PhineasC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Is the UKMET still the second best model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 i can remember a few storms when living around rockville/olney that accumulated with temps 33-35. when it lightened, it became more of a sleet/freezing rain mix, but switched over quickly with rates. it can and does happen with a good track. In this case, the warm layer is at the surface, so light precip would be rain instead of IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's what ensembles are for...check out the difference between 2m temps above freezing and 925mb that stay below. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t925&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201411241200%26HH%3D54 GEFS are nearly useless now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not feeling that bad now about missing this one. Still hope yall have fun. It's a relief and a burden not being emotionally invested. I think Matt's formula is pretty good down here. FDK and HGR and MPGRL look to be the hot zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Through experience I have found the RGEM/GGEM precip type maps to be very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GEFS are nearly useless now. well they seem to be trending colder at 925mb at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not feeling that bad now about missing this one. Still hope yall have fun. It's a relief and a burden not being emotionally invested. I think Matt's formula is pretty good down here. FDK and HGR and MPGRL look to be the hot zones.FDK might have issues with elevation since it's in a valley, otherwise I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Through experience I have found the RGEM/GGEM precip type maps to be very accurate. well, RGEM has snow in the big cities at 48 hrs while GGEM doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FDK might have issues with elevation since it's in a valley, otherwise I agree. During marginal events like this, FDK fails. The Frederick Valley usually has warm air trapped in it and without good CAA, it never leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJB Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 During marginal events like this, FDK fails. The Frederick Valley usually has warm air trapped in it and without good CAA, it never leaves. Huge difference between downtown and those of us who live just outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 this may be my biggest November storm here. Only need more than 4" to beat. years ago I had coop data for westminster and manchester that went back to the 20's and there were some very nice November storms back in the day. A few 10" plus events and one that was even around 20" or so way back in like the 40's or 50's. Unfortunately I lost the data when a computer crashed and have yet to find it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hello 2/3/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO looks slightly SE through 42 48 is 1007mb L near Wilmington in SE NC 850s around -2 at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro came east a tad but is still west of other guidance... Around 1" QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hello 2/3/2014 Yeah, that was bad. I think I got .5". Or was that 2/5/14? I lost all of my snow records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro came east a tad but is still west of other guidance... Around 1" QPF for DC lost a lot of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 .6-.7 through 95 corridor from 12-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro came east a tad but is still west of other guidance... Around 1" QPF for DC Did it trend slightly colder since it moved east a lil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lost a lot of QPF not really...looks similar to 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Surface pretty much a uniform 34 @ 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 .6-.7 through 95 corridor from 12-18z I am hoping that we are snow by 13z or so... would be nice pasting for 5-7 hrs and then tapers off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks good to me.. or as good as it can be. I think SV may actually underdo on their snow algorithm heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Did it trend slightly colder since it moved east a lil? looks similar to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 During marginal events like this, FDK fails. The Frederick Valley usually has warm air trapped in it and without good CAA, it never leaves. Huge difference between downtown and those of us who live just outside. My favorite example of the FDK valley effect. I believe this is the storm that hit around Halloween 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Uniform 1" totals right up 95 and one county either way. It's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 H7 is totally fine. No signs of that going above freezing. 850's -1-2 at onset and drop a couple degrees. Surface 35-39 at onset but probably drop quick once the good rates kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks good to me.. or as good as it can be. I think SV may actually underdo on their snow algorithm heh. I don't think their algorithm is very sophisticated...I doubt they count heavy snow at 34....but that said, their snow line did come east from 0z which indicates that this run is slightly colder...which makes sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WSW at 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think their algorithm is very sophisticated...I doubt they count heavy snow at 34....but that said, their snow line did come east from 0z which indicates that this run is slightly colder...which makes sense... I got a feeling there's is based on the wetbulb or dewpoint temp at the surface getting down to freezing as it seem pretty conservative though still better than the wxbell it alwasy snows wth an 850 below zero algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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