Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/111121.png thanks lol. Ill take the 87 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 thanks lol. Ill take the 87 storm why?..you might get more from this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I really like 12/5/09 as an analog for immediate DC metro..Though I think this event might be slightly wetter for immediate DC metro...I can't really speak for York Springs or Westminster or the Philly burbs http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205 (scroll down) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/5/DailyHistory.html (scroll down) http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt= Hmmm. That doesn't work well when I cross it with my analogs list: http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/status-archives/ <<edit to fix link>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 why?..you might get more from this oneYeah wasn't the greatest out there. PG special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm. That doesn't work well when I cross it with my analogs list: http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/status-archives/ link doesn't work but maybe you're looking too much at synoptics warm event around the same time of the year, that started in the early AM as rain in the low 40s, changed over and was snow during the day at 33-35, with around 0.7" of QPF...1.5" for me in Mt. Pleasant.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore: http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://imgur.com/h6sdLaf Thanks Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm. That doesn't work well when I cross it with my analogs list: http://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/status-archives/ <<edit to fix link>> maybe I'm missing what I am supposed to be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore: http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor whoa... wasn't expecting 6-8" up here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For those interested--Mike Masco's forecast for ABC2 in Baltimore: http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/travel-nightmare-winter-storm-to-impact-maryland-wednesday Seems reasonable, though I would have guessed a smidge more on the 95 corridor bullish for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 whoa... wasn't expecting 6-8" up here at all. no respect. need to learn the ways of jay's wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 whoa... wasn't expecting 6-8" up here at all. up to 12" in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Apologies if already posted, but what would the Euro start time be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Apologies if already posted, but what would the Euro start time be? 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4am Appreciate it Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. With such high variability throughout the regions' various forecasts, there's going to be lot of hits and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. Seems reasonable....maybe a little on the high side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. Not bad for an initial forecast, certainly highlights the tricky nature of an accumulation forecast in a marginal temp situations. I just told people 1-3" for immediate downtowns and low-elevation locations near the Bay. 2-4" for areas immediately around that area but at higher elevation. 3-6" for areas >=400ft N&W of I-95 and then 5-8" for the Manchester/Mt. Parkton crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ive told Ian that I owe him a public apology should I get more than 6". I called him a troll for suggesting as much yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wundermap has a heck of a lot of snow for everyone at 6Z Thurs... Updating my earlier comment, it shows 6-7" on a single frame of the euro??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 up to 12" in spots. I wouldn't be surprised at a double-digit total on the peak of Mt. Vortmax/psuhoffman. Maybe 7-8" for Parkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 With such high variability throughout the regions' various forecasts, there's going to be lot of hits and misses. Early and late season snow forecasts should be graded on a curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ive told Ian that I owe him a public apology should I get more than 6". I called him a troll for suggesting as much yesterday. to be fair i troll so much it's hard to tell when I'm serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4am The thing I liked about the euro is that there is only .1+/- DC northward by 7am. Then the precip hammer drops. I don't want an early start time with the heavy rates. It will waste more on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 CWG map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/ I'd probably bring the 1-3 to my house at least. At least Wes got his house in the 1" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ive told Ian that I owe him a public apology should I get more than 6". I called him a troll for suggesting as much yesterday. I think you've got a very good chance at 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was my Facebook forecast 10 minutes ago for DC 2pm, Monday Update on Wednesday storm - Still low to medium confidence. Models are starting to converge on a low to medium impact event for immediate DC metro. I think we start as rain in the early morning hours, changing over to all snow late morning. Tapering off early evening. Temps around 34 during the core of the event. We will probably never hit freezing. I like a general 1-3" for DC proper. With 1" amounts downtown and increasing as you move north and west. Very little street stickage though not out of the question during heavier bursts. Mostly a cosmetic wet event that sticks to cartops, decks, and grass.. Even if we get really heavy snow that is disruptive for a while, it should melt some during lighter periods, and possibly mix with rain. Thanksgiving looks cloudy but dry, maybe a flurry, low 40s in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GFS BUFKIT doesn't look really good. Best omega is outside the dendrite zone and temps are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I really like 12/5/09 as an analog for immediate DC metro..Though I think this event might be slightly wetter for immediate DC metro...I can't really speak for York Springs or Westminster or the Philly burbs http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/?event=20091205 (scroll down) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/5/DailyHistory.html (scroll down) http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F048&rundt= I agree. The timing on the models right now also seems similar to 12/5/09 in terms of the window of best accumulations. Looking through spotter reports, it looks like 12/5/09 was 0.7-1" liquid in the immediate metro DC area. So, as long as the surface temp forecasts hold (33-34 at the height), I would expect pretty similar results. We had street coverage of snow anywhere NW of the beltway in 12/5/09-- did the snow stick on the streets in Tenleytown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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