Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll meet you in Tenleytown for lunch on Wednesday..... Obligatory storm content - I'd toss the GFS runs in terms of QPF right now Yeah could do that. I think I'm taking Wed off my dad is coming into town tomorrow. Agree on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GFS has a lot going for it. If you look at the 500 vort passage, 850 low passage, nice UVVs at 700mb, starting at the right entrance region of a strong jet max, you'd think it would be a classic Miller A solution for a I-95 snowstorm. Obviously the airmass is marginal, but I don't really see why it's so dry given all those positive dynamical factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From the final HPC Extended Disco at 11am on 11/24-- THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD AIR DELIVERY INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN US...BUT SUSPECT THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID COLD AIR ARRIVAL MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00 UTC GFS/GFS PARALLEL MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW ACROSS MID-HIGH LATITUDES AND HISTORICAL SLOW MODEL BIAS WITH LOW LEVEL DENSE AIR DELIVERY. THIS MAINTAINS BETTER WPC CONTINUITY AS WELL DESPITE AMPLE RECENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND ALSO OFFERS A FRONTAL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ORGANIZED BUT MUCH MORE MODEST PCPN POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THE WETTER LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM EXITING THE ERN US DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. Great read, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 48 hrs GGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif 60 hrs GGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif GGEM looks good to me... waiting for better QPF maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 48 hrs GGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif 60 hrs GGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif GGEM looks good to me... waiting for better QPF maps though GGEM takes a similar track to GFS but is wetter...around 0.85" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I whipped up Dulles' top 10 in Nov as well. I think we can make it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/any-snow-accumulation-in-november-is-unusual-in-the-d-c-area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM takes a similar track to GFS but is wetter...around 0.85" for euro seems way to wet usually with noreasters? 00z had DCA at 1.32 qpf if i remember correctly, euro way overdid qpf for the last Feb storm by about .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I whipped up Dulles' top 10 in Nov as well. I think we can make it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/any-snow-accumulation-in-november-is-unusual-in-the-d-c-area/ how can it snow in the season right after summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was 2/11/14 0z euro precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sterlings latest AFD hinting at 3" - 5" for N&W burbs. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTICWEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILEDEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING INTHESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOOEXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICALCOOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAIDWENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALLACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOSNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OFBALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSSTHIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE ANDWASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONGTHE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONGI-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILLLIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTINGIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH ISEXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z UKIE at 48 and 60... looks great to me... thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's the 0z gfs from 2/11/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z UKIE at 48 and 60... looks great to me... thoughts? 12zUKIE11-24-1448hrs.gif that looks really good. strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm with Ian and Matt. GFS sucks at precip with miller A's until it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was 2/11/14 0z euro precip BWI got 1.86" liquid. Looks pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UKMET looks like an acceptable setup. Track and thicknesses would definitely support accumulating snowfall west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z UKIE 48 hr QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I whipped up Dulles' top 10 in Nov as well. I think we can make it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/any-snow-accumulation-in-november-is-unusual-in-the-d-c-area/ Good read. Nice short and I liked it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 60 hrs 12z UKIE QPF map... deform banded I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Here's the 0z gfs from 2/11/14 Snowfall reports: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/events/snowmaps/?event=20140213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 60 hrs 12z UKIE QPF map... deform banded I believe 12zUKIE11-24-1460hrsQPF.gif Most certainly Yoda, that's at or around 1" of QPF in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There is a high bust potential with this system. Interesting to see the progressive nature of the GFS this run. Euro is now an outlier. Current 12 Z UKMET supports EURO, not GFS. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GFS soundings look...weird. 12z on Wednesday looks fine, with the low levels still fairly dry, but the WBZ altitude is quite low, maybe 975-950mb? But at 18z Wednesday, there's dry air throughout the column. Really not sure where this is coming from. Certainly a different look then yesterday's skew-t's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These precip type maps from the GGEM look pretty warm* 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The dead time between the GFS and Euro when people way over-analyze the Canadian models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These precip type maps from the GGEM look pretty warm* 10am Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The dead time between the GFS and Euro when people way over-analyze the Canadian models. As well as the UKIE... I think most of us hope the EURO stays the course or looks like the 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 agreed...which is why I think 2" on cartops and decks...not unlike 3/25/14...I got 2" and it was 33-35 all day...when it snowed hard it stuck, and then when it lightened up it melted and went to 35.......If this was March I'd be even less enthusiastic....I'm counting on sun angle...perhaps too much....but yeah...the general idea is we get pummeled...the less that happens, the worse we do of course....3/6 should strike the fear in everyone, but snowstorms above freezing aren't that uncommon i can remember a few storms when living around rockville/olney that accumulated with temps 33-35. when it lightened, it became more of a sleet/freezing rain mix, but switched over quickly with rates. it can and does happen with a good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks good to me Yeah I meant bad for the big cities...looking good for the burbs for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The dead time between the GFS and Euro when people way over-analyze the Canadian models. That's what ensembles are for...check out the difference between 2m temps above freezing and 925mb that stay below. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t925&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201411241200%26HH%3D54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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