yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm not. Bad word choice... you are right... should of said I am hopeful instead of sure. Bob did get me to ante up a lil more when he said the ensembles were pretty good as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 True... but IF the Euro was right... I am sure rates/dynamic cooling could overcome it If the Euro Op is right, I think folks NW of the fall line should feel pretty good about that. For the cities and points SE, not a sure bet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I'm not. If it snows, accumulations would be highly elevation dependent most likely, as they usually are on the edges of the winter season. Slowing this storm down by 12 hours would help advect in some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 it's a Miller A for the most part, albeit maybe not a classic one, so regardless of the month, it's always a struggle straddling the line between the heaviest precip w/o taint and a mix of some sort obviously, the fact that we're talking end of Novie, it's more tenuous, but still doable so I'm in (just in case someone was wondering...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If it snows, accumulations would be highly elevation dependent most likely, as they usually are on the edges of the winter season. Slowing this storm down by 12 hours would help advect in some colder air. yes....There is no cold air anywhere...the closest cold is over Wisconsin and Minnesota...that said there is no warm air either...40s down into Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 People always use the cliche "thread the needle"...if we hit a homerun with this one then it would be a classic TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Here's Jason's post on the system. Just looked at the eruo stormvista snow algorithms from the euro. They are the anti-wxBell version. Proably more realistic and it looks like it doesn't allow snow to accumulate unless the surface is freezing. Bob, to me the euro ensemble still were further east than I'd like for a storm. The low pressure over the lakes would be an unusual set up for I95 to get much snow though the 1st Jan KU or 1987 had a similar pattern so it's not impossible but in November is pretty worrisome. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/22/east-coast-storm-possible-wednesday-before-thanksgiving-snow-chance-for-d-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 yes....There is no cold air anywhere...the closest cold is over Wisconsin and Minnesota...that said there is no warm air either...40s down into Florida... well its mid nov, not January so im thinking it will be hard to get a real good snowstorm unless ur from i81 west and north of mason Dixon. just not the right time of year for a good snow storm in mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 WAYYY out of its range, but this is a pretty impressive mean for this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Same here. Like I said earlier, having to rely on rates is a red flag. Sure, it can happen...I've seen big accumulations using rates/dynamic cooling...but it is a hard thing to do. How else would we get the surface to cooperate in a setup like this? it isn't the most hostile setup....it is a much better scenario than say 3/6/13....there is a weakish area of high pressure to our north/northeast.....and a somewhat classic wedge....no column issues....it would probably be 33-34 and snow for us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If it snows, accumulations would be highly elevation dependent most likely, as they usually are on the edges of the winter season. Slowing this storm down by 12 hours would help advect in some colder air. I think that is the most likely scenario if we get a euro type storm. Anyway, it's something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 it isn't the most hostile setup....it is a much better scenario than say 3/6/13....there is a weakish area of high pressure to our north/northeast.....and a somewhat classic wedge....no column issues....it would probably be 33-34 and snow for us..... I think this is what we should hope for... if it sticks then its bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 People always use the cliche "thread the needle"...if we hit a homerun with this one then it would be a classic TTN there's no "we" down here...you should have learned that by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro snow map DT posted on his FB page (stormvista?) looks much more realistic- illustrating the surface temp issues from the cities east. Of course with the WeatherBell maps, what they lack in accuracy they make up for with those vivid pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 3-4 inches would qualify as a crippling blow in DC the day before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Here's Jason's post on the system. Just looked at the eruo stormvista snow algorithms from the euro. They are the anti-wxBell version. Proably more realistic and it looks like it doesn't allow snow to accumulate unless the surface is freezing. Bob, to me the euro ensemble still were further east than I'd like for a storm. The low pressure over the lakes would be an unusual set up for I95 to get much snow though the 1st Jan KU or 1987 had a similar pattern so it's not impossible but in November is pretty worrisome. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/22/east-coast-storm-possible-wednesday-before-thanksgiving-snow-chance-for-d-c/ I was encouraged by the move west from last night but agree the mean is too far east to get overly excited. There were a good # of flush hits on the members compared to last night. Never like LP anywhere near the lakes of course so that is always a flag for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 3-4 inches would qualify as a crippling blow in DC the day before Thanksgiving. in much the same way as an all day rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro snow map DT posted on his FB page (stormvista?) looks much more realistic- illustrating the surface temp issues from the cities east. Of course with the WeatherBell maps, what they lack in accuracy they make up for with those vivid pretty colors.It still shows like 6 inches for DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 3-4 inches would qualify as a crippling blow in DC the day before Thanksgiving. lol that sounded really funny after watching the southern burbs of Buffalo dig out from 6-8 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 in much the same way as an all day rain.An inch would make national news and cause huge traffic jams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol that sounded really funny after watching the southern burbs of Buffalo dig out from 6-8 feet.It's dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Been in South Carolina since Thursday, so it would suck to miss a decent snow, but that would make it two years in a row missing a storm. That said, I really don't think I have anything to worry about. Far more likely to be a cold rain ending in slop than a significant accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Shortwave that enters the PacNW at 60 hrs is key. The more it digs the better off we are. Models disagree on how much it digs and weather or not it's on the northern or southern stream. Endless possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 An inch would make national news and cause huge traffic jams. not with such marginal temps. thump or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The Euro snow map DT posted on his FB page (stormvista?) looks much more realistic- illustrating the surface temp issues from the cities east. Of course with the WeatherBell maps, what they lack in accuracy they make up for with those vivid pretty colors. SV map does a better job conveying the sfc temp issue, but it is still just a map using an algorithm that is limited by data intervals and makes some assumptions about what happens in between them......in our favor, sun angle isn't an issue, and we don't have to worry about a warm nose in the mid levels or a deep warm layer above the surface...950mb-975mb will be below freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It still shows like 6 inches for DCA... Then I don't think it was the stormvista one as it kept the accumulating snow west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 not with such marginal temps. thump or bust. It would cause a mental freakout with flakes falling. Most folks do 70 in the rain. Add a snowflake in the air and cut that in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This? Yeah that.. Looking at exact amounts at this time frame is pointless, but there is a clear indication of elevation aided snow amounts on this map, where the WeatherBell map basically has well over 6 inches everywhere other than the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 SV map does a better job conveying the sfc temp issue, but it is still just a map using an algorithm that is limited by data intervals and makes some assumptions about what happens in between them......in our favor, sun angle isn't an issue, and we don't have to worry about a warm nose in the mid levels or a deep warm layer above the surface...950mb-975mb will be below freezing... All true, The euro would give us snow albeit probably at 34 degrees for most of the storm. At this time range none of it matters much though I wish our elevation was 1000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.