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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal


Coach McGuirk

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it's a Miller A for the most part, albeit maybe not a classic one, so regardless of the month, it's always a struggle straddling the line between the heaviest precip w/o taint and a mix of some sort

obviously, the fact that we're talking end of Novie, it's more tenuous, but still doable so I'm in (just in case someone was wondering...lol)

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If it snows, accumulations would be highly elevation dependent most likely, as they usually are on the edges of the winter season.  Slowing this storm down by 12 hours would help advect in some colder air. 

 

yes....There is no cold air anywhere...the closest cold is over Wisconsin and Minnesota...that said there is no warm air either...40s down into Florida...

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Here's Jason's post on the system.  Just looked at the eruo stormvista snow algorithms from the euro.  They are the anti-wxBell version.  Proably more realistic and it looks like it doesn't allow snow to accumulate unless the surface is freezing.  Bob, to me the euro ensemble still were further east than I'd like for a storm.  The low pressure over the lakes would be an unusual set up for I95 to get much snow though the 1st Jan KU or 1987 had a similar pattern so it's not impossible but in November is pretty worrisome. 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/22/east-coast-storm-possible-wednesday-before-thanksgiving-snow-chance-for-d-c/

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yes....There is no cold air anywhere...the closest cold is over Wisconsin and Minnesota...that said there is no warm air either...40s down into Florida...

well its mid nov, not January so  im thinking it will be hard to get a real good snowstorm unless ur  from i81 west and north of mason Dixon.  just not the right time of year for a good snow storm in mid atl.

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Same here. Like I said earlier, having to rely on rates is a red flag. Sure, it can happen...I've seen big accumulations using rates/dynamic cooling...but it is a hard thing to do.

 

How else would we get the surface to cooperate in a setup like this?

 

it isn't the most hostile setup....it is a much better scenario than say 3/6/13....there is a weakish area of high pressure to our north/northeast.....and a somewhat classic wedge....no column issues....it would probably be 33-34 and snow for us.....

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If it snows, accumulations would be highly elevation dependent most likely, as they usually are on the edges of the winter season.  Slowing this storm down by 12 hours would help advect in some colder air. 

 

I think that is the most likely scenario if we get a euro type storm.  Anyway, it's something to follow. 

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it isn't the most hostile setup....it is a much better scenario than say 3/6/13....there is a weakish area of high pressure to our north/northeast.....and a somewhat classic wedge....no column issues....it would probably be 33-34 and snow for us.....

I think this is what we should hope for... if it sticks then its bonus

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Here's Jason's post on the system.  Just looked at the eruo stormvista snow algorithms from the euro.  They are the anti-wxBell version.  Proably more realistic and it looks like it doesn't allow snow to accumulate unless the surface is freezing.  Bob, to me the euro ensemble still were further east than I'd like for a storm.  The low pressure over the lakes would be an unusual set up for I95 to get much snow though the 1st Jan KU or 1987 had a similar pattern so it's not impossible but in November is pretty worrisome. 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/22/east-coast-storm-possible-wednesday-before-thanksgiving-snow-chance-for-d-c/

 

I was encouraged by the move west from last night but agree the mean is too far east to get overly excited. There were a good # of flush hits on the members compared to last night.

 

Never like LP anywhere near the lakes of course so that is always a flag for temps.  

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Been in South Carolina since Thursday, so it would suck to miss a decent snow, but that would make it two years in a row missing a storm.

That said, I really don't think I have anything to worry about. Far more likely to be a cold rain ending in slop than a significant accumulating snowfall.

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The Euro snow map DT posted on his FB page (stormvista?) looks much more realistic- illustrating the surface temp issues from the cities east. Of course with the WeatherBell maps, what they lack in accuracy they make up for with those vivid pretty colors.

 

SV map does a better job conveying the sfc temp issue, but it is still just a map using an algorithm that is limited by data intervals and makes some assumptions about what happens in between them......in our favor, sun angle isn't an issue, and we don't have to worry about a warm nose in the mid levels or a deep warm layer above the surface...950mb-975mb will be below freezing...

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SV map does a better job conveying the sfc temp issue, but it is still just a map using an algorithm that is limited by data intervals and makes some assumptions about what happens in between them......in our favor, sun angle isn't an issue, and we don't have to worry about a warm nose in the mid levels or a deep warm layer above the surface...950mb-975mb will be below freezing...

All true, The euro would give us snow albeit probably at 34 degrees for most of the storm.  At this time range none of it matters much though I wish our elevation was 1000 ft.

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