Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That's interesting and I didn't even bother to look at placement of any High pressures to our north. We've seen countless borderline storms bust here due to the models being a degree or two too cold...though we had a 'hostile' sun angle to deal with in most of those storms, too. So I'm used to thinking along those lines and figuring we may end up a degree or two warmer than modeled... Keeping the QPF juiced will also be important for us so we get high rates. I'll be paying attention to the placement and strength of the high on future runs now. I don't know if you remember 12/10 from last winter but we were under a WSW for 4-7" and the storm fell apart to some extent...we got 0.35" liquid which was a bit less than forecast and the dynamics sucked, but also it was warm all day so we were white rain and slop..It never cooled like it was supposed to...I got 1"...part of the reason was the dynamics blew....but pressure was around 1018mb at onset and the low was one of those wimpy 1016 lows that slid to our south...I think we are in a better place now than we were then...the cold is getting here later, but it might be more formidable, and the dynamics should be better and we should be wetter....I bet I get at least 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We aren't their coverage area but EPAWA has most of the area under 6"+, including DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Getting nuked is important. We don't want this thing to spit for hours and hours while the bands break apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't know if you remember 12/10 from last winter but we were under a WSW for 4-7" and the storm fell apart to some extent...we got 0.35" liquid which was a bit less than forecast and the dynamics sucked, but also it was warm all day so we were white rain and slop..It never cooled like it was supposed to...I got 1"...part of the reason was the dynamics blew....but pressure was around 1018mb at onset and the low was one of those wimpy 1016 lows that slid to our south...I think we are in a better place now than we were then...the cold is getting here later, but it might be more formidable, and the dynamics should be better and we should be wetter....I bet I get at least 2" Yeah, the rates sucked with that storm. I definitely agree with the bolded parts and I think thats what will differentiate this storm from that one in particular. I don't see it spitting white rain for 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 21z SREF bumped west based on NCEP maps. 1" mean now includes DC. 0.5" is just west of I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What a crap storm in DC. That really pushed me out of habit of assuming dynamics would win the day in a marginal setup. But like you said, this is a different setup...any accumulation is gravy in November, but obviously the more early padding the better. The cold air is getting here way late this time which kind of sucks...I bet we near 60 on Tuesday...could be mid 40s still at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The thing about 3/6 was the explosion down by Ric. The front overunning simply fell apart overhead as everything focused down south. The ull and se jog of the 850 killed our chances. Maybe famous last words but we sure look to be in a good spot for a decent plastering of precip over a relatively short period. Temps were marginal for 3/6 but it was also major whiff for the best dynamics. I hate even talking about that stupid storm. The sinking feeling was sickening that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The thing about 3/6 was the explosion down by Ric. The front overunning simply fell apart overhead as everything focused down south. The ull and se jog of the 850 killed our chances. Maybe famous last words but we sure look to be in a good spot for a decent plastering of precip over a relatively short period. Temps were marginal for 3/6 but it was also major whiff for the best dynamics. I hate even talking about that stupid storm. The sinking feeling was sickening that morning. The bust potential with this one is huge....but if we can get some good dynamics in the afternoon, I bet we do pretty well...2-3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looking at 12z euro I see a 1030 north of Maine at hr 84 while we are under heavy bands. Compare hour 72 from 12z to 84 from 0z. I think those are the panels I was toggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The thing about 3/6 was the explosion down by Ric. The front overunning simply fell apart overhead as everything focused down south. The ull and se jog of the 850 killed our chances. Maybe famous last words but we sure look to be in a good spot for a decent plastering of precip over a relatively short period. Temps were marginal for 3/6 but it was also major whiff for the best dynamics. I hate even talking about that stupid storm. The sinking feeling was sickening that morning. It was pretty decent here. Wind driven wettish snow accumulated about 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The bust potential with this one is huge....but if we can get some good dynamics in the afternoon, I bet we do pretty well...2-3"+I picked up 4" of daytime snow on 10/29/11 with temps 33-34 for the duration. But an inch of liquid in 8-10 hours meant great rates.I had a high of 63 on the 27th, a high of 50 on the 28th and it was still in the low 40's in the early morning hours before the snow started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The thing about 3/6 was the explosion down by Ric. The front overunning simply fell apart overhead as everything focused down south. The ull and se jog of the 850 killed our chances. Maybe famous last words but we sure look to be in a good spot for a decent plastering of precip over a relatively short period. Temps were marginal for 3/6 but it was also major whiff for the best dynamics. I hate even talking about that stupid storm. The sinking feeling was sickening that morning. That storm sucked even here. By the end of the day there was barely anything left on the ground and it was near 40 degrees. After the initial burst that gave us most of the accumulation rates were mediocre at best. I really don't see any similarities with this upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That storm sucked even here. By the end of the day there was barely anything left on the ground and it was near 40 degrees. After the initial burst that gave us most of the accumulation rates were mediocre at best. I really don't see any similarities with this upcoming storm. That storm sucked, when we got 5" really quick early that morning it got my hopes up but then the rest of the day was just light snow with sun through the clouds and the temperature steadily rising as the snow turned to slop. Very much a letdown to end a crappy season. I was out west skiing when the late March storm hit that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF plumes pretty much have everything on the table for dca. