Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO ens mean trended NW yes, but still east of the OP IF we could hol it there, I'd be happy. Looks pretty wet yes...around 0.9" for DC is my guess... As far west as the EURO op? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Since no one has mentioned the SREF snow plumes... The mean for DC... 5" Slightly more east, slightly less west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Since no one has mentioned the SREF snow plumes... The mean for DC... 5" Slightly more east, slightly less west Yes and I assume it also gives them 10% chance of 4"+ even though the mean is 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM might be about to jump on the west train, looks quite different from 12z though hour 54. Precip reaches cities, still well east of Euro, between GFS and GGEM it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WPC prefers the 12z GFS with average confidence, feeling the Euro and UKIE are too amped. In general, blending all guidance, as can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM is starting to come around to the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, DT thinks the EURO is correct. He says "likely rain over I-95 and end as snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM is west. Not sure if it'll get sig precip to our area, but def different than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 NAM might be about to jump on the west train, looks quite different from 12z though hour 54. Precip reaches cities, still well east of Euro, GFS and probably more inline with GGEM. It's a pretty marked jog west....not that it has any skill at this range.....so GGEM/Para vs the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, DT thinks the EURO is correct. He says "likely rain over I-95 and end as snow". When doesn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, DT thinks the EURO is correct. He says "likely rain over I-95 and end as snow". DT almost always thinks the Euro is correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 When doesn't he? DT almost always thinks the Euro is correct.. Yeah, I know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WPC prefers the 12z GFS with average confidence, feeling the Euro and UKIE are too amped. In general, blending all guidance, as can be expected. Good point. FWIW I have noticed over the past couple months that the euro has been too amplified in the medium to extended range with trough depth and deepening of lows. It still could very well be on to something here with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LWX has updated its forecast maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 my favorite map has returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 bullish Is that an official product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LWX has updated its forecast maps... It's a very good first map, very fair knowing what the temps will be. The max map is also very interesting, as it shows that if temps come together the Metro areas could outperform Mt. Parkton. Also, loving the new colors. Never liked all the red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Is that an official product? yeah http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow you can also do the other probability maps with more contours there. like the western burbs are 20% for 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yeah http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow you can also do the other probability maps with more contours there. like the western burbs are 20% for 8"+. But most areas are under 1" for the 25th percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, I know lol. I kind of agree. November SSTS would favor a track closer to the coast and the shape of the Western Atlantic ridge would favor a hook and ladder into SNE. However I'd like to see the GGEM and the Xbox on board before going with the western most solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That is an early call. Interesting to see but I won't put too much stock in it. Yeah, early call (which I can understand as that's Thanksgiving travel). But not that unreasonable at this point to be honest. At least, doesn't seem so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Not that it means much at this point, but the usual misalignment between LWX and Mount Holly on their forecast maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS looks like it ticked west through 57hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GfS is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS 1009mb L directly S of Outer Banks at 69... 1005mb at 72 right over Outer Banks or just east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 1"+ for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It looks colder on the surface, heavy precip seems to be drawing down cold air better than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nice, if only we can stop the trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18Z GFS is about as good as this can get IMO, wish we could lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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