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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal


Coach McGuirk

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I'm not too worried. It will accumulate on the grass and decks etc.. Last year I got about 6" from a storm in January and it never got below 33 for most of the storm. 1/26/11 I stayed at 34-35 and got 7.8", but I know those were some crazy rates and a different set up.

I am just hoping for some snow tv. The people who are disappointed seem to want snow on the roads and sidewalks. Just be happy snow is falling from the sky in November.

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I don't see that at all....at least here in DC...950mb to the surface is pretty bad until late morning..

Yeah there is a cold tuck around 18z when the low is bombing east of VB.The SW to NE elongation may help with a cold tuck despite there not being a lot of cold air behind the system.

 

Also looks like there is a lot of wet bulbing when the precip starts we knock a good 2-3c off of our 850mb temps when the column saturates.

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probably the place we want to be than the operationals in agreement in our favor while the  ens. are worse

not that anything could go wrong in 60 hours....crazy to even think or mention it :wacko2:

 

I have to slow down or I will burn myself out which I did last year on almost every event....

 

Obligatory storm commentary - I'm sticking with my algorithm from last night which gives me like 2.2"

 

Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total.

 

 

 

zwyts 97 Bob Chill 42 C.A.P.E. 37 yoda 28 mitchnick 28 WxUSAF 28 Highzenberg 25 BTRWx 23 EasternUSWX 17 Ian 16 nj2va 15 Amped 14 PhineasC 13 winter_warlock 13

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We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy sref base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there.

So is it good scoop that more Euro ensembles are used now than SREF members? Thanks for your imput.

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It's seem easy to envision the initial overunning precip either starting as rain or non-accum snow for just about everyone. Once the 850 gets cranking and approaches VA capes, the typical coastal storm bands move in then we'll see how it goes.

A typical outcome is the heaviest bands will be further nw than modeled but most everyone from the cities and West should put something on the books with this one.

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I would go with something like the 12z EPS is showing. Will likely start as plain rain for everyone regardless it starts before sunrise Wednesday. During the day Wednesday when the models are putting down the heaviest QPF, that is where we have the potential for 1/4SM +SN. If we indeed do get the same look as 12z EPS/18z GFS, etc, it will all come down to where the banding sets up. This storm really reminds me of 3/6/13 except with a better sun angle. I believe DCA has a shot of a light accumulation.

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I would go with something like the 12z EPS is showing. Will likely start as plain rain for everyone regardless it starts before sunrise Wednesday. During the day Wednesday when the models are putting down the heaviest QPF, that is where we have the potential for 1/4SM +SN. If we indeed do get the same look as 12z EPS/18z GFS, etc, it will all come down to where the banding sets up. This storm really reminds me of 3/6/13 except with a better sun angle. I believe DCA has a shot of a light accumulation.

AGREED,  im hoping we get enough evaporative cooling to knock temps down even more,

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Just based on climo, I'd say that the profiles are unlikely to end up supporting more than rain - slop - rain in downtown DC; I could see a few inches on the grass in the close-in NW burbs - but not sure about street stickage until after dark...  That's just my own uneducated guess...  TBH, all I really care about in November is whether OPM has their eyes on the forecast yet....

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AGREED,  im hoping we get enough evaporative cooling to knock temps down even more,

GFS 2m wetbulbs are marginal, I wouldn't anticipate to much help regards to drier air working it's way in and cooling things down that much further.

 

Never the less, the GFS simulated Skew-T are looking good from what I can tell.

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Just based on climo, I'd say that the profiles are unlikely to end up supporting more than rain - slop - rain in downtown DC; I could see a few inches on the grass in the close-in NW burbs - but not sure about street stickage until after dark...  That's just my own uneducated guess...  TBH, all I really care about in November is whether OPM has their eyes on the forecast yet....

Does "climo" mean that 33 degrees in November is different than in March?

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