Scuddz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 they're not....I share your skepticism big time, but I don't think the idea is we get to 32 or below...We get snow at 33-35 and hope it is heavy enough, and that the sun angle is more helpful.... It would take some ripping rates to get much accumulation downtown with big, half-melted flakes in the middle of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 they're not....I share your skepticism big time, but I don't think the idea is we get to 32 or below...We get snow at 33-35 and hope it is heavy enough, and that the sun angle is more helpful.... Yep I feel you. The good thing is the track didn't change too much it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS track looks great, but QPF is lackluster..brings back memories from last February. GFS is really light on precip this run from 95 and west. Reminds me of the feb storm last year. h5 and 850 track argued for much more precip further west but the gfs kept holding drier until the bitter end. gfsqpf.GIF Yeah, that was a case of frontogenetic forcing, and the GFS totally screwing up how convective the first round would be with subsidence/dry air. Once those fields come in, I'll let you guys know how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is really light on precip this run from 95 and west. Reminds me of the feb storm last year. h5 and 850 track argued for much more precip further west but the gfs kept holding drier until the bitter end. gfsqpf.GIF What Feb storm are you referring to? The big one? BTW, I'd be happy with the map you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It would take some ripping rates to get much accumulation downtown with big, half-melted flakes in the middle of the afternoon. Time of day is really against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS seems to have slowly sped up the s/w from 00z run, fwiw. goes neutral/neg sooner too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What Feb storm are you referring to? The big one? BTW, I'd be happy with the map you posted. Yeah I remember the GFS giving us some really dry runs in the lead up to that storm while maintaining a favorable track as the EURO/NAM etc were all going boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What Feb storm are you referring to? The big one? BTW, I'd be happy with the map you posted. Yea, GFS frustrated the heck out of us. Euro was wet. It had its usual wobbles but never really backed off a good qpf event. GFS was consistently dry. Kept the heaviest precip confined to the coast and offshore. But the track and strength looked fine for a good precip event. I can't remember when it came to it's senses but it was really close in. Like 36-48 hours I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It would take some ripping rates to get much accumulation downtown with big, half-melted flakes in the middle of the afternoon. agreed...which is why I think 2" on cartops and decks...not unlike 3/25/14...I got 2" and it was 33-35 all day...when it snowed hard it stuck, and then when it lightened up it melted and went to 35.......If this was March I'd be even less enthusiastic....I'm counting on sun angle...perhaps too much....but yeah...the general idea is we get pummeled...the less that happens, the worse we do of course....3/6 should strike the fear in everyone, but snowstorms above freezing aren't that uncommon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yea, GFS frustrated the heck out of us. Euro was wet. It had its usual wobbles but never really backed off a good qpf event. GFS was consistently dry. Kept the heaviest precip confined to the coast and off short. But the track and strength looked fine for a good precip event. I can't remember when it came to it's senses but it was really close in. Like 36-48 hours I think. it was still out to lunch at 36-48 hours.... anyway, Xbox looks pretty much the same as Atari...maybe a tad wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 agreed...which is why I think 2" on cartops and decks...not unlike 3/25/14...I got 2" and it was 33-35 all day...when it snowed hard it stuck, and then when it lightened up it melted and went to 35.......If this was March I'd be even less enthusiastic....I'm counting on sun angle...perhaps too much....but yeah...the general idea is we get pummeled...the less that happens, the worse we do of course....3/6 should strike the fear in everyone, but snowstorms above freezing aren't that uncommon It's also going to have been pouring rain ahead of the snow likely so that would help melt some on contact as well. 3/25 may be a good comparison, IIRC it was uber-warm ahead of that storm too. edit: yep 73 3 days prior. probably the only thing it has in common though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 well, at 7AM, predominant precip in the cities is snow or mix, with it changing to all snow shortly thereafter http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141124+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hmmm.... I may be a weenie, but that looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yea, GFS frustrated the heck out of us. Euro was wet. It had its usual wobbles but never really backed off a good qpf event. GFS was consistently dry. Kept the heaviest precip confined to the coast and off short. But the track and strength looked fine for a good precip event. I can't remember when it came to it's senses but it was really close in. Like 36-48 hours I think. It didn't cave until it was ripping snow under orange echoes...almost ruined the storm for me. Best part was how the HRRR dominated all other short term guidance w/ the deformation & strong UVVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not entirely sure here yet; but, if I didn't know better, I'd say they were internal gravity waves the GFS is developing. They seem to significantly affect precipitation/dry air on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 FWIW xbox gfs is a bit wetter than regular, also likes the clipper idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's also going to have been pouring rain ahead of the snow likely so that would help melt some on contact as well. 3/25 may be a good comparison, IIRC it was uber-warm ahead of that storm too. yeah...I think this follows the standard template with early and late season snow...localized impacts..heavily elevation and lat/lon dependent....Any specific forecast is probably going to suck when it comes to amounts....I think 12/10/13 is kind of the lower end/worst case for DC....lack of dynamics, shifting precip types, too dry....I got 0.5" from that one...this *should* be wetter, the storm is going to be stronger, and temp profiles will be the same...I won't be going for big snow in DC, even for Upper NW....but I expect conditions across the city to vary greatly.....For me, I need a couple hours of 0.5 mi or less.....because I doubt I drop below 33-34, even in the heavy stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Great track. Let's just focus on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM at 48 hrs -- snowing at IAD... DCA/BWI mixing and about to change over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Not to go into denial, but didn't DTK highlight concerns over the convective parameterization(s) in the GFS? I might be talking out of my butt here as I'm not sure what thermodynamic domain(s) this applies to, or how the mesoscale forcings here differ from last Feb..? Really want to see the GGEM/ECMWF today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 From the final HPC Extended Disco at 11am on 11/24-- THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD AIR DELIVERY INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN US...BUT SUSPECT THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID COLD AIR ARRIVAL MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00 UTC GFS/GFS PARALLEL MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW ACROSS MID-HIGH LATITUDES AND HISTORICAL SLOW MODEL BIAS WITH LOW LEVEL DENSE AIR DELIVERY. THIS MAINTAINS BETTER WPC CONTINUITY AS WELL DESPITE AMPLE RECENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND ALSO OFFERS A FRONTAL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ORGANIZED BUT MUCH MORE MODEST PCPN POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THE WETTER LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM EXITING THE ERN US DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z GGEM at 48 hrs -- snowing at IAD... DCA/BWI mixing and about to change over to snow I_nw_r1_EST_2014112412_048.png I think that's the RGEM. It was posted 45 minutes ago in the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Obligatory storm commentary - I'm sticking with my algorithm from last night which gives me like 2.2" Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total. I still like my algorithm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting WPC and LWX are kind of out of whack on totals. They seemed to hold hands last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting WPC and LWX are kind of out of whack on totals. They seemed to hold hands last yr. Just trying to increase the chances that at least one of them is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting WPC and LWX are kind of out of whack on totals. They seemed to hold hands last yr. I'll meet you in Tenleytown for lunch on Wednesday..... Obligatory storm content - I'd toss the GFS runs in terms of QPF right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There is a high bust potential with this system. Interesting to see the progressive nature of the GFS this run. Euro is now an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I still like my algorithm.... The x1.75 multiplier seems very very bullish to me and implies that this storm will be a lot better than a composite of the events you listed... I'd get raked if I went by your formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The x1.75 multiplier seems very very bullish to me and implies that this storm will be a lot better than a composite of the events you listed... I'd get raked if I went by your formula. but you live like 175 miles from me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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