CAPE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm loving all the snow maps and jackpot zones over my house You aren't in Manchester. No jackpot for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 MOS numbers are pretty poor for the whole DC/Dulles area if you want a good snow tho maybe still too much climo in them. This early you really do want some great dynamics jacking things up and we're not quite there as is it would seem. I think in theory this one has a better cold source than Snowquester. Edges of the season are always going to heavily favor elevation and 2 degrees can be the diff between nice grass accum and total white rain.. so in that sense it's similar to that storm, and a lot of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 MOS numbers are pretty poor for the whole DC/Dulles area if you want a good snow tho maybe still too much climo in them. This early you really do want some great dynamics jacking things up and we're not quite there as is it would seem. I think in theory this one has a better cold source than Snowquester. Edges of the season are always going to heavily favor elevation and 2 degrees can be the diff between nice grass accum and total white rain.. so in that sense it's similar to that storm, and a lot of others. However result may still be this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Here's my first go at it:20141126_MAsnow_initial.png Why even put out a map if you have low confidence? People that earn a living in the weather industry should be required to take a firmer stand, or wait until they have a confident assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 However result may still be this. He's certainly not coming here this time lol. Perhaps expectations for that storm were unrealistic. A forecast for 10" in the city the night before definitely isn't where we stand now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 He's certainly not coming here this time lol. Perhaps expectations for that storm were unrealistic. A forecast for 10" in the city the night before definitely isn't where we stand now. Think LWX is going basically no snow in DC cause of bad memories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You aren't in Manchester. No jackpot for you. This is one of the few times it pays to live in a "suburb of Parkton". The valley lifestyle below 1000ft is so overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Maue added these (NWS forecasts) to WxBell... handy. Surprisingly not too messed up on a lot of CWA boundaries too. I miss NW CT a little. My gut feeling for this area too. Not really feeling like much more than 4 or 5 tops here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It may not be the exact setup as March 2013 but I think the result will be close Could easily go down that way. Typical burbs that struggle will likely struggle (mine included) unless the dynamics and a hard hit and run scenario plays out. Euro likes that 12-18z window for a possible hard hit and run. Moderate snow won't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I figure if it does actually snow hard I could get 3-4 inches but I think it is equally likely I get drizzle for a few hours and have to look at pictures of some random town in VA that "expected nothing" and got a surprise 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to look a bit like the March 5-6, 2013 event. BL is too marginal and fighting warmer ground although sun angle more favorable now. Snow accumulation gradient will likely be very tight with solid accumulation over higher elevations only. Min and Max potentials are very wide due to the rain/snow line uncertainty. It is tough to pick up good accumulations in lower elevations when the pre-conditions are not favorable...is relying on Dynamic and wet bulb cooling, rates etc. it's a more progressive system as well. Likely to see steadiest precip in one big blast over a 6 hour period or so. I wouldn't get excited about this one unless you are along the mason Dixon line or west of the Blue Ridge. I think all areas will change to snow but stickage will be tough within the Beltway. The 18Z GFS looks unfavorable for much snow accumulation below 1000 ft. It doesn't seem that boundary layer temperatures will favor snow until late in the storm when the 700 mb levels will be drying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 18Z GFS looks unfavorable for much snow accumulation below 1000 ft. It doesn't seem that boundary layer temperatures will favor snow until late in the storm when the 700 mb levels will be drying out. Don't agree. If the GFS verifies, accumulations would be elevation and rate dependent, but the profile would support snow fairly early on. This is the 12z Wednesday skew-t from the north side of DC. Wet-bulb zero is around 975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 18Z GFS looks unfavorable for much snow accumulation below 1000 ft. It doesn't seem that boundary layer temperatures will favor snow until late in the storm when the 700 mb levels will be drying out. Thanks, been waiting for some 18Z GFS analysis for about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 21Z SREF are a bit east. 1" line right through DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks lik 21z SREFs cut back QPF some... 1" line just west of DCA, though 0.5" line is in E WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On twitter from ABC7, shows radar at 5 pm on Wednesday. Unexpected dry slot or something? Or far east track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 21Z SREF are a bit east. 1" line right through DC Would be nice if a bit east means a bit colder..suppose not that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, just shifted E, probably a result of having less crazy robust members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref looks a bit colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On twitter from ABC7, shows radar at 5 pm on Wednesday. Unexpected dry slot or something? Or far east track? u wut m8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On twitter from ABC7, shows radar at 5 pm on Wedn esday. Unexpected dry slot or something? Or far east track? Over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On twitter from ABC7, shows radar at 5 pm on Wednesday. Unexpected dry slot or something? Or far east track? Those things are decent at best... I wouldn't lose any sleep over what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On twitter from ABC7, shows radar at 5 pm on Wednesday. Unexpected dry slot or something? Or far east track? That's from their "in-house model" so probably not too reliable. It doesn't even have any widespread precip up in central NJ at 5pm, which seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref looks a bit colder at the surface. I thought so as well... but was waiting to see if anyone else thought that/saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I would take half the precip of the SREF for temps two degrees colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks lik 21z SREFs cut back QPF some... 1" line just west of DCA, though 0.5" line is in E WV Some of the bigger qpf members at 15z had a lot of rain, so it's not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I figure if it does actually snow hard I could get 3-4 inches but I think it is equally likely I get drizzle for a few hours and have to look at pictures of some random town in VA that "expected nothing" and got a surprise 7 inches. Just curious what your definition of a random town in VA is. Is it like Kingsville or Oakland in MD? Temps issues should be expected with a November storm. And like I say every year at this time. You have the right to choose what elevation you live at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can't say I am overly excited about this storm at this point but I will appreciate whatever falls. Heck I liked 3/6/13 and that was mostly snow TV during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I thought so as well... but was waiting to see if anyone else thought that/saw that Hard to say especially after a couple glasses of wine (haha!), but it does look a tad colder at 850mb. This is going by the NCEP MAG page, so fine details are perhaps not as clear. Surface, kind of hard to say, looks very similar to me, but I'm willing it to look slightly colder. Surface low looks more or less in the same place, though the 21Z SREF low appears more consolidated and a bit stronger compared to 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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