Ltrain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'm not too worried. It will accumulate on the grass and decks etc.. Last year I got about 6" from a storm in January and it never got below 33 for most of the storm. 1/26/11 I stayed at 34-35 and got 7.8", but I know those were some crazy rates and a different set up. I am just hoping for some snow tv. The people who are disappointed seem to want snow on the roads and sidewalks. Just be happy snow is falling from the sky in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GEFS mean is about 0.8" for DC...OP has a lot of support from the members though a tad on the western side of the group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I don't see that at all....at least here in DC...950mb to the surface is pretty bad until late morning.. Yeah there is a cold tuck around 18z when the low is bombing east of VB.The SW to NE elongation may help with a cold tuck despite there not being a lot of cold air behind the system. Also looks like there is a lot of wet bulbing when the precip starts we knock a good 2-3c off of our 850mb temps when the column saturates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GEFS mean is about 0.8" for DC...OP has a lot of support from the members though a tad on the western side of the group just from what you posted, it sounds like the 18z GEFS and 12z Euro ens. are pretty close to one another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GEFS mean is about 0.8" for DC...OP has a lot of support from the members though a tad on the western side of the group That's good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just from what you posted, it sounds like the 18z GEFS and 12z Euro ens. are pretty close to one another yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yup probably the place we want to be than the operationals in agreement in our favor while the ens. are worse not that anything could go wrong in 60 hours....crazy to even think or mention it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 probably the place we want to be than the operationals in agreement in our favor while the ens. are worse not that anything could go wrong in 60 hours....crazy to even think or mention it I have to slow down or I will burn myself out which I did last year on almost every event.... Obligatory storm commentary - I'm sticking with my algorithm from last night which gives me like 2.2" Average of (3/16/07+12/5/03+12/5/09+3/6/13+12/8/13+12/10/13+3/25/14+10/29/11) x 1.75 = total. zwyts 97 Bob Chill 42 C.A.P.E. 37 yoda 28 mitchnick 28 WxUSAF 28 Highzenberg 25 BTRWx 23 EasternUSWX 17 Ian 16 nj2va 15 Amped 14 PhineasC 13 winter_warlock 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy sref base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there. So is it good scoop that more Euro ensembles are used now than SREF members? Thanks for your imput. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So is it good scoop that more Euro ensembles are used now than SREF members? Thanks for your imput. Same number of SREF members but add 25 ENS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's seem easy to envision the initial overunning precip either starting as rain or non-accum snow for just about everyone. Once the 850 gets cranking and approaches VA capes, the typical coastal storm bands move in then we'll see how it goes. A typical outcome is the heaviest bands will be further nw than modeled but most everyone from the cities and West should put something on the books with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW FROM WPC(HPC).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I would go with something like the 12z EPS is showing. Will likely start as plain rain for everyone regardless it starts before sunrise Wednesday. During the day Wednesday when the models are putting down the heaviest QPF, that is where we have the potential for 1/4SM +SN. If we indeed do get the same look as 12z EPS/18z GFS, etc, it will all come down to where the banding sets up. This storm really reminds me of 3/6/13 except with a better sun angle. I believe DCA has a shot of a light accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I would go with something like the 12z EPS is showing. Will likely start as plain rain for everyone regardless it starts before sunrise Wednesday. During the day Wednesday when the models are putting down the heaviest QPF, that is where we have the potential for 1/4SM +SN. If we indeed do get the same look as 12z EPS/18z GFS, etc, it will all come down to where the banding sets up. This storm really reminds me of 3/6/13 except with a better sun angle. I believe DCA has a shot of a light accumulation. AGREED, im hoping we get enough evaporative cooling to knock temps down even more, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 4-8 final call imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 4-8 final call imby LWX probability charts actually support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First Winter Storm Watch tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 4-8 final call imby even that would be a nice snowstorm for November. I could definably live with that here in sparrows point md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 First Winter Storm Watch tomorrow? Good question. They may decide to go with those tomorrow due to the heavy travel day on Wednesday and potential impact; they can always adjust to a WWA on Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just based on climo, I'd say that the profiles are unlikely to end up supporting more than rain - slop - rain in downtown DC; I could see a few inches on the grass in the close-in NW burbs - but not sure about street stickage until after dark... That's just my own uneducated guess... TBH, all I really care about in November is whether OPM has their eyes on the forecast yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 AGREED, im hoping we get enough evaporative cooling to knock temps down even more, GFS 2m wetbulbs are marginal, I wouldn't anticipate to much help regards to drier air working it's way in and cooling things down that much further. Never the less, the GFS simulated Skew-T are looking good from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Just based on climo, I'd say that the profiles are unlikely to end up supporting more than rain - slop - rain in downtown DC; I could see a few inches on the grass in the close-in NW burbs - but not sure about street stickage until after dark... That's just my own uneducated guess... TBH, all I really care about in November is whether OPM has their eyes on the forecast yet.... Does "climo" mean that 33 degrees in November is different than in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I wonder if with it being a busy holiday weekend if that will change the warning criteria?? so lesser snow amounts may call for a warning because its a holiday weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does "climo" mean that 33 degrees in November is different than in March? lol good point, in my opinion, 33 degrees is 33 degrees no matter what month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS 2m wetbulbs are marginal, I wouldn't anticipate to much help regards to drier air working it's way in and cooling things down that much further. Never the less, the GFS simulated Skew-T are looking good from what I can tell. looking good for what part? im in Baltimore county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think they'll go for a watch in the colder burbs... probably not for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Does "climo" mean that 33 degrees in November is different than in March? And we're only 10 days away from a date that has numerous snows in the last decade. Temps are marginal but still 15-20 below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think they'll go for a watch in the colder burbs... probably not for the coastal plain. well ur probably right but I was thinking when they finally do they may go for the watch area wide initially and downgrade it in certain areas when they fine tune it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 lol good point, in my opinion, 33 degrees is 33 degrees no matter what month Disagree. Sun-angle in late Nov is far different than March. I'll take my chances with a border-line event now far more than I would in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I don't think it will. IMO, they can effectively communicate that a storm is coming/likely impacts tomorrow through other means. ahh ok ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.