Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18Z GFS is about as good as this can get IMO, wish we could lock it in. Agreed. Perfwct track and about 1.1" for DC. Still Temp issues but very pretty. Xbox on board now too though not as wet. Canada only hold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Agreed. Perfwct track and about 1.1" for DC. Still Temp issues but very pretty. Xbox on board now too though not as wet. Canada only hold out Low-level temps are a touch warmer on this run vs. 12z. Very borderline below 925 between 12-18z. After 18z it looks fine for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 For DC Atari around 1.1" Xbox around .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Low-level temps are a touch warmer on this run vs. 12z. Very borderline below 925 between 12- 18z. After 18z it looks fine for everyone. If we want a wet event there is probably no avoiding issues for Most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 850mb 0C line stays outh of DCA and PHL while it skims NYC and BOS. It's about 50 miles south of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 New GFS took a step towards the GFS but it still has the low in the great lakes shunting the coastal OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think its pretty safe to say that Wednesday will be a crap show for traveling. Whether wet or white, huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If we want a wet event there is probably no avoiding issues for Most of us. Yeah, it's always a balance. 18z is faster than 12z also. Most of the precip falls in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Low-level temps are a touch warmer on this run vs. 12z. Very borderline below 925 between 12-18z. After 18z it looks fine for everyone. Yeah, for DCA, its above freezing at 12z 925 & below, but fine by 18z. To get a wet scenario, we'll have to roll the dice with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If we want a wet event there is probably no avoiding issues for Most of us. Yep, all too true. Especially for this time of year and coming off a couple or so very warm days. I know that "prior warmth" may not be nearly as big a deal but it's not like temperatures will plummet into the 20s (or less) like they did this past January and March for those events that occurred after warm highs. Still, getting a good coating in late November is quite the feat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, it's always a balance. 18z is faster than 12z also. Most of the precip falls in the morning. That's a bit disconcerting to see, though at this point parsing differences in each cycle may be irrelevant I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 How do temps compare with Noquester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going to have to watch the 500mb energy coming through on the backside of the trough behind the coastal. It makes a nice pass through VA. I could easily see the snow shutting off Wednesday evening and then another burst happening 6-12 hours later to provide another coating-1". Did the Euro show anything with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Going to have to watch the 500mb energy coming through on the backside of the trough behind the coastal. It makes a nice pass through VA. I could easily see the snow shutting off Wednesday evening and then another burst happening 6-12 hours later to provide another coating-1". Did the Euro show anything with that? That's an interesting scenario...in fact I was curious about that second vort coming through afterward, it's been showing up for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 SFC at DCA and based on 18z GFS soundings 9z - 40 - def rain 12z - 37 - def rain 15z - 35 - probably rain 18z - 33-34 - probably snow 21z - 33 - def snow 0z - 33 - def snow so about 0.4" would fall as snow...with some accumulation...I could see 2" for the city....maybe 3" for upper northwest...this is based on the model...not my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 How do temps compare with Noquester? slightly better, but the GFS shows BL issues until early afternoon for the low lying areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Last few runs look pretty cold following the storm. Most of the region stays below freezing for highs on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 SFC at DCA and based on 18z GFS soundings 9z - 40 - def rain 12z - 37 - def rain 15z - 35 - probably rain 18z - 33-34 - probably snow 21z - 33 - def snow 0z - 33 - def snow so about 0.4" would fall as snow...with some accumulation...I could see 2" for the city....maybe 3" for upper northwest...this is based on the model...not my forecast Pretty reasonable taking the model verbatim. Not anything crippling, but given the time of day and the travel, you know even that would be a potentially big problem (not Commutageddon levels...how about Gobble-gobble-geddon?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty reasonable taking the model verbatim. Not anything crippling, but given the time of day and the travel, you know even that would be a potentially big problem (not Commutageddon levels...how about Gobble-gobble-geddon?). Surely this will lead the evening national news on both Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe Monday if it looks good then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The whole 12hrs of rain changing to snow doesn't make sense. The cold air is better on the front of this setup, and there is a weak 850mb crash well after the precip shuts off. My guess is we get a thump snow after maybe 20 minutes of evap cooling and then change back to rain towards the end as the precip lightens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wow...just my luck. Looking pretty good for a east coast special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LWX has updated its forecast maps... We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy sref base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy seed base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there. Thanks for the explanation of changes...appreciate your insight into the products and the storm. I like that you are including Euro members into the product. I think its a good first forecast given current guidance. ETA: Once the new GFS is formally put into production, will you eventually look to include members in the forecast? Higher resolution should support better results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy sref base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there. Awesome, glad you're back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The whole 12hrs of rain changing to snow doesn't make sense. The cold air is better on the front of this setup, and there is a weak 850mb crash well after the precip shuts off. My guess is we get a thump snow after maybe 20 minutes of evap cooling and then change back to rain towards the end as the precip lightens. I don't see that at all....at least here in DC...950mb to the surface is pretty bad until late morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Awesome, glad you're back! Thanks... Good to be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 We took a good amount of feedback into account and improved these maps. We took out the wording of 10 and 90 percentile and left as min and max potential since that is the message we want to get across to our customers...a goal post of possibilities. Color scheme has been updated. Other change from WPC was to increase the number of ensemble members to 57 in contrast to 32 from last year. Extra 25 members are all random runs of the euro ensembles....better weighing vs a heavy sref base. We still use WPC 10 and 90 percentile as our starting point then tweak from there. I presented to DC council with Steve Zubrick a week ago and he discussed it a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think that will wind up being a really good change. Looks like it'll get a good early workout. If you find any issues with this method will you adjust on the fly or wait until next season? The 57 member ensembles I believe are a done deal... At least for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS skew-T for IAD, looks pretty good at 1pm 7am 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I presented to DC council with Steve Zubrick a week ago and he discussed it a bit Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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