psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 xbox finally coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If we choose to accept it... from 12z to 15z, 3 to 4 inches of snow falls according to Raleigh's 3 hr accum snow map... pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro/UK/GFS big hits. Ya i'll go with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If we choose to accept it... from 12z to 15z, 3 to 4 inches of snow falls according to Raleigh's 3 hr accum snow map... pretty decent It's a stone cold I-95 DC to Boston pasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro/UK/GFS big hits. Ya i'll go with them. that's 5-day we're obviously closer in than that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, weenie mode for a sec, but Raleigh snow map (48 hr snow accum at hr 78) shows swath of 6 to 10 inches I-95 corridor... prob cut off 25%... 4 to 6 sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 that's 5-day we're obviously closer in than that now Ya but, we all know what are the best models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 xbox finally coming around yeah...Xbox is like 0.6" for DC....it also has the bonus thursday AM.....maybe its higher res is helping pick that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 70% chance top 10 Nov snowstorm in DC 50% chance top 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 yeah...Xbox is like 0.6" for DC....it also has the bonus thursday AM.....maybe its higher res is helping pick that up based on the performance of this storm, they should make it the new short term model and trash the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 yeah...Xbox is like 0.6" for DC....it also has the bonus thursday AM.....maybe its higher res is helping pick that up The Thursday thing is the trailing vort passing with a nice track. I just doubt the ability of the models to resolve that right on the heals of the bigger event well. It could be a nice little surprise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm going to cut Xbox just a little slack with this one. It's fast flow and no block. The trailing low seemed to cause some issues at medium leads. The setup is tricky. Something to keep in mind going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 you and the rest of the NWS mets in Las Vegas? maybe more like 60/40 but I'm feeling pretty weenie on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 70% chance top 10 Nov snowstorm in DC 50% chance top 5 Curious, do you have a link to the top 10 Nov snowstorms in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 maybe more like 60/40 but I'm feeling pretty weenie on this one. does have that December 2009 feel about it generally speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, weenie mode for a sec, but Raleigh snow map (48 hr snow accum at hr 78) shows swath of 6 to 10 inches I-95 corridor... prob cut off 25%... 4 to 6 sounds right To join in, Instantweathermaps.com suggest rates of 0.8-0.9"/hr right over DC at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm going to cut Xbox just a little slack with this one. It's fast flow and no block. The trailing low seemed to cause some issues at medium leads. The setup is tricky. Something to keep in mind going forward I like the fact that each trend it makes isn't as drastic as other guidance, so the initial ots solution would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Curious, do you have a link to the top 10 Nov snowstorms in DC?Working it up for CWG. Basically 4"+ is top 5 all time for the mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I like the fact that each trend it makes isn't as drastic as other guidance, so the initial ots solution would make sense. It grossly mishandled the trailing energy for too long considering the other reliable guidance. My wag is the higher resolution is the prime reason. Error increased through time. Seems logical. When the next clean miller A with solid blocking comes in 3 weeks we can get a better feel for the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Curious, do you have a link to the top 10 Nov snowstorms in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Working it up for CWG. Basically 4"+ is top 5 all time for the mo. Thanks Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Temperature profiles for the surface and 850s looks almost identical on both 0z gfs's. The one difference is the Low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Awesome, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ahh, forgot I already posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm not sure on that #2 spot. The monthly is 7. But the dailies are 7.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Thursday thing is the trailing vort passing with a nice track. I just doubt the ability of the models to resolve that right on the heals of the bigger event well. It could be a nice little surprise though. probably will be north of me...it's damn robust on the Para.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ahh, forgot I already posted it. so 3" for the daily record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 probably will be north of me...it's damn robust on the Para.... how far north of you on the Para Matt?.....OK then, mby north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 is it my computer, or did the print font and size change on the posts not too long ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 is it my computer, or did the print font and size change on the posts not too long ago? Same here. It must be the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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