EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM slowly getting there. Only a matter of time before we are completely NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM slowly getting there. Only a matter of time before we are completely NAM'd. Um..it went definitely East from 18z to 00z. If anything its not getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM has a strung out cat and mouse missed phase. Looks kind of odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Verbatim, ~0.3" falls as snow in DC (assuming we change over at 15z) eyeballing and adding up the panels on WxBell. It actually looks like the heaviest (I use that term loosely with this run of the NAM) falls before we changeover. Good thing its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM splits the energy at H5 and thus the storm is a mess and slides east after a promising start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Um..it went definitely East from 18z to 00z. If anything its not getting there. It went slightly, but we get more frontrunning precip here in DC...so we doubled our QPF......not sure how the slight jog affected you in the Philly suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 LOL...I guess not....for your area... But this is the MA forum Overall its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Overall its east. yeah..shockingly looks like QPF decreased a bit in the Philly suburbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is the only model that has a tough time closing off the 850MB low. Also the only model that tries to close off H7 due north of the surface low. H7 almost always closes off west, northwest, or southwest of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WPC probabilistic forecasts are pretty bullish: 70%+ chance of 1" just north of I-95 and DC, but includes Bmore 50%+ chance of 4" just a hair north of the same spot, so just north of Bmore 20%+ chance for 8" in about the same area http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities And a 60-70% chance of 1" even SE of 95 to the bay. Some people are so pessimistic, it's November. They tell other people regarding other issues that "it's only November" but then in the same thread are all doom and gloom. Most people here will at least see snow falling from the sky in November, isn't that good enough for this time of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Overall its east. East for you, good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM looks strung out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM looks strung out as well. But hasn't it always been with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 But hasn't it always been with this storm? I dont know. Tonight is the first time I have looked at any weather models since last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 RGEM looks strung out as well. The storm is beyond the range of the RGEM for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The storm is beyond the range of the RGEM for now And the NAM for sure. But we still have to talk about what we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is measurably colder DCA is 32.9 and all snow by 10am...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is measurably colder DCA is 32.9 and all snow by 10am...lol there's that High you were praying for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is measurably colder DCA is 32.9 and all snow by 10am...lol Yeah but being colder... is that going to push it OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS looks better initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 63 hrs on 00z GFS has 1009 L just east of Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is a great run, looks like EURO ENS, for those worrying about East I wouldnt, I am way more worried it comes too far NW than OTS....rather snow than mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks to be a bit further east. Probably good for temps, but that's just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is close to snow sounding at 12z WED at DCA... getting ready to switch over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS actually does a similar east jog after a great start kinda like the NAM. Not as extreme and doesn't matter for DC but further north up here it makes a big difference. Weird solution but have to see if other 0z guidance starts to support such a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's an early event but GFS has that bias...it did it last year on a storm and was way wrong anyway....it may have jogged east...I haven't analyzed.... 0.9" for DCA....probably around 0.5" is snow....it's 33 by 9-10 am it is a 3am to 4pm event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's an early event but GFS has that bias...it did it last year on a storm and was way wrong anyway....it may have jogged east...I haven't analyzed.... 0.9" for DCA....probably around 0.5" is snow.... DCA is prob snow by 8am if GFS soundings are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DCA is prob snow by 8am if GFS soundings are right agreed....verbatim 8 or 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's a good run. Nice track for not having to worry too much about a warm nose. IIRC the gfs will underdo western precip extent with coastals. I'm feeling pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 watch that trailing vort too for a little mood stuff T'giving morning maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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