EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 LWX map says nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is going to correct itself NW this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still pretty ****ty. Ugh. So true. Let's hope it's not the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ugh. So true. Let's hope it's not the correct solution. It's the NAM, so probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Bullish -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml For major 3 airports, 10% chance of 12"+, 40% chance of 8"+ (DCA just outside), and 70% or 4"+ (DCA just outside) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Took quick glance at 00z EURO ensemble mean... I would say its very nice but all i can see is SLP and 850s... anybody got QPF? Also, looks simiear to 12z ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WPC preferece for the event is a blend of 0z GFS op/21z SREF mean/12z EURO ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Took quick glance at 00z EURO ensemble mean... I would say its very nice but all i can see is SLP and 850s... anybody got QPF? Also, looks simiear to 12z ensemble mean For DCA. I got 1.2" Op and mean are within .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0.6" frozen on the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0.6" frozen on the 06z GFS For DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For DCA?YesJust quick look at coolwx. They spit out half/half snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 06z GFS cut way back on precip. The cycle of swings continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I am interested to see if we get a deform band in the regular location winchester/leesburg to n/w of Baltimore. That is a solid hp on the European. I would think it might trend a little colder over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6z nam is about 4-5" of snow for JYO and even gives some mood flakes Thanksgiving....not sure if it came to that solution differently than the other models but it sure seems like a 4-5" grass cover looks reasonable for my back yard. Pretty good start I would say if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm pretty surprised BOX pulled the trigger and put up winter storm watches up north. I wonder if LWX follows suit sometime today. I'm certain you will get plenty of opinions on whether they should shouldn't when and for how much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm certain you will get plenty of opinions on whether they should shouldn't when and for how much... From this morning's discussion it doesn't seem like LWX is too excited about this threat for the immediate DC area. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nor should they be. This screams wet flakes on wet surfaces with no accumulation in and east of the cities. If there are any watches/advisories posted I would only expect to see them in the N/W counties. From this morning's discussion it doesn't seem like LWX is too excited about this threat for the immediate DC area. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nor should they be. This screams wet flakes on wet surfaces with no accumulation in and east of the cities. If there are any watches/advisories posted I would only expect to see them in the N/W counties. Yeah I agree. Maybe watches for N/W this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice trends overnight. I feel like we're coming to a nice consensus. Nor should they be. This screams wet flakes on wet surfaces with no accumulation in and east of the cities. If there are any watches/advisories posted I would only expect to see them in the N/W counties. They'll put up watches for the entire CWA, IMO, because they can always downgrade some to advisories and upgrade some to warnings. Not sure when they'll do it. Maybe in the afternoon package, but could easily be later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice trends overnight. I feel like we're coming to a nice consensus. They'll put up watches for the entire CWA, IMO, because they can always downgrade some to advisories and upgrade some to warnings. Not sure when they'll do it. Maybe in the afternoon package, but could easily be later. Good opportunity to use their new zone thing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WPC seems to think decent snow gets into the cities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice trends overnight. I feel like we're coming to a nice consensus. They'll put up watches for the entire CWA, IMO, because they can always downgrade some to advisories and upgrade some to warnings. Not sure when they'll do it. Maybe in the afternoon package, but could easily be later. I was basing it off their disco. They state that N/W burbs could see 3-5" while DC and Bmore proper and east would be < 1". I think we've all seen this scenario play out enough times to know how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I didn't think those went into affect until December. Good opportunity to use their new zone thing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Good opportunity to use their new zone thing right? Yeah, perhaps. Given the impact to holiday travel, I'd bet they go conservative and warn/advise everyone. Although I've learned that trying to forecast LWX can be fruitless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WPC seems to think decent snow gets into the cities: image.jpg Since the red line goes through my back yard I'm going wit 55% probs for here???I assume or wonder how the probabilities taper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, perhaps. Given the impact to holiday travel, I'd bet they go conservative and warn/advise everyone. Although I've learned that trying to forecast LWX can be fruitless. Like I mentioned up top though...the opinions will come fast and furious...get your delete button ready...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 06z GFS cut way back on precip. The cycle of swings continues...It's fine. Were well into the deform band it's just doing its typical too dry on the west side thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll gladly accept my 48% chance @ 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll gladly accept my 48% chance @ 6" wpc.GIF I'll also gladly roll the dice with 40% at 6. I forget, are these human generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll also gladly roll the dice with 40% at 6. I forget, are these human generated? I'm not sure. I would guess that they aren't raw computer output. Plenty of time to up the odds to 70%+. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.