are high expectations. Not the same sense of "desperation" like March 2013. So even if we just get some snow TV or a slush coating in most areas, it won't be as upsetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why do we keep talking about 3/6/13? Isn't the closest analog still 12/5/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can't say I am overly excited about this storm at this point but I will appreciate whatever falls. Heck I liked 3/6/13 and that was mostly snow TV during the daylight hours. I felt way more excited about this 12 hours ago. Seems today the trend has been a weaker system, less amped and thus less dynamics and precip in our area. The euro cutting back on precip in our area from 1.2 to about .8 was a red flag. The UK was still a nice amped solution and so was the euro control run, and the GGEM was a nice hit, but some of the other guidance would be a pretty random 3-4" type storm in this area. Still time for this to turn around. I wouldnt worry much about the GFS, it has issues with precip on the NW edge but I don't want to see any more east movement or weakening from the other guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitaminmawc Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I like this map hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why do we keep talking about 3/6/13? Isn't the closest analog still 12/9/09? Short memories.. heartache. Good recipe. I'd still that 500 low any day though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IIRC, 3/6/13 had skew-t's that were basically isothermal at 0C from about 875 down the surface with the surface a bit warmer. Skew-t's for this look colder (by 1-2C) throughout that layer. Anyone save those from 3/6/13? I just looked back through the last model thread before the event. I found a saved IAD sounding but it wasn't a good comparison for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why do we keep talking about 3/6/13? Isn't the closest analog still 12/9/09? Neither is really the best, but I hear you and kind of agree. Part of that is psychological, as I said a bit above, March 2013 was almost desperation after 2+ winters of futility and we failed big time after a fair amount of hype. Dec. 2009 is perhaps more apt given the time of year is similar, and we're not looking at the end of the season through the lens of a long period of futility before that. I can see similar gradients of snow happening in this event as we saw 12/5/2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why do we keep talking about 3/6/13? Isn't the closest analog still 12/9/09? 12/5/09?? 12/9/09 was about 2 hours of snow out here and then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Short memories.. heartache. Good recipe. I'd still that 500 low any day though lol. I agree. If it were a month later, things might be looking a bit different thermally with that set-up. And it probably wouldn't be 75 degrees today in the parallel universe of being a month from now (then again....well...it was last year!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IIRC, 3/6/13 had skew-t's that were basically isothermal at 0C from about 875 down the surface with the surface a bit warmer. Skew-t's for this look colder (by 1-2C) throughout that layer. Anyone save those from 3/6/13? At least we had a bit of a saturated snow growth layer with that one. That H5 still seems odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12/5/09?? 12/9/09 was about 2 hours of snow out here and then rain I didn't notice 12/9/2009 at first...but I take that as a typo and that he meant 12/5/2009?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM rolling...??? (or roiling, as the case may be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 My main complaint about 3/6/13, other than the fact that it was a pretty bad bust, was that it was so sloppy, the precip couldn't stay in the form of snow, and there were a lot of spots (including trees) where it didn't stick. I'd be totally fine with a slightly colder 3/6/13 even with the same 3" of snow... as long as it accumulates like a normal snowstorm and isn't just a sloppy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Big difference is that 3/6/2013 had very high (though perhaps unrealistic in hindsight) expectations. So it was a huge let-down, plus all the gov't and other closures looked really bad to be honest, from an optical standpoint. And that was the last legitimate shot we had in a winter that was crappy (make that the 2nd or 3rd in a row that sucked), so it was a pretty bitter pill to swallow. This event, it's the beginning of the season, still late November, and I don't think there are high expectations. Not the same sense of "desperation" like March 2013. So even if we just get some snow TV or a slush coating in most areas, it won't be as upsetting. yeah, you brought up some good points about the psycho differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 yeah, you brought up some good points about the psycho differences. Freudian slip there?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 At least we had a bit of a saturated snow growth layer with that one. That H5 still seems odd to me. Yeah, that's not what I'm thinking of, although maybe IAD was different then east of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM just a smidge deeper, perhaps a tad slower? Maybe the east trend stops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM just a smidge deeper, perhaps a tad slower? Maybe the east trend stops? A bit slower would be better overall, rather than racing past, I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man. The NAM is wet but toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z NAM out to 32... 1010 L barely off SC/NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, that's not what I'm thinking of, although maybe IAD was different then east of the Potomac. Whats concerning you?.. The near 0°C isothermal low levels? Lack of depth of snow growth layer? Lack of saturation in snow growth layer? Omega not aligning with time and height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man. The NAM is wet but toasty. Not too much warmer IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Precip pretty far west in southern va/wva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here comes that insanely wet NAM run we all knew would eventually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's the CWG's live blog: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/live-blogging-the-models-for-wednesdays-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IAD prob mixing at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is EPAWA reliable? How are their snow totals this high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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