nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was my Facebook forecast 10 minutes ago for DC 2pm, Monday Update on Wednesday storm - Still low to medium confidence. Models are starting to converge on a low to medium impact event for immediate DC metro. I think we start as rain in the early morning hours, changing over to all snow late morning. Tapering off early evening. Temps around 34 during the core of the event. We will probably never hit freezing. I like a general 1-3" for DC proper. With 1" amounts downtown and increasing as you move north and west. Very little street stickage though not out of the question during heavier bursts. Mostly a cosmetic wet event that sticks to cartops, decks, and grass.. Even if we get really heavy snow that is disruptive for a while, it should melt some during lighter periods, and possibly mix with rain. Thanksgiving looks cloudy but dry, maybe a flurry, low 40s in the afternoon. Nice informative forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREFs got wetter it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems on point, but are you adjusting the "impact" at all for the fact that this is one of the heaviest travel days of the year..? This was my Facebook forecast 10 minutes ago for DC 2pm, Monday Update on Wednesday storm - Still low to medium confidence. Models are starting to converge on a low to medium impact event for immediate DC metro. I think we start as rain in the early morning hours, changing over to all snow late morning. Tapering off early evening. Temps around 34 during the core of the event. We will probably never hit freezing. I like a general 1-3" for DC proper. With 1" amounts downtown and increasing as you move north and west. Very little street stickage though not out of the question during heavier bursts. Mostly a cosmetic wet event that sticks to cartops, decks, and grass.. Even if we get really heavy snow that is disruptive for a while, it should melt some during lighter periods, and possibly mix with rain. Thanksgiving looks cloudy but dry, maybe a flurry, low 40s in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree. The timing on the models right now also seems similar to 12/5/09 in terms of the window of best accumulations. Looking through spotter reports, it looks like 12/5/09 was 0.7-1" liquid in the immediate metro DC area. So, as long as the surface temp forecasts hold (33-34 at the height), I would expect pretty similar results. We had street coverage of snow anywhere NW of the beltway in 12/5/09-- did the snow stick on the streets in Tenleytown? probably a little at times.. just south of there: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ianlivingston/4430369020/in/set-72157623443621264 https://www.flickr.com/photos/ianlivingston/4430370714/in/set-72157623443621264 https://www.flickr.com/photos/ianlivingston/4430368432/in/set-72157623443621264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG - Kudos on the snow map. I think you all really nailed it. It will be interesting to see if eastern half of loudon can score 3+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's the reanalysis for 12/5/09. You can quickly see the similarities, but there are certainly some differences with this event, as modeled. This week's potential event looks wetter and stronger with a more western storm track. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us1205.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems on point, but are you adjusting the "impact" at all for the fact that this is one of the heaviest travel days of the year..? well if we're talking about i95, I'd be pretty surprised if any significant amount accumulated on the road, even with heavy rates. Talking about a road that will very wet, totally covered in holiday traffic traveling fairly slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Another great set of info from 12/5/09, from radar, to every level of the atmosphere...From Famartin's archive... http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/05-Dec-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. I like how they say my name a couple of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore: http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor Pretty damn close to what my thoughts are at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREFs got wetter it looks like Probably an extra tenth or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like 3-5" for my neck of the woods... a bit less than 12/5/09 but I think I got a little lucky that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREFs got wetter it looks like And maybe a touch colder at both the surface and 850's. lines moved maybe 15 miles or so. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty damn close to what my thoughts are at the moment. Masco is a huge weenie like all of us here, but he's great at keeping it real. On the flip side, Accu-hype went 3-6 down the 95 corridor. 6-12 N&W. Hah. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like 3-5" for my neck of the woods... a bit less than 12/5/09 but I think I got a little lucky that day. Bad measurement out here for that one. Strange little bullseye of nothingness surrounded by 5-6" measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Masco is a huge weenie like all of us here, but he's great at keeping it real. On the flip side, Accu-hype went 3-6 down the 95 corridor. 6-12 N&W. Hah. Shocker. To be fair...they don't add a range for lower than 12 but more than 6 like 6-7 falls within 6-12 so they get the 6-12 range. Doesnt mean they are caling for up to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 At least Wes got his house in the 1" area. I actually would have prefered to leave it out but thought as a first guess it was close enough. I'll be happy to see a little slush on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm already refreshing WPC for new probability maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I agree. The timing on the models right now also seems similar to 12/5/09 in terms of the window of best accumulations. Looking through spotter reports, it looks like 12/5/09 was 0.7-1" liquid in the immediate metro DC area. So, as long as the surface temp forecasts hold (33-34 at the height), I would expect pretty similar results. We had street coverage of snow anywhere NW of the beltway in 12/5/09-- did the snow stick on the streets in Tenleytown? I was in MTP, and there might have been some side slush briefly, but generally no street or sidewalk stickage..1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18Z NAM started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF is lol..almost 1.5" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 18Z NAM started It should be in range in 3-4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It should be in range in 3-4 hours you mean in 3-4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF is lol..almost 1.5" for DC This is the 3rd straight run that the QPF has increased on the SREFs... its either onto something or smoking something... also I believe it was a touch colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is the 3rd straight run that the QPF has increased on the SREFs... its either onto something or smoking something... also I believe it was a touch colder We've trended wetter and colder for 1.5 yrs. This won't be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We've trended wetter and colder for 1.5 yrs. This won't be any different. Begs the question though, have the SREFs ever led the way in the run up to a winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We've trended wetter and colder for 1.5 yrs. This won't be any different. Well since you said that Ian, I'm not sure if you're serious but thats not a completely false statement. SREF's are beautiful, but that means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well since you said that Ian, I'm not sure if you're serious but thats not a completely false statement. SREF's are beautiful, but that means little. I believe we will maximize potential or close. I'm just not totally sure that's good enough around me but mapgirl will be giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 you mean in 3-4 days? Ha..I meant the length of time it takes the NAM to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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