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141123&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=37.58349703954263&mLON=-83.633840598917&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF plumes pretty much have everything on the table for dca. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141123&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=37.58349703954263&mLON=-83.633840598917&mTYP=roadmap0-15" seems like a safe forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 SREF plumes pretty much have everything on the table for dca. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141123&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=37.58349703954263&mLON=-83.633840598917&mTYP=roadmap Everything except temps near freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That storm sucked, when we got 5" really quick early that morning it got my hopes up but then the rest of the day was just light snow with sun through the clouds and the temperature steadily rising as the snow turned to slop. Very much a letdown to end a crappy season. I was out west skiing when the late March storm hit that year. I think we were expecting close to a foot and like you said things got off to a great start then quickly fizzled. You might remember that there were warning signs the day before because the models began focusing on the initial bands of moisture being the best and then it would slowly snow itself out with light to moderate for a long period before ending which figured to be okay but we just had no idea the temps would end up so bad as the day wore on. The 3/25 storm was much more tolerable because expectations weren't nearly as high because it was so late in the season. Did manage to get 4-5 inches of slop with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I picked up 4" of daytime snow on 10/29/11 with temps 33-34 for the duration. But an inch of liquid in 8-10 hours meant great rates. I had a high of 63 on the 27th, a high of 50 on the 28th and it was still in the low 40's in the early morning hours before the snow started. Sounds similar to how the next few days may play out for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think we were expecting close to a foot and like you said things got off to a great start then quickly fizzled. You might remember that there were warning signs the day before because the models began focusing on the initial bands of moisture being the best and then it would slowly snow itself out with light to moderate for a long period before ending which figured to be okay but we just had no idea the temps would end up so bad as the day wore on. The 3/25 storm was much more tolerable because expectations weren't nearly as high because it was so late in the season. Did manage to get 4-5 inches of slop with that one. I liked it most for the wind aspect even if it wasn't accumulating beyond 9am or so it was the wind with the snow combined that I remember the most. Pretty cool looking for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 WPC probabilistic forecasts are pretty bullish: 70%+ chance of 1" just north of I-95 and DC, but includes Bmore 50%+ chance of 4" just a hair north of the same spot, so just north of Bmore 20%+ chance for 8" in about the same area http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I liked it most for the wind aspect even if it wasn't accumulating beyond 9am or so it was the wind with the snow combined that I remember the most. Pretty cool looking for hours on end. I would say the 10/29/11 storm was much better than both the March 2013 storms. For some reason have no recollection of the wind associated with 3/6/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM looks like it is going to come more west looking at the Panel 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 57 00z NAM 1013 L SE of NC/SC border by ~100 miles or so 60 00z NAM 1012 L S of Cape Hatteras... looks like NAM is coming aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM looks a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 63 due east of Cape Hatteras 1011mb... 66 1008mb due east of VA/NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM is colder for you guys for sure. Better run overall it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 57 00z NAM 1013 L SE of NC/SC border by ~100 miles or so 60 00z NAM 1012 L S of Cape Hatteras... looks like NAM is coming aboard Rain to snow ~15Z Wed at dca on instantweathermaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would say the 10/29/11 storm was much better than both the March 2013 storms. For some reason have no recollection of the wind associated with 3/6/13. I think that had some strange banding and I was under some of the heavier stuff which came with the stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DCA is snow sounding at 63 (15z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Only a couple of the SREF members support a 12z Euro like closed 850mb low over the CT/NY border and there all ARWs. In other words the euro was probably too amped up further up the coast, don't know if it matters for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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