nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll gladly accept my 48% chance @ 6" wpc.GIF I was surprised to see that this morning. That seems pretty optimistic, but what do I know. Also, if you want to have some fun, check the box for > 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good opportunity to use their new zone thing right? That does not go into effect until 8:00 am on December 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 those of us along and east of I95 need decent rates, though the Euro does that but has me at 1.5C during most of the heavy precip it's a nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The latest from Justin Berk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6z gfs is most likely a blip imho. Euro ensemble mean precip is around 1.1" qpf for most of us. Almost unanimous with ind member output as well. 4k nam sim radar @ hr 60 is pretty sweet. Temps 33-35 all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I didn't think those went into affect until December. Yeah, December 3rd. If there was a way for them to use the new zones for this storm then it would be a huge help... the differences between the colder burbs and the coastal plain will matter a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6z gfs is most likely a blip imho. Euro ensemble mean precip is around 1.1" qpf for most of us. Almost unanimous with ind member output as well. 4k nam sim radar @ hr 60 is pretty sweet. Temps 33-35 all over. 4k.GIF IMO its still showing a cold bias. Most other storms of this nature have the R/S line right over DC along 95. That darker color(deform band) will be up in the usual spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOOM 09z SREFs... 24 hr QPF from 03z WED to 03z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Definitely a snow sounding by 18z wed on teh 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12hr QPF total from 09z SREF from 09z WED to 21z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Definitely a snow sounding by 18z wed on teh 6z gfs Yeah I was looking at those as well. It looks like 0.25+ falls after 18z, I'm hoping we flip around 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 06z RGEM at 54 has nice amount of QPF.... 1006 L just off the Outer Banks with a 1023 H in SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thought this bit was interesting from HPC, particularly the last para laying out why the Euro/UKMet are snowier, and where thye get their cold from. DAYS 2 TO 3......SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND....GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TRAVEL DISRUPTION DURING THE PEAKPRE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEFORECAST FOR THIS STORM IS QUITE CRUCIAL. A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAYEVENING AND THEN RIDE UP ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A BANDOF SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ENTRANCEREGION OF A 200 KT 250 MB JET OVER THE NORTHEAST. NOTUNEXPECTEDLY...THERE ARE QUITE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONSWITH VERY DIFFERENT IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANTDIFFERENCES INVOLVE WHETHER THE STORM BECOMES RATHER INTENSE ON ASLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK VERSUS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MOREEASTERLY TRACK...THOUGH THERE MAY ME A TREND TOWARD SOME MIDDLEGROUND BETWEEN THESE FORECASTS. IN EITHER EVENT...SIGNIFICANTSNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR..WHETHER OR NOT IT ISALONG THE CORRIDOR OR SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE DETERMINISTICFORECAST MADE SHOWED THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST INLAND WITH SOMEACCUMULATIONS IN THE BIG CITIES REFLECTING A COMBINATION OF RAINCHANGING TO SNOW.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ONTUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHERELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS NW SOUTH CAROLINA/WESTERNNORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.SNOW AND COASTAL RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 3...THEPEAK OF THE PRE HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND THEN END ACROSS EASTERN MAINEON THANKSGIVING MORNING.HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS MERELY ONE OF MANY THAT TYPIFYPOTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. TOGENERATE THE FORECAST...THERE SEEMED TO BE MORE SIMILARITIESBETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/THE 00Z GFS/THE 21Z SREF THANWITH THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF AND UKMET. THAT SAID...THE ECMWF/UKMETCANNOT BE IGNORED AND PRESENTS SOME INTERESTING ALTERNATIVES.THESE RUNS HAVE A CYCLONE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE AND CLOSER TO THECOAST WITH A 1000/500 THICKNESS PATTERN THAT FIRST APPEARS TOOHIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE BIG CITIES. HOWEVER...THEMODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITELOW FOR THOSE THICKNESSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWLEVELS AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH. THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP INTHAT RELATIVELY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROMTHE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK WITHIN APRONOUNCED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS SUGGESTS A FLOWOF NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AIRFLOW RATHER THAN A MORE EASTERLYSURFACE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...THE KEY TO QPF TYPE WILL NOT LIE ATTHE SURFACE BUT MORE LIKELY ALOFT AND THAT SCENARIO REFLECTS THEINTERACTION OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEMIDWEST WITH THE LIFTING TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SUBTLECHANGES IN THAT INTERACTION COULD SPELL THE DIFFERENCES ALREADYDISCUSSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12Z NAM coming aboard I think -- at 45 hrs, 1008mb L just south of Cape Hatteras and at 48 1008mb L directly east of NC/VA border by 100 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12Z NAM coming aboard I think -- at 45 hrs, 1008mb L just south of Cape Hatteras and at 48 1008mb L directly east of NC/VA border by 100 miles or so Looks good out to 51....haven't seen beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 we just need heavy precipitation. Thats all we got as temps are too marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Fwiw, WPC's interactive probability charts looks much more impressive around D.C. than their ms paint looking graphics that have such large in-between values. 50-60% for >4", ~30% for >8" right up I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems to be a bit drier for our immediate area. 12Z NAM coming aboard I think -- at 45 hrs, 1008mb L just south of Cape Hatteras and at 48 1008mb L directly east of NC/VA border by 100 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM should get its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These dry GFS/NAM runs are annoying...though SREF is really wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam is warm and drier. .5" just west of the cities. No sticking snow for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 idk why you folks even look at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 idk why you folks even look at the NAM especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 12z HI-RES NAM has it snowing at KIAD at 12z.... DCA mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 idk why you folks even look at the NAM SREF mean is 1.2" for DC and Hi-Res is wet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam is warm and drier. .5" just west of the cities. No sticking snow for the cities. Should we be alarmed? Usually at this point we're all giddy with ourselves about how we just got NAM'd. Lets toss it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Should we be alarmed? Usually at this point we're all giddy with ourselves about how we just got NAM'd. Lets toss it. ;-) no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Should we be alarmed? Usually at this point we're all giddy with ourselves about how we just got NAM'd. Lets toss it. ;-) There are a lot of reasons to be alarmed but the nam isn't one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 the trailing system goes to our south on the NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 There are a lot of reasons to be alarmed but the nam isn't one of them. Partially kidding. I hear you though I just want this day to go well for our modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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