Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Terrific run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EAST The 72 hr position of the L tells me we do pretty well with QPF, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice. East and better all the way around. Snowing hard between 12-18z. Gotta figure out the flip. Prob rain metros at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well that was nice to see. H5 looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 850 line stays east of the chesapeake for pretty much all of the event based on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 72 hr position of the L tells me we do pretty well with QPF, right? >1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 72 hr position of the L tells me we do pretty well with QPF, right? sorry...been kind of analyzing it...not holding out on anyone ~1.1" for DC...it's east and colder...need to look more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 66 hr panel looks nice. ~0.55 from 12z-18z for DC with pockets 0.75" locally in MontCo and Frederick County (MD) suggesting possible banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 66 hr panel looks nice. ~0.55 from 12z-18z for DC with pockets 0.75" locally in MontCo and Frederick County (MD) suggesting possible banding. looks like we get into good deform too...just worry about temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hp stronger in se canada. 1029 now. Surface 34+/-during best rates. Precip máx shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looks like we get into good deform too...just worry about temps.. If it is below 32 but right at surface and crushing precip, think it flips over and once it does it won't go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 looks like we get into good deform too...just worry about temps.. No text output available yet but 925/850/700 all at or below from 12z onwards, based on WxBell maps. Surface looks to be 34 throughout the event but the rates and deform, we'd be fine I think. It's a great run. Definitely colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow!!! This is the stuff you expect later in winter. Shocked by the consensus. hP trending stronger is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guidance is locking in with track now. Best period for the metros is 7am-1pm with .5 to .75 for all. 1pm-7pm is good but best precip West of 95. Below freezing by midnight during the taper. Great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro has 925mb temps below 0 C throughout region by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No text output available yet but 925/850/700 all at or below from 12z onwards, based on WxBell maps. Surface looks to be 34 throughout the event but the rates and deform, we'd be fine I think. It's a great run. Definitely colder than 12z. it is a better track and better run, but it doesn't eliminate any of the issues we will have to deal with....it is no GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro has 925mb temps below 0 C throughout region by 12z it gets close around 18z but stays east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems like a much longer event on the Euro than what the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Guidance is locking in with track now. Best period for the metros is 7am-1pm with .5 to .75 for all. 1pm-7pm is good but best precip West of 95. Below freezing by midnight during the taper. Great run I'm never going to pull the trigger where I live...Too much can go wrong...I've been through this too many times to be fooled....I don't like warm events....I'll probably end up forecasting 2-3" for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 wow starting to get excited for the potential around here. Euro/UK/GGEM crush this area, even the GFS is a decent event. Have been holding back because its early but all the models are on board now. FWIW I think even in the cities, as that heavy band of precip pushes through it will be snow and accumulate, even if low ratios. Even if the further west tracks verify I think that is true, then once the heavier bands pushed north it might end as lighter slop but for several hours during the height of the storm I think its snowing in DC and Baltimore and accumulating fairly well. A nice thump event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 .2-.3 precip prior to 12z is borderline. 850's around -1-2 and surface marginal. Prob rain to start for the cities until rates pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Seems like a much longer event on the Euro than what the GFS has. it is....it's like 3am to 9pm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 .2-.3 precip prior to 12z is borderline. 850's around -1-2 and surface marginal. Prob rain to start for the cities until rates pick up yeah...I think the GFS is a cold outlier right now....I wouldn't take its thermal profiles too seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm never going to pull the trigger where I live...Too much can go wrong...I've been through this too many times to be fooled....I don't like warm events....I'll probably end up forecasting 2-3" for DC... Yea, 2-3 dca seems fair for sure. NW dc could fair better. River locations will fair worse. I feeling good with 5" over/under in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 wow starting to get excited for the potential around here. Euro/UK/GGEM crush this area, even the GFS is a decent event. Have been holding back because its early but all the models are on board now. FWIW I think even in the cities, as that heavy band of precip pushes through it will be snow and accumulate, even if low ratios. Even if the further west tracks verify I think that is true, then once the heavier bands pushed north it might end as lighter slop but for several hours during the height of the storm I think its snowing in DC and Baltimore and accumulating fairly well. A nice thump event. What I like for our area on this run is how well defined the deform band is. This run is a ton of QPF. however surface temps actually ticked up a bit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What I like for our area on this run is how well defined the deform band is. This run is a ton of QPF. however surface temps actually ticked up a bit this run. Having lived here for 9 years and experienced many borderline temp situations, I have come to not worry too much about surface temps up here. As long as the upper levels are good it seems our elevations wins out and we do fine in these type events. Eventually this attitude will burn me I am sure but so far its been fine here every time. When we did have issues it was due to warm layers aloft, never surface temps when the SLP track and upper levels were good. Now I will go knock on wood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yea, 2-3 dca seems fair for sure. NW dc could fair better. River locations will fair worse. I feeling good with 5" over/under in my yard. I think 12/5/09 and 12/10/13 are good analogs in terms of temp profiles....this could have more precip and be better organized, so maybe a bit more snow....but 1-3" for DC proper probably makes the most sense....with the places over 300' closer to 3"....I might have to go to Tenleytown for lunch.....I bet it will be a different world up there at 400'+ 12/5/09 was like 5:1 for the burbs due to mix/rain and temps.....I think that probably makes sense for you.....5:1 on whatever falls....I think 4-5" makes sense...agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The wildcard for dca is banding. I could see 4+ but it would need to be measured quick I'm preparing for parrs/parkton destruction pics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The wildcard for dca is banding. I could see 4+ but it would need to be measured quick I'm preparing for parrs/parkton destruction pics... ha...yes....actually looking closer at it....12/5/09 is a great analog....this will probably be a tad wetter and a tad colder (maybe).....IAD got 3.0" on 0.58" QPF and it was 34 during the heaviest stuff....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice run but starts as rain even out in Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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