mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Same here. It must be the website. thx....I thought I was losin' it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 how far north of you on the Para Matt?.....OK then, mby north? It's spread out through the area overnight. Best precip outside of the mountains is in s pa but we all get some. Like .05-.10 for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 how far north of you on the Para Matt?.....OK then, mby north? the vort that fosters the snow looks like it passes over me and creates a swath in southern PA...where they could get a general 1-3" I'd guess....we do get precip...maybe a <1" for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 thx....I thought I was losin' it me too, i was afraid to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM now on board with a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow...GGEM completely caved....full acquiescence...looks warm-ish....almost 1" for DC...that's it now...every model is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow...GGEM completely caved....full acquiescence...looks warm-ish....almost 1" for DC...that's it now...every model is on board well that was easy <JI>I'm already depressed about the storm being over on Thanksgiving<JI> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow...GGEM completely caved....full acquiescence...looks warm-ish....almost 1" for DC...that's it now...every model is on board Isn't a GGEM bias warm temps? Don't want to sound weenieish, but I thought that was a bias of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Isn't a GGEM bias warm temps? Don't want to sound weenieish, but I thought that was a bias of the GGEM that's what everyone said last winter and then it nailed the changeover on 2/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Snowmaps from SV has a SECS from DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 that's what everyone said last winter and then it nailed the changeover on 2/13 Ugh. You are right. Forgot about that until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 that's what everyone said last winter and then it nailed the changeover on 2/13 True it did... nice to see it come aboard... here is to the UKIE to do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I was at PSU for #1....I'm sure tenman could give a first person account of #2, given the overnight element. I think most people get non accumulating snow out of this one, while out here I get 4-6 on the grass and an inch or two of slush to shovel or squegee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM now on board with a big hit It is really quite a beauty. I am saving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 that's what everyone said last winter and then it nailed the changeover on 2/13 Big cave from the Canadian. WRT temps, it even keeps the northern MD jackpot zone warm at the sfc. 36 at 18z up there (actually, 36 pretty much area wide which is a bit weird). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UKIE good to go... 998 L 100 to 150 miles east of Ocean City at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UKIE good to go... 998 L 100 to 150 miles east of Ocean City at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 UKIE is prob 40mm or so give or take a few mm at DCA per meteogram... so 1.5" QPF or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 3 best global models show an average of 1"+ qpf through the cities and immediate burbs at a 3 day lead. Each yard needs to decide how much rain and/or melt on contact takes away from potential. My personal over under is 5". I think the euro unamps a little and shifts east. We'll see in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 3 best global models show an average of 1"+ qpf through the cities and immediate burbs at a 3 day lead. Each yard needs to decide how much rain and/or melt on contact takes away from potential. My personal over under is 5". I think the euro unamps a little and shifts east. We'll see in an hour. I'm tempted to agree. While this might come off a bit too optimistic, I've also liked the progression of the high pressure a little further south into PA to help push out some of the warm air aloft slightly more out of the picture the last few runs (pretty much all the globals have shown an improvement there). Perhaps that easterly nudge around Ocean City the GFS showed is due to that (and the euro will catch on). Tough call down here in central and SW Virginia, however. 850s crash but the sfc and 925mb still remain pretty warm through 10 AM (on the GFS). I would expect snow to be falling at 7-8 AM based on soundings, but we might waste a decent amount of precip since Miller A's usually come in like a wrecking ball. Over/under here in CHO probably about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT call 1 https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/536750635644100608 edit: sorry that's a guess. first call later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT call 1 https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/536750635644100608 edit: sorry that's a guess. first call later. he's pretty bull headed on heavy precip west. Think his zones are 25-50 miles too far west.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 he's pretty bull headed on heavy precip west. Think his zones are 25-50 miles too far west. Sent from my iPhone Depends what the euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm tempted to agree. While this might come off a bit too optimistic, I've also liked the progression of the high pressure a little further south into PA to help push out some of the warm air aloft slightly more out of the picture the last few runs (pretty much all the globals have shown an improvement there). Perhaps that easterly nudge around Ocean City the GFS showed is due to that (and the euro will catch on). Tough call down here in central and SW Virginia, however. 850s crash but the sfc and 925mb still remain pretty warm through 10 AM (on the GFS). I would expect snow to be falling at 7-8 AM based on soundings, but we might waste a decent amount of precip since Miller A's usually come in like a wrecking ball. Over/under here in CHO probably about 4". Totally agree about the bowling ball analogy in this case. It's moisture laden and fast moving with no extended lull as depicted. Should get started fast, max out, and taper quick. Nothing like the 3/6 storm other than surface temps. I'm not worried if I start as rain because the front end stuff isn't sticking either way. As long as its snowing during the banding I'm probably in good shape for a pasting. You are as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My thoughts on this system right now. http://www.hwpcwx.com/#!story1/com4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EURO out to 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks somewhat east. Paste bomb?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 EAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 998 off of OC/Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 72 hr 00z EURO has 998 mb L 150 miles or so east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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