Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Haha exactly what I was thinkingI'm not the hugest fan they've failed plenty but no worse than the NAM at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You should tell that to the nws warning coordinator who posted it. For a marginal event like this I wouldn't trust it.... I think a few outrageously high plumes skew the mean upwards but it's depicting 6"+ for DCA and 10"+ for the burbs of Philly. I'd disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You should tell that to the nws warning coordinator who posted it. Unintentionally, I'm sure, that was a good bait job on your part. In all seriousness though, this was never going to be a good 95 and East storm. If folks would just accept that, they would avoid letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For a marginal event like this I wouldn't trust it.... I think a few outrageously high plumes skew the mean upwards but it's depicting 6"+ for DCA and 10"+ for the burbs of Philly. I'd disregard it.Climo says its hard to be more than 20 degrees below avg which is about what I need so I'm not super gung ho but there is clustering somewhat near the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For a marginal event like this I wouldn't trust it.... I think a few outrageously high plumes skew the mean upwards but it's depicting 6"+ for DCA and 10"+ for the burbs of Philly. I'd disregard it. That can happen, but in this case, the plumes are pretty equally distributed throughout the 0-16" range for BWI. Maybe biased a little high, but I threw out the 2 high and 2 low cases and ended up with about the same mean. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141124&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=39.029589044150214&mLON=-77.25164092407226&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You should tell that to the nws warning coordinator who posted it. Haha, yes I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mama2Many Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MDFREDERICK-CLARKE-LOUDOUN VAHAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY WV WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAYMORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ABOVE 1000 FEET. LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BELOW 1000 FEET. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...INCLUDING INTERSTATES 81...70...83...66 AND 64. THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS FOR WEDNESDAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW MAY CAUSE DOWNED TREES THAT LEAD TO ANENHANCED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hi-res NAM likes the juicy idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z NAM is a lot more interesting with the trailing vort on Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From the latest LWX disco: HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLYEARLY WEDNSESDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTTOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKSNORTHEAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ANDGULF OF MEXICO TO GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM.THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY ATTIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCHCOLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE THREATFOR SNOW. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLINGFROM THE WET-BULB EFFECT AND DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR ANY RAIN ORMIXED PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NEARTHE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGEMOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALLIN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OFSNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMAIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS RAIN...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESEAREAS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO THE COOLINGAFFECTS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVERCLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGRESS ABOVE FREEZING AND THISMAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO STICK. THE HIGHEST DEGREE OFUNCERTAINTY IS IN THESE AREAS SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATESTFORECASTS FOR UPDATES. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OFI-95...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FORSNOW TO MIX IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't know if this is the right place to post this, but I pulled this graphic from one of the Capital Weather Gang posts on the March 2013 snowquester. Notice how far offshore the Low trended 2 days before the event...something to keep an eye on if you want to compare. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/storm-chances-up-for-midweek-precipitation-type-still-a-pesky-question/2013/03/02/156ad67a-8363-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z nam appears to drop 7" in a perfect world for jyo....on grass at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z RGEM looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z RGEM looks fine to me I honestly don't know how you can tell with the etch-a-sketch maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't know if this is the right place to post this, but I pulled this graphic from one of the Capital Weather Gang posts on the March 2013 snowquester. Notice how far offshore the Low trended 2 days before the event...something to keep an eye on if you want to compare. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/storm-chances-up-for-midweek-precipitation-type-still-a-pesky-question/2013/03/02/156ad67a-8363-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_blog.html not sure there's much point to comparing the two other than the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I honestly don't know how you can tell with the etch-a-sketch maps. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18Z GFS is off to the races Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS looks good thru hr 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z RGEM is very good, a lot better than based off the B&W maps. For "Washington", they get like 7-8mm of Rain and then 18mm of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I honestly don't know how you can tell with the etch-a-sketch maps. 18z RGEM for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 not sure there's much point to comparing the two other than the temps. I only did because so many other people were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z RGEM for DCA Not bad. Were do you get those from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I only did because so many other people were. yeah i know a lot of ppl are but they aren't that similar other than being nervous about sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not bad. Were do you get those from? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=18&map=na&mod=gemreg〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS looks good thru hr 9. [joke]initialization was wack [\joke] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is gunna be wetter than 12z, and likely warmer as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 27 hr looks pretty similar maybe the northern stream energy is a little more stout but the southern vort is pretty much the same placement wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Climo says its hard to be more than 20 degrees below avg which is about what I need so I'm not super gung ho but there is clustering somewhat near the mean. But when you roll with what has just been handed us last week we were 25 below average in full sunshine. Sun is now prite time weak so get cloudy, low east of OC, decent high pressure(this is my main worry as to where does this set up, I think western great lakes or any points west will be tto far west to be effective-absent that I think we get our first taste of what is ahead this winter)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 gfs basically the same maybe a hair warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 39 phasing starts to occur but it is pretty similar comparing the 45 hr 5h panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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