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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal


Coach McGuirk

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3 best global models show an average of 1"+ qpf through the cities and immediate burbs at a 3 day lead. Each yard needs to decide how much rain and/or melt on contact takes away from potential. My personal over under is 5".

I think the euro unamps a little and shifts east. We'll see in an hour.

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3 best global models show an average of 1"+ qpf through the cities and immediate burbs at a 3 day lead. Each yard needs to decide how much rain and/or melt on contact takes away from potential. My personal over under is 5".

I think the euro unamps a little and shifts east. We'll see in an hour.

I'm tempted to agree.  While this might come off a bit too optimistic, I've also liked the progression of the high pressure a little further south into PA to help push out some of the warm air aloft slightly more out of the picture the last few runs (pretty much all the globals have shown an improvement there).  Perhaps that easterly nudge around Ocean City the GFS showed is due to that (and the euro will catch on). 

 

Tough call down here in central and SW Virginia, however. 850s crash but the sfc and 925mb still remain pretty warm through 10 AM (on the GFS).  I would expect snow to be falling at 7-8 AM based on soundings, but we might waste a decent amount of precip since Miller A's usually come in like a wrecking ball.  Over/under here in CHO probably about 4".

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I'm tempted to agree. While this might come off a bit too optimistic, I've also liked the progression of the high pressure a little further south into PA to help push out some of the warm air aloft slightly more out of the picture the last few runs (pretty much all the globals have shown an improvement there). Perhaps that easterly nudge around Ocean City the GFS showed is due to that (and the euro will catch on).

Tough call down here in central and SW Virginia, however. 850s crash but the sfc and 925mb still remain pretty warm through 10 AM (on the GFS). I would expect snow to be falling at 7-8 AM based on soundings, but we might waste a decent amount of precip since Miller A's usually come in like a wrecking ball. Over/under here in CHO probably about 4".

Totally agree about the bowling ball analogy in this case. It's moisture laden and fast moving with no extended lull as depicted. Should get started fast, max out, and taper quick.

Nothing like the 3/6 storm other than surface temps. I'm not worried if I start as rain because the front end stuff isn't sticking either way. As long as its snowing during the banding I'm probably in good shape for a pasting. You are as well.

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